Silly season 2021-2022-2023

[rscsr]

https://i.imgur.com/0EPmwVL.png

After running through the data, here are the qualifying battles between drivers in different teams, as the best benchmark is a driver's teammate. I often hear that Stroll is bad, and Vettel has had a resurgence, but their pace in Qualifying is very close. Though Vettel wins the overall head-to-head battles in both qualifying and the race.

In contrast, Latifi, Mazepin, Ricciardo, and Perez are markedly worse than their teammate in qualifying.

when you take an average over the whole seaso, you shouldn't see a resurgance. They average out. You would see a resurgance if you would compare the average of the last 5 races to the first races or all races.

[politburo]

https://i.imgur.com/0EPmwVL.png

After running through the data, here are the qualifying battles between drivers in different teams, as the best benchmark is a driver's teammate. I often hear that Stroll is bad, and Vettel has had a resurgence, but their pace in Qualifying is very close. Though Vettel wins the overall head-to-head battles in both qualifying and the race.

In contrast, Latifi, Mazepin, Ricciardo, and Perez are markedly worse than their teammate in qualifying.

when you take an average over the whole seaso, you shouldn't see a resurgance. They average out. You would see a resurgance if you would compare the average of the last 5 races to the first races or all races.

No as in a career resurgence, after his bad year with Ferrari last year. If anything, he and Stroll are quite comparable...

[politburo]

https://i.imgur.com/0EPmwVL.png

After running through the data, here are the qualifying battles between drivers in different teams, as the best benchmark is a driver's teammate. I often hear that Stroll is bad, and Vettel has had a resurgence, but their pace in Qualifying is very close. Though Vettel wins the overall head-to-head battles in both qualifying and the race.

In contrast, Latifi, Mazepin, Ricciardo, and Perez are markedly worse than their teammate in qualifying.

when you take an average over the whole seaso, you shouldn't see a resurgance. They average out. You would see a resurgance if you would compare the average of the last 5 races to the first races or all races.

But even 11 races is a good sample size, especially for drivers like Perez. Perez is just a fairly good midfield driver, he makes for a decent 2nd driver given he has good race pace despite his subpar qualifying. However, I really doubt if Albon would have done worse than him in that car, they are both comparably slower than Verstappen in qualifying and finish nowhere near him in the races as well. But the car is better so Perez can start behind Ferrari at times and finish ahead of them and finish higher.

[JordanMugen]

But even 11 races is a good sample size, especially for drivers like Perez. Perez is just a fairly good midfield driver

I note Sainz's deal only runs through 2022. Now that it is clear that Sainz is a top level talent, able to largely match top-level Leclerc and top-level Norris, should Red Bull pounce and finally put Sainz in the Red Bull racer for 2023 onwards?

[Big Tea]

But even 11 races is a good sample size, especially for drivers like Perez. Perez is just a fairly good midfield driver

I note Sainz's deal only runs through 2022. Now that it is clear that Sainz is a top level talent, able to largely match top-level Leclerc and top-level Norris, should Red Bull pounce and finally put Sainz in the Red Bull racer for 2023 onwards?

Given a choice of stay at Ferrari or move to RBR, do you think he would move?
He said it was his dream to be at Ferrari (yes, they all say it, but I think he means it) where even if not in the top three at the moment it is still competitive. There are big changed coming up, and Ferrari could easily become top 3 again.

There is also a poor record of 'other' drivers at RBR, and even though it is becoming obvious it is not a driver problem, it would still mean his stock would drop at a time when there seem to be a group of young drivers coming on the market at (probably) a lower rate.

I think that if it was me, I would stay at Ferrari at least for another 3 years if I could get the contract.

[Just_a_fan]

But even 11 races is a good sample size, especially for drivers like Perez. Perez is just a fairly good midfield driver

I note Sainz's deal only runs through 2022. Now that it is clear that Sainz is a top level talent, able to largely match top-level Leclerc and top-level Norris, should Red Bull pounce and finally put Sainz in the Red Bull racer for 2023 onwards?

