I`ve read on another forum that it wasn`t 2021 aero regs the hardest thing that hit them. Instead, it was the tyres that now faces 2 big problems:
1.Firstly and the most important fact is that the 2021 tyre has a harder rubber chemical composition (that`s the reason they lose now almost 1s/lap, tyre spec dependent). This was done in order to cope with increasing lateral loads plus even higher DF levels than 2020 which is supposed to appear mid-season. In addition, Pirelli and F1 teams have the same desire just to lower the tyre pressure in the race, obviously for different reasons.
2.Secondly, the 2021 rear tyre has a new construction shape and flex more, which is both harder to simulate (with CFD models & wind tunnel) and to control the wake with the allowed floor strakes/vortex generators. This tyre wake induce an inconsistency in diffuser DF levels, something that Merc was always prone to get with their lower rake philosophy, instead of peak DF like Red Bull is hunting with high rake …
What does mean harder tyres? One could say lower grip but that is not the whole picture. Hard tyres mean also a higher operation window! I don`t have a 2021 tyre operation window (and maybe someone could help me with this) but with lower levels of DF for this season, it must require some changes to the rear suspension, something that successfully Red Bull did. It said that Merc regrets they didn`t simulate 2021 DF levels back in Portimao and Abu Dhabi last year when they had the opportunity to test 2021 tyres. They went to not disclose any aero developments in order to give no ideas to their rivals and now bits them big time …
What`s the proof? Just look at the race when the W12 car was on full tanks and medium tyres! It was on pair (if not faster) with RB16B, something that Horner admitted frankly after the race. And another proof is their poor qualy results. One could say that they were setting the car towards the race, hence for the medium and hard tyre. This led to overheating the soft tyres in qualy, down to too much DF levels required for medium and hard tyres to work in their optimum operation window. But the
the real reason is that their 2021 rear aero in conjunction with their last year rear suspension doesn`t correlate in real life with their simulations/CFD models! This doesn`t cope well with this 2021 (harder) tyres, which led to overheating the soft tyres in qualy, especially in the third sector and was something that we witness in the test before the race (anyone rings the bells with Lewis` spin in turn 14 on C4 soft tyre?).
Maybe I`m wrong with the rear suspension and they`ll bring a new front wing in order to cure the rear instability/lack of DF which brings new and much powerful vortex generators in order to seal the diffuser better, just to be in line with what James Alison said regarding where their tokens were spent. Unfortunately, this will require some time (track engineer Shovlin suggested that Imola and Portimao will have the same car) both to design, manufacture and crush tested … hope it rains, why not, in order to give them a breather
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