They definitely have their work cut out for them this weekend. I notice the Mercedes is very stiff, by comparison the RBR's front wing sits much closer to the ground as the car pitches and rolls. Bottas car had the front wing very high off the ground.
Maybe a little less roll stiffness at the front, and lowering slow rear heave rebound damping while keeping roll stiffness high could help from a balance perspective, but more performance will be found in getting the tires to work. There's a lot of braking and sliding, but not a lot of continuous high speed corners. Everything in sector 2 is a similar speed range and depends so much on pitching and rolling the car, that it's difficult for a stiff car like the Mercedes. Combined with the tire friendly nature of the chassis, it makes it difficult for Mercedes to pull out a strong qualifying lap.
Hamilton's pace is almost there, I think it's another race of damage limitation, and the way things are going he might be racing his old pal Alonso on his way to the podium. The Ferrari's can't sustain their strong qualifying pace, they need the softs and they'll have to do two stops minimum.
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