Wouldn't that depend on where Max was? If Max stays at Red Bull, why would Sainz want to go there and why would Red Bull want him? Red Bull are focussed on Max and so long as he delivers, they won't want to rock the boat with him. And going to a team that is totally focussed on the other driver is not a great career move for anyone.

[taperoo2k]

I have said this several times. Well almost said I said Russell and Bottas at AM

Stroll to Merc, Russell and Bottas at AM, could be. But then Vettel is unemployed. What he showed recently is that his racecraft is still there. If Merc would go for the best possible line-up I still would go for HAM/RUS at Merc, also because you can benchmark RUS against HAM (and let him learn from him as well). But then Merc still would have great plans with RUS, which would make sense because it is likely that HAM quits at the end of 2023.

Ham and RUS look like the best combo at Merc, but on the other hand If I ran the team I would be reluctant to split a winning team that has worked for several years in a few different scenarios. Bottas is never a Ham replacement, but he does not take many points off him and not usually scrapping over the same bit of track and letting the opposition either get away or catch up. Which do you find the most useful in your tool box? 2 hammers or a hammer and a mallet?

I would also be loath to let the opposition have either Bottas or Russell.

You'll want two racing drivers with the ability to beat Verstappen on a consistent basis. Mercedes have that in Lewis, but not Bottas (pains me to say that). So If I were Mercedes ? I'd pull the trigger on Russell joining the team sooner rather than later. Especially as Lewis has only signed a short term deal, at the end of which he'll either leave F1 (doubt he'll retire from Motorsport if say he wants a crack at Leman etc) or he can't resist the challenge that is Ferrari.

Russell has the ability to win a world championship, but he needs time in a top team to gain the experience he'll need to compete with Verstappen who'll be battle hardened by this year's title fight. I see no better driver for Russell to learn from than Lewis.

[adrianjordan]

Stroll to Merc, Russell and Bottas at AM, could be. But then Vettel is unemployed. What he showed recently is that his racecraft is still there. If Merc would go for the best possible line-up I still would go for HAM/RUS at Merc, also because you can benchmark RUS against HAM (and let him learn from him as well). But then Merc still would have great plans with RUS, which would make sense because it is likely that HAM quits at the end of 2023.

Ham and RUS look like the best combo at Merc, but on the other hand If I ran the team I would be reluctant to split a winning team that has worked for several years in a few different scenarios. Bottas is never a Ham replacement, but he does not take many points off him and not usually scrapping over the same bit of track and letting the opposition either get away or catch up. Which do you find the most useful in your tool box? 2 hammers or a hammer and a mallet?

I would also be loath to let the opposition have either Bottas or Russell.

You'll want two racing drivers with the ability to beat Verstappen on a consistent basis. Mercedes have that in Lewis, but not Bottas (pains me to say that). So If I were Mercedes ? I'd pull the trigger on Russell joining the team sooner rather than later. Especially as Lewis has only signed a short term deal, at the end of which he'll either leave F1 (doubt he'll retire from Motorsport if say he wants a crack at Leman etc) or he can't resist the challenge that is Ferrari.

Russell has the ability to win a world championship, but he needs time in a top team to gain the experience he'll need to compete with Verstappen who'll be battle hardened by this year's title fight. I see no better driver for Russell to learn from than Lewis.

Lewis won't go to Ferrari. He's been with Mercedes since before he started in F1. He will stay with Mercedes until he retires and then I agree with those saying he'll stay involved in the team.

He can do Le Mans with Merc in the Hypercar class.

[Manoah2u]

The single and only chance I can see Lewis go to Ferrari if for some reason 2022 turns out to have a fantastic WDC dominant car and Mercedes and Aston Martin miss the mark bigtime.
He then MIGHT get a chance in 2023 to replace a Ferrari driver - IF said ferrari driver drops the ball as hard as Bottas @ Merc or F.E. Albon @ RBR.
For that to happen though both Ferrari and Lewis both have to even have interest in such a deal, and quite frankly,
i doubt either camp really is interested, especially as long as Binotto is there.

