2021 AMG Mercedes F1 Team

[Just_a_fan]

Then again I could be wrong, McLaren typically sandbags heavily in testing, it's their way, they make it a point to never make headlines during testing. However the long runs and speed traces show they have a fair bit in hand, then again Mercedes could have been sandbagging even more. They admitted they were carrying a fair bit of fuel.

There was a RBR/Ferrari/Merc lap comparison graph posted recently that showed the Mercedes to be well down on top speed on the straights, suggesting they weren't running the PU too hard. Maybe Red Bull and Ferrari have leap-frogged by Mercedes in the PU output stakes, but I think we would think that unlikely. There was also a time gained/lost comparison and the Merc was gainign time over everyone in the first third of the lap before suddenly losing time - a big drop coming out of turn 13, suggesting the right foot was not being pushed down too hard.

The Merc trace had all the looks of someone trying really hard not to be fast.

One of two things is true - either Mercedes have built a diva and they're going to struggle this year, or they've built a total weapon and were sandbagging like crazy. Why sandbag?

We'll find out soon enough. I'm not sure I've seen so much expectation for a new season on this forum for a few years. There's a lot of people going to be very happy or very unhappy one way or another.

[godlameroso]

I expect them to be close, race pace tells all, you won't bother sand bagging if you're testing race pace. You can gain and lose on the lap easily depending where and how you deploy.

Say turn 12, it's easy flat, but you can gain or lose time if you do or don't deploy. You ask how can you lose time on a flat corner? Easy, if you stop deploying, you scrub speed through the corner. This gives you a better entry to 13 because you're going slower. If you deploy you gain speed, but 13 becomes more difficult to setup because you approach faster.

If you take too long to deploy coming out of 11 you can lose a lot of speed, but if you deploy too much too soon you'll go wide or spin.

But if you deploy on those speed scrubbing corners, you lose a bit of deployment on the straights, likewise if you deploy only on straights, then you lose the ability to deploy on those speed scrubbing corners. You have a limited amount of deploy, and even less on race pace.

[F1Krof]

The Merc trace had all the looks of someone trying really hard not to be fast.

One of two things is true - either Mercedes have built a diva and they're going to struggle this year, or they've built a total weapon and were sandbagging like crazy. Why sandbag?

I find it hard to believe what you are stating if Toto's statement is honest (which I think it is).

Toto Wolff: "For this year they had reduced the aerodynamics of the floor a lot and that's a bigger cut especially for teams like us (low rake) than for cars with a high rake. And you could see in testing that we fell behind a bit more than the others."

[aMessageToCharlie]

The Merc trace had all the looks of someone trying really hard not to be fast.

One of two things is true - either Mercedes have built a diva and they're going to struggle this year, or they've built a total weapon and were sandbagging like crazy. Why sandbag?

I find it hard to believe what you are stating if Toto's statement is honest (which I think it is).

Toto Wolff: "For this year they had reduced the aerodynamics of the floor a lot and that's a bigger cut especially for teams like us (low rake) than for cars with a high rake. And you could see in testing that we fell behind a bit more than the others."

What makes you think after 7 years of Toto downplaying Mercs strenght while scoring 1-2s at every race, that it's any different now?

THAT is what's actually hard to believe.

[Just_a_fan]

The Merc trace had all the looks of someone trying really hard not to be fast.

One of two things is true - either Mercedes have built a diva and they're going to struggle this year, or they've built a total weapon and were sandbagging like crazy. Why sandbag?

I find it hard to believe what you are stating if Toto's statement is honest (which I think it is).

I suggest you read the whole of what I wrote, in its entirety and without skipping straight to the bits you want to object to.

I gave an either/or choice. Either the car is a diva or it's as capable as ever. We don't know and won't know until they hit the track for real. You can take Wolff's comments at face value or you can take them with a pinch of salt. Again, we won't know the truth until the cars hit the track for real.

[dans79]

The Merc trace had all the looks of someone trying really hard not to be fast.

One of two things is true - either Mercedes have built a diva and they're going to struggle this year, or they've built a total weapon and were sandbagging like crazy. Why sandbag?

I find it hard to believe what you are stating if Toto's statement is honest (which I think it is).

Toto Wolff: "For this year they had reduced the aerodynamics of the floor a lot and that's a bigger cut especially for teams like us (low rake) than for cars with a high rake. And you could see in testing that we fell behind a bit more than the others."

