Will Electric Vehicles Be Viable? When?

[El Scorchio]

I also watched this documentary and it was very interesting. I was surprised when they concluded it was more expensive than ICE on long journeys. I saw a friend at the weekend who has recently bought a VW ID.3 and he says he absolutely loves it and would never go back to ICE. He doesn't do that many long journeys but said he recently drove from Oxford to Bangor (about 450 mile round trip) and that it only cost him about £15!

Did he say how long it took him though? I guess if Guy Martin had used the slowest charge points he would have got there for a lot less than £204, but spent hours and hours waiting for the car to charge! It's quite interesting, the charge time vs cost issue. Someone will always pay a premium for speed, and I wonder if the prices can be jacked up where they know there aren't many charge points? I guess at some point it'll become super fast and super cheap with an abundance of charge points, but not for a couple of years. The infrastructure development really needs to be rapid.

Yeah he took his time and also managed to charge over night so it isn't really comparable with what Guy was doing.

To be honest I'm surprised they had Guy Martin do that show because he's always been pretty old school and a sort of "the more oil and dirt the better" kind of person. I think he is right though that EVs are good for a minority currently and will probably never be right for some others but hopefully in a couple of years the infrastructure and costs will be at a level that make them viable for most people

TBH I reckon partly the point of the programme was to get people thinking about buying electric cars! Sliiiiight bit of 'propaganda' maybe if you're inclined to use that word- bit of Tesla namedropping and probably if 'the ultimate petrolhead' can be a convert, then we all can.

They covered the main concerns people would have- 'is it fast enough?', 'is it too expensive?', 'How easily can i charge it or drive long distances?', 'How safe are the batteries?' But intertwined with the world record attempt/build/science experiments and how it works aspect. (I also quite enjoyed the history aspect of saying the tech has been around for donkey's years, but the abundance of cheap oil and ease of using it led to the ICE being the technology of choice for the motoring industry.)

Despite it being a tiny bit of an under the radar sales pitch (in my opinion), I think they did do a very balanced and honest job of it, pointing out both the cons of going electric as well as the pros as well as saying the ICE will probably always be around in some form. Seems like if you won't ever deplete the battery during a journey (ie don't ever drive far) then it's well worth considering it, but if you do, then maybe not yet.

[DChemTech]

There are so many advantages hooking up a large amount of EV’s to the grid, a big problem is to keep the power stable (a bigger problem is then pure capacity in most cases). If your EV is hooked up to your personal grid, virtual or physical, you can choose when to buy your power (or even sell it). (Making money when you park your car )

You can, although purely from a cost-perspective the idea of using electric cars as buffer storage (or, using Li-ion home batteries) has never made a whole lot of sense to me. With the costs of a Tesla Powerwall and some very, very generous assumptions we got to a cost of ca. $0.2/kWh for storage, which is more or less equal to grid electricity (generation, distribution, profit and taxes).

I do like the idea of a battery store for PV-generated electricity. It's more about reducing the need for dino-sourced electricity than economics, but it is a "first world problem" type position really. I like the idea of generating electricity during the day and then using that to run the house during the dark hours. Obviously, that works better in summer months, especially in countries that are well north/south of the equator, but it would certainly be possible to be effectively grid neutral for quite a good percentage of the year. But admittedly it's not a solution for people on low wages etc., because of the cost of the kit (PV, controllers, switches, battery system).

Having said that, in countries where there is a lot of solar energy potential but not the grid infrastructure (thinking many African countries, for example), PV linked to battery storage would certainly allow for a modern lifestyle
(whatever that means) without the need to develop a generating and grid infrastructure at great cost.

Oh yeah don't get me wrong - we need to get off the dinojuice as quickly as we can, no doubt, and storage capacity is a requirement. Probably the largest hurdle at the moment, with the massive leaps that have been made in driving the costs of power generation down

It's just that in places where a power grid is already available, using li-ion batteries for storage seems very expensive, and the battery lifetime (at least, its functional lifetime in the EV) may deteriorate. I would expect there to be better solutions, as batteries for stationary applications have different requirements (especially those for pure backup can probably have slow charging rates and low energy density, as long as they are just very cheap. e.g. salt-water batteries).

Of course the economics will change considerably in regions where there's no grid available, although also there, for stationary applications low-density, low-cost options may be preferred over li-ion.

Of course, CO2 pricing/true cost accounting of externalities will also change the economic picture.

