Jolle wrote: ↑05 Mar 2021, 20:32
I admire the faith many Ferrari fans have on here, but in reality Ferrari might be the one that will be hit the most with the cost cap.
The whole organisation is used to throw almost unlimited resources and money towards any problem they encounter. This is a structural thing within the organisation. McLaren had the same attitude when it was part of PMI, Daimler and later Honda, when they were cut loose and had a budget, they needed a big restructure to work in a different manner and have different goals. Ferrari will have to do the same (as will RedBull and Mercedes of course). The difference between the top two and Ferrari is that Ferrari hasn't been stable for years and their current platform isn't that developed. Their engine design needs a major upgrade and was last year clearly last on the grid, their chassis looks like a car from three years ago and there is openly criticism on the people in charge.
This mindset and change of structure takes time, which there isn't any before 2022. So, it wouldn't surprise me if Ferrari is stuck between McLaren and Aston Martin (and possible Renault) for the foreseeable future.
The cost cap takes away Ferrari's biggest strong point: the "by any means possible"
It's also not very confidence inspiring to have Binotto leading the team in such an incredibly critical transition stage. I like Binotto a lot, but fear his expertise was best utilized in his previous role and not as team principal, much like how in the NFL, offensive coordinators can be amazing at their job and then fail totally at the head coaching position since they have so many other responsibilities and cant focus on what they do best anymore.
I do expect a step forward from Ferrari this season, at least to some degree, since last season was quite pitiful, but yea, they're coming from quite far back in basically every respect and nobody should be expecting them to step back into the fray as regular podium contenders. But a step forward is still needed, just to prove to themselves they can move in the right direction.
As for 2022, that's pretty uncertain. I still wouldn't bet a single penny on Mercedes not being well ahead of everybody, but it should also provide some surprises. Easy enough to just look at the season before and expect a continuation of that, or to write Ferrari's chances of having a good car off completely, but 2017 also showed the team is capable of being one of these surprises, under leadership nobody expected to be able to do anything. So we'll see. I'm not making any predictions.
