2021 Red Bull Racing F1 Team

[LaplacesDemon]

I'd take another PU as soon as possible, and run it harder. Given the position they are due to bad luck and incidents, they've nothing to lose, and everything to win. Epic win or Epic defeat, but don't play games and don't be conservative. They've the car to do it this year. Push hard NOW!

I don't agree.
It's neck in neck, why take risks?
They need to keep a cool head, figure out when and how to best take the engine penalties and minimize the chance of another DNF.

It's all still to play for.

You think so with the upgraded Merc and it's better understanding of the tires right now? Later it may be too late, a decision should be taken after Spa depending on the result imho

Yes. Mercedes appear to have introduced their last large update for this season, RB seem to have committed to throwing new bits at it relentlessly. If that is the case the second part of the season should start to swing their way performance wise.

What I feel they need to do is change their mentality of being an underdog and making high risk calls to steal a victory hear and there. This should reflect in both strategic calls and driver behaviour.

[Jolle]

Things will ebb and flow throughout the season, the Mercedes is still not faster than the Red Bull.

The long runs had Perez splitting the Mercedes, which means Verstappen would have had the edge in the race. It's back to being close, and Bottas's maneuver ensured that RBR will have a hard time putting on more performance on their car. I have a feeling Mercedes will also have to deal with an engine penalty, law of averages.

I don’t think the law of averages work in RedBull’s favour here. Mercedes have a very low DNF due to technical issues over the last seasons and during the whole hybrid period only had to take engine penalties twice (Hamilton in 2016 and Bottas once I think). Most drivers weren’t even on the grid last time Hamilton DNF’ed.

That’s the extra challenge RedBull is facing, not just beating Mercedes on speed but also build a gap to counter their reliability.

One could say, well… they tuned everything down for all these years but now RedBull is pushing them. Ferrari did as well for a couple of years, especially on engine power and still no penalties or DNF’s.

They have to engage full attack mode to get at least 30 points again, to get that buffer.

[JordanMugen]

I don’t think the law of averages work in RedBull’s favour here.

How so? If Red Bulls were crashed by Mercedes in two races, then it would be logical that Mercedes would be crashed by Red Bulls in two races. Thus the crash-related DNFs will balance out.

Mercedes team crash-related DNFs may even caused by collisions with others like McLaren or Ferrari etc.

Most drivers weren’t even on the grid last time Hamilton DNF’ed.

Therefore Hamilton will likely pick up multiple DNFs, surely?

If Verstappen has multiple DNFs, it is only logical Hamilton will also score multiple DNFs. 'That's motor racing' after all. The incidences and likelihood of crash-related non-finishes are extremely high.

[Jolle]

I don’t think the law of averages work in RedBull’s favour here.

How so? If Red Bulls were crashed by Mercedes in two races, then it would be logical that Mercedes would be crashed by Red Bulls in two races. Thus the crash-related DNFs will balance out.

"That's motor racing," after all. It is likely Mercedes team will have crash-related DNFs, maybe even caused by collisions with others like McLaren etc.

Most drivers weren’t even on the grid last time Hamilton DNF’ed.

Therefore Hamilton will likely pick up multiple DNFs, surely?

If Verstappen has multiple DNFs, it is only logical Hamilton will also score multiple DNFs. 'That's motor racing' after all.

The law of average here was for engine penalties. Mercedes had so few, that their average is 0.7 % per GP. As for DNF’s, the longer you don’t DNF, the average chance of a DNF gets lower, not higher because “your time is due”

[ispano6]

It is but a scratch

What?

[diffuser]

Isn't that was the same explanation given in 2018 also? I am sure it's not Pirelli's problem either that the downforce was cut by 10% this year.

I'm not sure where you're going with all that. You trying to say Pirelli are in it to Help Merc Win?

The 10% drop was to try and keep the same tires before whole new tires in 2022(which were really gonna be used in 2021) but because of covid got pushed back. The way 10% drop was applied was what got Ferrari to drop their pursuit of AMR in Copy gate. I have my suspicions that when Ferrari saw that they backed off, It acknowledging that the regulation change was , kind of, targeting AMR. Lower rake cars would have a harder time adjusting to that change. Inadvertently, Merc got caught up in that, being the only other low rake car. When you actually design a car you're more likely to know how to resolve such an issue. Which is what happened. Personally I believed that Merc deserved a penalty, AMR didn't act alone. Anyways you could make an argument that the reg change helped RBR close the gap.

This is not about, who the regulations helped. It was about why they landed up in that situation. Pirelli failed to deliver on the asks with regards to 2020 tyres. Teams flatly refused to use 2020 tyres and they had to use 2019 tyres in 2020. If they would have done a good job of building 2020 tyres and build 2021 tyres on top of that, teams wouldn't have required to cut downforce. Whether the downforce cut helped bring to field closer is a different matter altogether. Poor quality is synomynous with Pirelli. That's the point and to wash their a**, they fix the tyres in the middle of season, throwing one or more teams off balance. It's a strange "coincidence" that it always help Mercedes.