[Andres125sx]

air & ground source heat pumps compete with EVs increasing demand on (grossly insufficient) supply of 'good' electricity
(ok UK-built turbines will soon be 200+m dia on UK-built masts)

ie we are and will be powering heat pumps and EVs with 'bad' (fossil-fuel) electricity
and 2022 legislation will do this (but make the legislators feel good)

we aren't any time soon rebuilding our housing stock to reduce heat demand
(and there's many billions in legal hangover/undetermined liability on existing building insulation/construction issues)

though (in temperate countries) heating energy consumption is far greater than vehicle energy consumption
so we will still need a 1000% or 2000% increase in 'good' electricity ?

where's that viability ?

About the bolded part, we actually are. I´m Facility Manager of a 550 houses comunity built in the 70s, and I have a project on my table exactly for this, improving building insulation to reduce heat demand. The project will reduce heat demand to 30% wich is an impressive reduction. It is done with generous external insulation to stop any thermal bridges what is crucial specially for old buildings, and new windows with three layers of glass and two (cameras, cavities, chambers?... not sure what´s the correct term in english). The project also includes PV panels as it´s financed for 15 years and they´re paid off sooner, so ironically the project is more affordable with PV panels than without.

The whole project is subsidized both by spanish government and Europe, up to a 60% It´s a 12 millions project so they providing more than 7 millions, and the rest is financed for 15 years so if you also take into account the reduction in heating and cooling costs, the project is almost paid for itself, and the owners will have to pay a ridiculous monthly fee of 2€ It is a closed contract so they can´t change anything later

So even when I also enjoy bashing politicians and governments , in this case they´re actually doing it right.

Also insulation legislation has been drastically modified for new buildings. 20 years ago houses did need more than 300kW/m2 year. 10 years ago it was reduced to a half, and 2 years ago it was further reduced to 45kW/m2 year, wich is close to passivehouse standards wich is 15 (last two numbers are accurate, the rest are from memory so they may vary, but you get the idea). Ok still triple than PH standards, but when some years ago it was more than 20x, now 3x looks close to me


Also ventilation has been legislated. Now a blowerdoor test is required to ensure some tightness. Still far from PH standards in this field (0.6 air renovations/hour vs 6), but at least now it´s regulated. That means mechanical ventilation is now a must at least for PHs or housed built exceeding current legislation, wich is done with mechanical ventilation with some sort of heat exchanger wich uses heat from dirty air going out to heat up the incoming fresh air to minimize heat looses.

All this is to say thermal insulation for buildings has been improved in past decade drastically, as you said heating emissions are much much bigger than vehicle emissions, so this was a must, but we´re actually moving in the right direction

[Andres125sx]

Heat pumps save energy. They might appear to spend it, but they use far less energy than a convencional heater making the same function. and in most cases, the heating would been done one way or another.

heat pumps don't really save if run on fossil-fuel electricity (compared to the normal - direct fossil-fuel heating)
but that is what our upcoming legislation will encourage

ground source heat pumps won't do (unless heat losses are slashed) - because we don't have enough land per house
air source heat pumps won't do (unless heat losses are slashed) - because of the (mutual) neighbour-proximity effect

these are said ....

What is that neighbour proximity effect?

One of the neighbours in my job is installing aerothermal energy with underfloor heating/cooling. The compressor is installed in the roof or a balcony (it´s a flat) so I´d say there´s no problem at all

[Just_a_fan]

It's just that in places where a power grid is already available, using li-ion batteries for storage seems very expensive, and the battery lifetime (at least, its functional lifetime in the EV) may deteriorate. I would expect there to be better solutions, as batteries for stationary applications have different requirements (especially those for pure backup can probably have slow charging rates and low energy density, as long as they are just very cheap. e.g. salt-water batteries).

I haven't looked in to it but I don't see why one can't just use old fashioned lead/acid batteries. They're cheap, easy to use. But they are bulky and, unless specifically designed, don't like deep discharge which Li-ion is quite happy with. I'm not aware of lead/acid being a fire risk so long as the hydrogen produced isn't allowed to collect anywhere. A stack of deep cycle lead/acid batteries with a decent controller would be a reasonable store for many domestic uses.