Well, his own technical staff disagrees with him on the low rake vs high rake point.

No to mention what we sall in testing was a car that was either not balance properly, couldn't get the softer tires working, or had some minor aerodynamic instability.

It could easily be all of the above and some minor tweaks has it worked out by this weekend.

[mkay]

I personally don't think the car is slow, I think it will be like last year for RBR, the car will be fast but hard to drive, and on race pace it will probably be right up there. It may get outqualified by McLaren occasionally though. Hamilton will be able to fight, but he'll have a hell of a time, it will be an important year for him because he will be tested. Winning is possible, but unlike the last 7 years, he'll have to deal with pressure from his rivals. Bottas will fare similar to Albon and Gasley, mixing it up in the midfield unless the car qualifies well. It's harder to get past the midfield cars because neither Red Bull nor Mercedes is as far ahead as they were last year, they can no longer lap the field at 3/4 race distance.

Then again I could be wrong, McLaren typically sandbags heavily in testing, it's their way, they make it a point to never make headlines during testing. However the long runs and speed traces show they have a fair bit in hand, then again Mercedes could have been sandbagging even more. They admitted they were carrying a fair bit of fuel.

From my simulations, a very fast car on long runs should be capable of mid 34's low 35's. That is assuming the cars have lost some performance from last year. If the performance is similar, on heavy fuel loads the pace should be low 34's finishing in the 32's.

Have you forgotten about 08, 14, 17, 18 or even 07, 10, 16? I personally don't think Hamilton has anything left to prove in a title fight; he's already done it more than a handful of time, and has won more often than not.

If anything, if Red Bull is as competitive as they have been in testing, the spotlight will entirely be on Verstappen and Perez both of whom are unproven in a title fight. Obviously, it will help if their machinery is faster, but is by no means a guarantee.

[godlameroso]

2008 against lesser drivers in competitive cars.

2014 Hamilton had no competition.

2017 the Mercedes was a faster car overall even though Ferrari had a bit more downforce.

2018 Ferrari unraveled their own championship and RBR was too late to the party.

Hamilton has never had a season long rival on his level besides Alonso.

I'm very interested in seeing how Hamilton deals with a competitive car and a driver on his level.

[Just_a_fan]

2008 against lesser drivers in competitive cars.

Ferrari won the manufacturer's title with Massa taking 6 victories to Hamilton's 5. Kimi was the reigning champion in the other Ferrari although only taking 2 victories. It went down to the last corner of the last race. Not sure how much more competition a guy has to win against for it to be considered a worthwhile title.

[godlameroso]

Massa's 6 victories were overshadowed by the range of blunders and mistakes that punctuated his season. From throwing away the win in Monaco, to his disaster in Silverstone, and his folly in Singapore, beaching the car in Malaysia while leading(although that may have been 2007). Also remember how strong BMW Sauber was in 2008, Kubica was in contention for the championship until after he won in Canada.

Hamilton drove well, but it wasn't him fighting incredible odds, he was kept in contention by BMW's early season pace, and Ferrari's blunders, just as he was kept in contention in 2018 by those same blunders.

[JPower]

2008 against lesser drivers in competitive cars.

2014 Hamilton had no competition.

2017 the Mercedes was a faster car overall even though Ferrari had a bit more downforce.

2018 Ferrari unraveled their own championship and RBR was too late to the party.

Hamilton has never had a season long rival on his level besides Alonso.

I'm very interested in seeing how Hamilton deals with a competitive car and a driver on his level.

Oh brother.

[mkay]

2008 against lesser drivers in competitive cars.

Ferrari won the manufacturer's title with Massa taking 6 victories to Hamilton's 5. Kimi was the reigning champion in the other Ferrari although only taking 2 victories. It went down to the last corner of the last race. Not sure how much more competition a guy has to win against for it to be considered a worthwhile title.

Exactly. Using godlameroso's criteria, most champions would be unproven given either (i) "perceived" lack of competition (if rival drivers are deemed inferior for whatever reason, or if the champion's machinery is deemed superior), or (ii) disregarding intra-team rivalry.

[godlameroso]

2008 against lesser drivers in competitive cars.