I don't know what Merc have done but they always seem to be very tough on tires. I can remember back before Hamilton joined and Schumacher drove for them it was the same. The tougher you make the tires the more they seem to be able to exploit them. It isn't a new trend. They struggle when it gets too hot. Give them a tire that can handle more heat then they'll perform better...end of story.

[Jolle]

It is but a scratch

What?

What! Just a flesh wound.

[TNTHead]

I don’t think the law of averages work in RedBull’s favour here.

How so? If Red Bulls were crashed by Mercedes in two races, then it would be logical that Mercedes would be crashed by Red Bulls in two races. Thus the crash-related DNFs will balance out.

Mercedes team crash-related DNFs may even caused by collisions with others like McLaren or Ferrari etc.

Most drivers weren’t even on the grid last time Hamilton DNF’ed.

Therefore Hamilton will likely pick up multiple DNFs, surely?

If Verstappen has multiple DNFs, it is only logical Hamilton will also score multiple DNFs. 'That's motor racing' after all. The incidences and likelihood of crash-related non-finishes are extremely high.

I don’t see the logical conclusion of this. I think there is an inverse relation with qualifying position and crash risk with a steep decline with the first spot. Look at it. If you start first you only have one or two cars who can dive bomb you. When you are third then it is at least five (two in front, three from behind). So having a car that is able to qualify up front greatly diminishes (first lap/start) crashes.
Just my 2 cents.

[ispano6]

It is but a scratch

What?

What! Just a flesh wound.

Oh, you're not talking about the missing barge boards or floor damage and all the points of downforce resulting from it. You're talking about flesh wounds of what exactly?

[ispano6]

I don’t think the law of averages work in RedBull’s favour here.

How so? If Red Bulls were crashed by Mercedes in two races, then it would be logical that Mercedes would be crashed by Red Bulls in two races. Thus the crash-related DNFs will balance out.

Mercedes team crash-related DNFs may even caused by collisions with others like McLaren or Ferrari etc.

Most drivers weren’t even on the grid last time Hamilton DNF’ed.

Therefore Hamilton will likely pick up multiple DNFs, surely?

If Verstappen has multiple DNFs, it is only logical Hamilton will also score multiple DNFs. 'That's motor racing' after all. The incidences and likelihood of crash-related non-finishes are extremely high.

I don’t see the logical conclusion of this. I think there is an inverse relation with qualifying position and crash risk with a steep decline with the first spot. Look at it. If you start first you only have one or two cars who can dive bomb you. When you are third then it is at least five (two in front, three from behind). So having a car that is able to qualify up front greatly diminishes (first lap/start) crashes.
Just my 2 cents.

Yet in Silverstone Max did start on pole. The first lap crashes result from poor judgment of risk vs reward made in desperation. We saw this in Hungary as well. If we are to believe that RedBull does have the better car, then we can assume that the driver(s) who have the inferior car is the one taking the risk or a desperation move.

[Jolle]

What?

What! Just a flesh wound.

Oh, you're not talking about the missing barge boards or floor damage and all the points of downforce resulting from it. You're talking about flesh wounds of what exactly?

[JordanMugen]

As for DNF’s, the longer you don’t DNF, the average chance of a DNF gets lower, not higher because “your time is due”

I see, so statistically speaking Hamilton retirements are unlikely, due to higher skill?

Yet in Silverstone Max did start on pole. The first lap crashes result from poor judgment of risk vs reward made in desperation.

I see. How does that explain Hamilton escaping a DNF both times he crashed into Albon, or escaping a DNF when he crashed at Imola?

Is it Hamilton's higher skill level that allows Hamilton to avoid DNFs, and makes Hamilton DNFs less likely than Verstappen DNFs? So Verstappen cannot reasonably expect Hamilton to score any DNFs at all let alone the same number as Verstappen, as it is Verstappen who is statistically more DNF-prone compared to Hamilton?

then we can assume that the driver(s) who have the inferior car is the one taking the risk or a desperation move.

Yet such moves, curiously, did not result in a Hamilton DNF.

Oh, you're not talking about the missing barge boards or floor damage and all the points of downforce resulting from it. You're talking about flesh wounds of what exactly?

It is a Monty Python related meme, or cultural reference if you prefer. Monty Python is a popular English sketch comedy group, in this case making fun of the reserved nature of the English.

[Kingshark]

As for DNF’s, the longer you don’t DNF, the average chance of a DNF gets lower, not higher because “your time is due”

Please explain using a mathematical model.

[Kingshark]

Anyway, is it true that Verstappen’s new spec3 engine was damaged with the turn 1 incident?

That could potentially be 2 grid penalties for the second half of the season instead of just one….

[ispano6]

Anyway, is it true that Verstappen’s new spec3 engine was damaged with the turn 1 incident?

That could potentially be 2 grid penalties for the second half of the season instead of just one….

Maybe they should take 10 engines in one weekend then! And yes I know you can't stock pile engines, but this is getting ridiculous seeing that it was no fault of their own. I expect F1 to change the rules for these situations. Of course, there are other ways to level the playing field.

https://us.motorsport.com/f1/news/guilt ... i/6640998/