[Big Tea]

Apart from any green reason, electric cars are just plain nicer to drive.
However, I see my next car being a hybrid, and an all electric a way off yet for practical reasons

[Andres125sx]

It's just that in places where a power grid is already available, using li-ion batteries for storage seems very expensive, and the battery lifetime (at least, its functional lifetime in the EV) may deteriorate. I would expect there to be better solutions, as batteries for stationary applications have different requirements (especially those for pure backup can probably have slow charging rates and low energy density, as long as they are just very cheap. e.g. salt-water batteries).

I haven't looked in to it but I don't see why one can't just use old fashioned lead/acid batteries. They're cheap, easy to use. But they are bulky and, unless specifically designed, don't like deep discharge which Li-ion is quite happy with. I'm not aware of lead/acid being a fire risk so long as the hydrogen produced isn't allowed to collect anywhere. A stack of deep cycle lead/acid batteries with a decent controller would be a reasonable store for many domestic uses.

Actually li-ion does not like deep discharging at all. They also don´t like full charge for long periods. Those are the reasons I don´t like Lithium for home storage, apart from the price

[maxxer]

Actually Electric vehicles have been around for years they are called trains trams metros, but still its not enough to get all the cars and trucks off the road Near my place is the main post plust postnl and building a DPD package distribution center , most of them drive around in normal white vans, maybe the mailman has an electric scooter or bicycle.
Dont see what is the purpose of me buying an electric vehicle when the industries dont invest in electric vans trucks and more. DHL UPS still fly the oldest planes around the world for package delivery

[DChemTech]

Actually Electric vehicles have been around for years they are called trains trams metros, but still its not enough to get all the cars and trucks off the road Near my place is the main post plust postnl and building a DPD package distribution center , most of them drive around in normal white vans, maybe the mailman has an electric scooter or bicycle.
Dont see what is the purpose of me buying an electric vehicle when the industries dont invest in electric vans trucks and more. DHL UPS still fly the oldest planes around the world for package delivery

Well, quite some are investing in electric delivery (picnic has a full electric fleet, coolblue uses many electric vehicles, etc.). But overall, electric vehicles are not the most suitable for cargo hauling yet, especially long distance vans & large quantities (it does make sense for local distribution of smaller volumes).

But cargo hauling and personal transport are quite different objectives. Especially in the Netherlands personal transport is rarely over very long distances, and for those commuting frequently electric vehicles are a fine alternative.

Of course, trains and busses won't get cars of the road - they don't offer the same level of flexibility, so for some regions cars just have a big advantage. But that has nothing to do with them being electric vehicles.

[maxxer]

Actually Electric vehicles have been around for years they are called trains trams metros, but still its not enough to get all the cars and trucks off the road Near my place is the main post plust postnl and building a DPD package distribution center , most of them drive around in normal white vans, maybe the mailman has an electric scooter or bicycle.
Dont see what is the purpose of me buying an electric vehicle when the industries dont invest in electric vans trucks and more. DHL UPS still fly the oldest planes around the world for package delivery

Well, quite some are investing in electric delivery (picnic has a full electric fleet, coolblue uses many electric vehicles, etc.). But overall, electric vehicles are not the most suitable for cargo hauling yet, especially long distance vans & large quantities (it does make sense for local distribution of smaller volumes).

But cargo hauling and personal transport are quite different objectives. Especially in the Netherlands personal transport is rarely over very long distances, and for those commuting frequently electric vehicles are a fine alternative.

Of course, trains and busses won't get cars of the road - they don't offer the same level of flexibility, so for some regions cars just have a big advantage. But that has nothing to do with them being electric vehicles.

So far i have managed and i am looking into getting an eBike to get to city and all. If there would be more car sharing in my city it would even reduce the need further for me to own a car. Long haul cargo can also be done with trains instead of trucking all through europe. even f1 could use trains to move the motorhomes and all if they really want to.

[djos]

It's just that in places where a power grid is already available, using li-ion batteries for storage seems very expensive, and the battery lifetime (at least, its functional lifetime in the EV) may deteriorate. I would expect there to be better solutions, as batteries for stationary applications have different requirements (especially those for pure backup can probably have slow charging rates and low energy density, as long as they are just very cheap. e.g. salt-water batteries).

I haven't looked in to it but I don't see why one can't just use old fashioned lead/acid batteries. They're cheap, easy to use. But they are bulky and, unless specifically designed, don't like deep discharge which Li-ion is quite happy with. I'm not aware of lead/acid being a fire risk so long as the hydrogen produced isn't allowed to collect anywhere. A stack of deep cycle lead/acid batteries with a decent controller would be a reasonable store for many domestic uses.