Ferrari won the manufacturer's title with Massa taking 6 victories to Hamilton's 5. Kimi was the reigning champion in the other Ferrari although only taking 2 victories. It went down to the last corner of the last race. Not sure how much more competition a guy has to win against for it to be considered a worthwhile title.

Exactly. Using godlameroso's criteria, most champions are therefore unproven given either (i) "perceived" lack of competition, (ii) marginally superior machinery, or (iii) disregarding intra-team rivalry.

2006 was a well earned championship, Alonso and Schumacher both had very strong cars and could fight for the win.

1998 and 1999 both well earned championships.

Hell even 2012 were well earned.

I take nothing away from Hamilton and his achievements, he's beaten* every team mate he's raced against. He's beaten his direct competitors so far, but he's never faced someone of his same caliber in a similar caliber car, and he will this season, which is what makes it so interesting. If this offends the Mercedes group think, so be it.

We all know that 2016, Rosberg capitalized on every single instance he could, and that was the only reason he beat Hamilton, it was just a matter of making fewer mistakes because Rosberg knows he couldn't beat him on race pace.

[SiLo]

Ferrari won the manufacturer's title with Massa taking 6 victories to Hamilton's 5. Kimi was the reigning champion in the other Ferrari although only taking 2 victories. It went down to the last corner of the last race. Not sure how much more competition a guy has to win against for it to be considered a worthwhile title.

Exactly. Using godlameroso's criteria, most champions are therefore unproven given either (i) "perceived" lack of competition, (ii) marginally superior machinery, or (iii) disregarding intra-team rivalry.

2006 was a well earned championship, Alonso and Schumacher both had very strong cars and could fight for the win.

1998 and 1999 both well earned championships.

Hell even 2012 were well earned.

I take nothing away from Hamilton and his achievements, he's beaten* every team mate he's raced against. He's beaten his direct competitors so far, but he's never faced someone of his same caliber in a similar caliber car, and he will this season, which is what makes it so interesting. If this offends the Mercedes group think, so be it.

We all know that 2016, Rosberg capitalized on every single instance he could, and that was the only reason he beat Hamilton, it was just a matter of making fewer mistakes because Rosberg knows he couldn't beat him on race pace.

Pretty hard for one of the greatest drivers the sport has ever seen to face people of a similar calibre. It was the same for Schumacher, except he had a team that didn't bother offering both drivers similar status until it was clear to favour one over the other.

Personally, that belief is incredibly short sighted and is basically saying that if you dominate and beat everyone easily it's earned less than having someone else close for an entire season. The best of the best all have seasons where they destroyed everyone, simply because they were so good and that should absolutely not be held against them in a negative way.

[godlameroso]

Exactly. Using godlameroso's criteria, most champions are therefore unproven given either (i) "perceived" lack of competition, (ii) marginally superior machinery, or (iii) disregarding intra-team rivalry.

2006 was a well earned championship, Alonso and Schumacher both had very strong cars and could fight for the win.

1998 and 1999 both well earned championships.

Hell even 2012 were well earned.

I take nothing away from Hamilton and his achievements, he's beaten* every team mate he's raced against. He's beaten his direct competitors so far, but he's never faced someone of his same caliber in a similar caliber car, and he will this season, which is what makes it so interesting. If this offends the Mercedes group think, so be it.

We all know that 2016, Rosberg capitalized on every single instance he could, and that was the only reason he beat Hamilton, it was just a matter of making fewer mistakes because Rosberg knows he couldn't beat him on race pace.

Pretty hard for one of the greatest drivers the sport has ever seen to face people of a similar calibre. It was the same for Schumacher, except he had a team that didn't bother offering both drivers similar status until it was clear to favour one over the other.

Personally, that belief is incredibly short sighted and is basically saying that if you dominate and beat everyone easily it's earned less than having someone else close for an entire season. The best of the best all have seasons where they destroyed everyone, simply because they were so good and that should absolutely not be held against them in a negative way.

Not only is it hard for him to find racers of similar caliber, but also hard to find racers with cars of similar caliber making it all the more lopsided. All I'm saying is, there are drivers on his level in F1 right now, he's not peerless, nor will he be forever. And now that driver has a similar caliber car, the two elements align and it will test him. I'm not saying Hamilton is bad, far from it, it's a titanic duel and you should look forward to it! It's something you'll only get to see once in your lifetime.