Let's be honest here, Hamilton is facing his natural F1 racing career decline, and as such his F1 retirement. If he ever was motivated to drive for Ferrari to grab a title, that time certainly has passed a few seasons ago. Both Lewis and Ferrari know this, and as others mentioned more than once, Hamilton has been a Mercedes 'player' all his racing career.
If 2022 turns out bad in regards to WDC possibilities, he'll reconcider his future in F1, not his future at which or what F1 team.

He already showed for this by wanting more involvement in the team, so he'll most likely simply end his F1 career as a 8-time WDC and leave it be - and more likely take on an advisory role in the Mercedes team - to meanwhile take on similar adventures as Alonso did - LeMans, Indy500, perhaps Dakar, and go for some fun MotoGP adventures.

I could see him go for that role for about 2 or 3 seasons whilst becoming a champion for causes like BLM, perhaps support the LBGT stuff in Motorsports and racing,
to then find a job either @ the FIA or alongside Ross Brawn in Formula 1 itself - or, perhaps take on a Niki Lauda-like role @ Mercedes, Mclaren, Aston Martin or Williams,
and become a manager for 'black' talent and fund and motivate a return for F1 to South Africa.

So in all reality, no, i don't see Lewis going to Ferrari at all.

Hamilton certainly will grab the 2021 F1 title.

After that, it's either Mercedes still high in the game with a good chance of title NR9,
and then Lewis probably will try a shot for title 10. But at any point, he has done enough and could decide to end his F1 career 'overnight'.

Its because of this it's extra important for Mercedes to have Russell aboard and give him a shot alongside Hamilton.
When Hamilton then retires - perhaps 2023 or 2024, there's a variety of drivers to put in the 2nd seat.
Vettel, Norris, Ricciardo, Verstappen, Sainz.

Meanwhile Mercedes seems to be 'rethinking' their motorsport participations.
Wolff seems to hint that his involvement is going to be of lesser sort too in the Merc' F1 team.

It's likely Mercedes will revert back into an engine supplier, and go for the hypercar challenges instead.

Either way, by 2025 and 2026 the entire F1 landscape will be totally different to what it is now.

What could happen though somewhere in the future, if F1 decides to go crazy and give back a shot at V10 and V12
engines with fully synthetic fuels - then I think there might be a shot where Hamilton pulls a Lauda, Schumacher and Alonso:
return to F1 to participate with the type of engine he never got to drive. I could see him do that with Mclaren or Aston Martin tbh,

Here's something to ponder about:

Hamilton grabs his 8th tile, and his 9th, then retires from F1.
Verstappen will never grab a WDC title.
Russell will take his 1st after Lewis' retirement.
Max will switch teams but still won't manage a WDC.
Leclerc won't grab a title either.
Norris might though.
Alonso comes close too.

Few years on, F1 being fully switched to Synth fuels and ground effect cars, high revving V8, V10 or V12 will return.
Mclaren and Mercedes invest in a mighty V10 or V12 engine, do a secret test with Hamilton, and decide to wheel him back into F1.
Hamilton is WDC immediately with a super dominant high revving V10/V12 Mclaren and grabs his 10th title.
2nd year on he is still super competitive but competition grows a lot and doesn't go on for a 3rd season and ends his F1 career permanently.

[Big Tea]

The single and only chance I can see Lewis go to Ferrari if for some reason 2022 turns out to have a fantastic WDC dominant car and Mercedes and Aston Martin miss the mark bigtime.
He then MIGHT get a chance in 2023 to replace a Ferrari driver - IF said ferrari driver drops the ball as hard as Bottas @ Merc or F.E. Albon @ RBR.
For that to happen though both Ferrari and Lewis both have to even have interest in such a deal, and quite frankly,
i doubt either camp really is interested, especially as long as Binotto is there.

Let's be honest here, Hamilton is facing his natural F1 racing career decline, and as such his F1 retirement. If he ever was motivated to drive for Ferrari to grab a title, that time certainly has passed a few seasons ago. Both Lewis and Ferrari know this, and as others mentioned more than once, Hamilton has been a Mercedes 'player' all his racing career.
If 2022 turns out bad in regards to WDC possibilities, he'll reconcider his future in F1, not his future at which or what F1 team.