I used to manage a Tier 3 Spec Data Centre so I can assure you that SLA batteries are being phased out for Li-On cells for a very good reason.

Even the high-quality deep-cycle units used in DC's which are connected to highly sophisticated, very expensive UPS's have a cell failure rate way above Li-On. The DC I managed was a smaller one but we still had 3x 1.1MW CAT powered Diesel generators (32-litre twin-turbo units to be precise), 6x 450kW Eaton UPS's with BMS's that could manage the battery arrays to the individual cell level .... and yet we had (iirc) at least one of those 100wH SLA battery cells fail every month. This started after only 6 months despite the battery room being fully environmentally controlled via its own AC.

Just for fun, here are some DC build photos from 2009 (I'd forgotten how low res cameras were back then) - you can see some of the battery racks before the battery room was built around it and some of the massive generators sitting next to their 600 litre "day" tanks.

https://imgur.com/gallery/XguuQyG

Fact is Lead Acid batteries suck and after 2 years we were already looking at LifePo4 Cells as a replacement.

[maxxer]

Actually Electric vehicles have been around for years they are called trains trams metros, but still its not enough to get all the cars and trucks off the road Near my place is the main post plust postnl and building a DPD package distribution center , most of them drive around in normal white vans, maybe the mailman has an electric scooter or bicycle.
Dont see what is the purpose of me buying an electric vehicle when the industries dont invest in electric vans trucks and more. DHL UPS still fly the oldest planes around the world for package delivery

Well, quite some are investing in electric delivery (picnic has a full electric fleet, coolblue uses many electric vehicles, etc.). But overall, electric vehicles are not the most suitable for cargo hauling yet, especially long distance vans & large quantities (it does make sense for local distribution of smaller volumes).

But cargo hauling and personal transport are quite different objectives. Especially in the Netherlands personal transport is rarely over very long distances, and for those commuting frequently electric vehicles are a fine alternative.

Of course, trains and busses won't get cars of the road - they don't offer the same level of flexibility, so for some regions cars just have a big advantage. But that has nothing to do with them being electric vehicles.

So far i have managed and i am looking into getting an eBike to get to city and all. If there would be more car sharing in my city it would even reduce the need further for me to own a car. Long haul cargo can also be done with trains instead of trucking all through europe. even f1 could use trains to move the motorhomes and all if they really want to.

https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/f1-co ... 4/4984184/

actually F1 is looking into it with the gin palaces

[Andres125sx]

Dont see what is the purpose of me buying an electric vehicle when the industries dont invest in electric vans trucks and more.

Your requirements are similar to a delivery company whose vehicles drive around several hours a day, daily?

Not saying you should be buying one, I'm not because of the price, but that's a poor example sincerely

[maxxer]

Dont see what is the purpose of me buying an electric vehicle when the industries dont invest in electric vans trucks and more.

Your requirements are similar to a delivery company whose vehicles drive around several hours a day, daily?

Not saying you should be buying one, I'm not because of the price, but that's a poor example sincerely

To be honest as freelancer i used to drive all day around. Just now with Corona not so you do not know my requirements.
Same goes for the whole slow charging if i have been travelling to clients , i cant go to gym as the car is slow charging

[Zynerji]

Well, quite some are investing in electric delivery (picnic has a full electric fleet, coolblue uses many electric vehicles, etc.). But overall, electric vehicles are not the most suitable for cargo hauling yet, especially long distance vans & large quantities (it does make sense for local distribution of smaller volumes).

But cargo hauling and personal transport are quite different objectives. Especially in the Netherlands personal transport is rarely over very long distances, and for those commuting frequently electric vehicles are a fine alternative.

Of course, trains and busses won't get cars of the road - they don't offer the same level of flexibility, so for some regions cars just have a big advantage. But that has nothing to do with them being electric vehicles.

So far i have managed and i am looking into getting an eBike to get to city and all. If there would be more car sharing in my city it would even reduce the need further for me to own a car. Long haul cargo can also be done with trains instead of trucking all through europe. even f1 could use trains to move the motorhomes and all if they really want to.

https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/f1-co ... 4/4984184/

actually F1 is looking into it with the gin palaces

Dumbest. Idea. Ever.

Why would you get rid of THE off-track attraction of the F1 circus?

Woke F1™ is becoming an exercise in self-harm, and its ridiculous!