How soon will Vettel / RBR wrap up 2013?

[turbof1]

I thnik y'all are in for a surprise. I forsee a Ferrari resurgence and a liiiitle bit of bad luck for Seb, wdc will be decided in Brazil as was the case last year.

Big difference: Alonso had quite some more points then the second one, but the car wasn't all too great. From Singapore on Vettel blasted the competition away by 4 consecutive wins (singapore, japan, s. korea and india). I don't see Alonso with ferrari doing that. This will be the (very) slightly less dominant version of the 2011 season.

Vettel will loose some points next race, but the 4 races after that will be between red bull and mercedes, and all are going to take points away from Alonso. Singapore is similar to monaco and hungary, so I think that will be mercedes territory. Vettel probably will line up second there. The 3 races after that probably all go to Vettel. So I'd say Abu Dhabi too, with India still a very viable option. Alonso is going to loose on average more then 7 points towards Vettel per race. The only ones capable of ruining Vettel's alcoholic-free party will be Mercedes.

[PlatinumZealot]

Lets face it guys. Vettel's RB9 refined to the Tee. It is the FOURTH evolution of the RB5. It is the great grandson of the RB6 - the fastest F1 car Vettel has ever driven,and the grandson of the RB7, the most dominant of V8 era cars. I just can't see another car consistently challenging the RB9 across the remaining tracks. For me the championship was over since Malaysia I was never expecting a fight for the championship this year.

[CHT]

DC put it very nicely.

For sure RBR will be delighted if Ferrari and Merc continue to pursue this years car.

A lot can happen in eight races, and experience tells us it is not over until it is over.

But championships tend to be won by an accumulation of points until the mid-way point and then a defence of that driver's position thereafter.

There have been exceptions, of course - and last year was one. But Alonso's big points advantage was wiped out last year largely because he was fighting an uneven battle against a superior car.

That's not the case with Vettel this year - the Red Bull is at least as good as anything else out there. So assuming there are no exceptional circumstances it is hard to imagine anyone other than Vettel winning the championship.

Another thing in his favour is that the larger the points gap the more tempting it is for his rivals to start focusing more effort into next year.

If the title is only a longshot, teams like Mercedes and Ferrari are going to start turning off the tap of development earlier to try to steal a march on 2014.

Ferrari have already effectively said they are going to see how things are going after Singapore and then take a view - and that's only in two races' time.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/23844376

[WhiteBlue]

I see a lot of people believing that Mercedes are in a better position with Hamilton to win the WDC and they have practically already given up. So for me Ferrari not taking this stance officially has a lot to do with the driver situation. If they were being realistic they would have huge problems with their fan base and with Alonso. But the outcome of Monza can change things depending on how it goes. If it goes badly for Ferrari then the Tifosi will be up in arms no matter what Ferrari say.

[zeph]

I'm a staunch Alonso supporter, but I don't see him winning his way out of this. Hamilton/Merc aren't quite there yet.

It's tragic and I really feel for Alonso, but as much as I want him to take another championship, I just have this nagging feeling he is doomed to come in 2nd for the remainder of his career. If not to Vettel/RBR, then to Hamilton/Merc, or Raikkonen/McLaren. I can see him ending on 40 career victories and 2 WDC's.

But I hope I'm wrong.

[Morteza]

Has it not been already? Other teams are too slow to react to Red Bull's dominance. They have a great car and a pretty fine driver. The combination is foolproof

[SiLo]

Since his first championship win Vettel seems to have not only a lot of luck, but he's taken the luck of the other drivers as well and it's getting quite tiring following the championship orders, I used to a lot because it has been closer in previous years before Vettel/RBR dominance, but now it's more on a race to race basis and don't pay attention to the championship apart from the midfield where it is always interesting.

It would be nice for him to have at least one DNF and for Hamilton or Alonso to win that race, but I doubt it will happen, and when he does retire, it seems some of his rivals do so at the same race and cannot capitalise.

I'd say India at this rate, although I probably won't watch the race, I find the track incredibly boring.