He already showed for this by wanting more involvement in the team, so he'll most likely simply end his F1 career as a 8-time WDC and leave it be - and more likely take on an advisory role in the Mercedes team - to meanwhile take on similar adventures as Alonso did - LeMans, Indy500, perhaps Dakar, and go for some fun MotoGP adventures.

I could see him go for that role for about 2 or 3 seasons whilst becoming a champion for causes like BLM, perhaps support the LBGT stuff in Motorsports and racing,
to then find a job either @ the FIA or alongside Ross Brawn in Formula 1 itself - or, perhaps take on a Niki Lauda-like role @ Mercedes, Mclaren, Aston Martin or Williams,
and become a manager for 'black' talent and fund and motivate a return for F1 to South Africa.

So in all reality, no, i don't see Lewis going to Ferrari at all.

Hamilton certainly will grab the 2021 F1 title.

After that, it's either Mercedes still high in the game with a good chance of title NR9,
and then Lewis probably will try a shot for title 10. But at any point, he has done enough and could decide to end his F1 career 'overnight'.

Its because of this it's extra important for Mercedes to have Russell aboard and give him a shot alongside Hamilton.
When Hamilton then retires - perhaps 2023 or 2024, there's a variety of drivers to put in the 2nd seat.
Vettel, Norris, Ricciardo, Verstappen, Sainz.

Meanwhile Mercedes seems to be 'rethinking' their motorsport participations.
Wolff seems to hint that his involvement is going to be of lesser sort too in the Merc' F1 team.

It's likely Mercedes will revert back into an engine supplier, and go for the hypercar challenges instead.

Either way, by 2025 and 2026 the entire F1 landscape will be totally different to what it is now.

What could happen though somewhere in the future, if F1 decides to go crazy and give back a shot at V10 and V12
engines with fully synthetic fuels - then I think there might be a shot where Hamilton pulls a Lauda, Schumacher and Alonso:
return to F1 to participate with the type of engine he never got to drive. I could see him do that with Mclaren or Aston Martin tbh,

Here's something to ponder about:

Hamilton grabs his 8th tile, and his 9th, then retires from F1.
Verstappen will never grab a WDC title.
Russell will take his 1st after Lewis' retirement.
Max will switch teams but still won't manage a WDC.
Leclerc won't grab a title either.
Norris might though.
Alonso comes close too.

Few years on, F1 being fully switched to Synth fuels and ground effect cars, high revving V8, V10 or V12 will return.
Mclaren and Mercedes invest in a mighty V10 or V12 engine, do a secret test with Hamilton, and decide to wheel him back into F1.
Hamilton is WDC immediately with a super dominant high revving V10/V12 Mclaren and grabs his 10th title.
2nd year on he is still super competitive but competition grows a lot and doesn't go on for a 3rd season and ends his F1 career permanently.

If the Ferrari did end up that dominant, why would Ferrari want Hamilton?
They have their own drivers and would be in a position to make it plain that it was 'all our own work'.
Assuming it was dominant enough and both divers wanted to stay

[Jolle]

The single and only chance I can see Lewis go to Ferrari if for some reason 2022 turns out to have a fantastic WDC dominant car and Mercedes and Aston Martin miss the mark bigtime.
He then MIGHT get a chance in 2023 to replace a Ferrari driver - IF said ferrari driver drops the ball as hard as Bottas @ Merc or F.E. Albon @ RBR.
For that to happen though both Ferrari and Lewis both have to even have interest in such a deal, and quite frankly,
i doubt either camp really is interested, especially as long as Binotto is there.

Let's be honest here, Hamilton is facing his natural F1 racing career decline, and as such his F1 retirement. If he ever was motivated to drive for Ferrari to grab a title, that time certainly has passed a few seasons ago. Both Lewis and Ferrari know this, and as others mentioned more than once, Hamilton has been a Mercedes 'player' all his racing career.
If 2022 turns out bad in regards to WDC possibilities, he'll reconcider his future in F1, not his future at which or what F1 team.

He already showed for this by wanting more involvement in the team, so he'll most likely simply end his F1 career as a 8-time WDC and leave it be - and more likely take on an advisory role in the Mercedes team - to meanwhile take on similar adventures as Alonso did - LeMans, Indy500, perhaps Dakar, and go for some fun MotoGP adventures.

