Based on what are you suggesting Honda will compete with the top 3 teams in October? Honda have announced several big upgrades throughout the past 2.5 seasons and basically every time there is no where near the gain nor reliability improvements they claim. They were 3 seconds off Mercedes CRUISING pace in Monza, you think the team that is spending more resources rushing fixes for reliability than working on pure performance is going to make a several times larger than anything Mercedes have made since 2014 in one go?
When Honda actually deliver a great upgrade where I can see the performance on track I'll believe it, when they say a big upgrade is coming, I'll assume they'll deliver about 30% of the claimed performance and kill 3 new engines making it work right.
I'd put the chances of Honda matching Renault in October at.... 3-4% and Mclaren suddenly competing with RBR outside of fluke, safety cars, crashes/contact or some other outside factor then I doubt they'll be anywhere near by the end of next year let alone this October.