I could see him go for that role for about 2 or 3 seasons whilst becoming a champion for causes like BLM, perhaps support the LBGT stuff in Motorsports and racing,
to then find a job either @ the FIA or alongside Ross Brawn in Formula 1 itself - or, perhaps take on a Niki Lauda-like role @ Mercedes, Mclaren, Aston Martin or Williams,
and become a manager for 'black' talent and fund and motivate a return for F1 to South Africa.

So in all reality, no, i don't see Lewis going to Ferrari at all.

Hamilton certainly will grab the 2021 F1 title.

After that, it's either Mercedes still high in the game with a good chance of title NR9,
and then Lewis probably will try a shot for title 10. But at any point, he has done enough and could decide to end his F1 career 'overnight'.

Its because of this it's extra important for Mercedes to have Russell aboard and give him a shot alongside Hamilton.
When Hamilton then retires - perhaps 2023 or 2024, there's a variety of drivers to put in the 2nd seat.
Vettel, Norris, Ricciardo, Verstappen, Sainz.

Meanwhile Mercedes seems to be 'rethinking' their motorsport participations.
Wolff seems to hint that his involvement is going to be of lesser sort too in the Merc' F1 team.

It's likely Mercedes will revert back into an engine supplier, and go for the hypercar challenges instead.

Either way, by 2025 and 2026 the entire F1 landscape will be totally different to what it is now.

What could happen though somewhere in the future, if F1 decides to go crazy and give back a shot at V10 and V12
engines with fully synthetic fuels - then I think there might be a shot where Hamilton pulls a Lauda, Schumacher and Alonso:
return to F1 to participate with the type of engine he never got to drive. I could see him do that with Mclaren or Aston Martin tbh,

Here's something to ponder about:

Hamilton grabs his 8th tile, and his 9th, then retires from F1.
Verstappen will never grab a WDC title.
Russell will take his 1st after Lewis' retirement.
Max will switch teams but still won't manage a WDC.
Leclerc won't grab a title either.
Norris might though.
Alonso comes close too.

Few years on, F1 being fully switched to Synth fuels and ground effect cars, high revving V8, V10 or V12 will return.
Mclaren and Mercedes invest in a mighty V10 or V12 engine, do a secret test with Hamilton, and decide to wheel him back into F1.
Hamilton is WDC immediately with a super dominant high revving V10/V12 Mclaren and grabs his 10th title.
2nd year on he is still super competitive but competition grows a lot and doesn't go on for a 3rd season and ends his F1 career permanently.

Few things to unpack here. Mercedes won’t make the same mistake Ferrari made with Schumacher. After his retirement they let him go to Mercedes and therefore couldn’t use him as a Ferrari figurehead anymore. Expect good contracts well beyond his racing career.
As for the high revving V10-12’s, nah, that ship has sailed a long long time ago. Even Ferrari road cars are switching to a turbo V6 now.

[Zynerji]

I could see the v10's coming back with synth fuels that are carbon neutral. It would tick ALL of the boxes then...

[Just_a_fan]

I could see the v10's coming back with synth fuels that are carbon neutral. It would tick ALL of the boxes then...

Who is going to build them? No road car manufacturer is doing that sort of engine anymore, which would mean a bespoke unit built by some third party supplier. Ferrari won't race an engine built by someone else and I can't see them wanting to make engines for the entire grid for the one obvious reason.

So, V10s aren't going to be coming back

[Just_a_fan]

Hamilton certainly will grab the 2021 F1 title.

Way too early to declare this season's title winner. Way too early.

[Zynerji]

I could see the v10's coming back with synth fuels that are carbon neutral. It would tick ALL of the boxes then...

Who is going to build them? No road car manufacturer is doing that sort of engine anymore, which would mean a bespoke unit built by some third party supplier. Ferrari won't race an engine built by someone else and I can't see them wanting to make engines for the entire grid for the one obvious reason.

So, V10s aren't going to be coming back

Well, all teams probably still have their 2005 designs that they could update with 2013 V8 tech. I don't think Ferrari, Mercedes, Renault nor Honda have lost their CAD files...