[beelsebob]

Since his first championship win Vettel seems to have not only a lot of luck, but he's taken the luck of the other drivers as well and it's getting quite tiring following the championship orders, I used to a lot because it has been closer in previous years before Vettel/RBR dominance, but now it's more on a race to race basis and don't pay attention to the championship apart from the midfield where it is always interesting.

It would be nice for him to have at least one DNF and for Hamilton or Alonso to win that race, but I doubt it will happen, and when he does retire, it seems some of his rivals do so at the same race and cannot capitalise.

I'd say India at this rate, although I probably won't watch the race, I find the track incredibly boring.

While I get your sentiment, it's actually not really true. When I added up (some rather guessed) gains and losses last year, it turned out that Vettel had actually had a fair amount (about 30 points worth) of bad luck; just no where near as much as Hamilton (about 200 points worth). Alonso was the one who actually had all the luck, and gained about 40 points from it.

[sennafan24]

While I get your sentiment, it's actually not really true. When I added up (some rather guessed) gains and losses last year, it turned out that Vettel had actually had a fair amount (about 30 points worth) of bad luck; just no where near as much as Hamilton (about 200 points worth). Alonso was the one who actually had all the luck, and gained about 40 points from it.

James Allen estimated about 110 points lost for Lewis at the least, coupled with the possibility of more from the crash in Germany and problems with suspension in Japan which he did not include in the 110 points total as the latter was hard to quantify and the former I guess he did not want to lay the blame at Pastor 100%. I would estimate the total points loss was around 130-140.

Vettel did lose about 40-50, but with the swing of points won/loss for that year, Lewis should have been World Champion all things being equal, but that is the nature of F1 for you. You forgot that Alonso lost a lot with first lap crashes in Japan and Spa, so I would not say he had all the luck. I would say Alonso lost similar to Vettel, around 30-40 points due to bad luck.

This year Vettel had bad fortune at Silverstone, as did Lewis to a lesser degree. If you take car performance away, individual luck for Lewis, Alonso and Vettel has been a lot less this year than last year.

[beelsebob]

While I get your sentiment, it's actually not really true. When I added up (some rather guessed) gains and losses last year, it turned out that Vettel had actually had a fair amount (about 30 points worth) of bad luck; just no where near as much as Hamilton (about 200 points worth). Alonso was the one who actually had all the luck, and gained about 40 points from it.

James Allen estimated about 110 points lost for Lewis at the least, coupled with the possibility of more from the crash in Germany and problems with suspension in Japan which he did not include in the 110 points total as the latter was hard to quantify and the former I guess he did not want to lay the blame at Pastor 100%. I would estimate the total points loss was around 130-140.

If I remember correctly, James Allen's estimate was based purely on mechanical failures, and didn't make an analysis of all drivers, meaning it didn't take into account other drivers losing points because Hamilton would have finished in front of them.

Vettel did lose about 40-50, but with the swing of points won/loss for that year, Lewis should have been World Champion all things being equal, but that is the nature of F1 for you.

Indeed, I'm deffinately not trying to start that (retarded) discussion. Only point out that it's fairly easy to fall into the trap of seeing Vettel being "lucky", when actually, he's just finishing first a lot. To me, the only significant luck Vettel has at the moment is landing in that car/team.

You forgot that Alonso lost a lot with first lap crashes in Japan and Spa, so I would not say he had all the luck. I would say Alonso lost similar to Vettel, around 30-40 points due to bad luck.

Nope, my stats included those loses. He gain a lot through hamilton's retirements, but as you point out, lost a fair amount too through first lap incidents that he had no real hand in.

[sennafan24]

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2012/11/a ... -hamilton/

You made me look at the article again, and you are indeed correct. Maybe your 200 points was not far off, I would estimate with the Brazil incident and the Spa incident included, around 150-175 points which is amazing bad luck. Right up there and maybe surpassing Kimi in 2005 and Senna in 1989!

To me, the only significant luck Vettel has at the moment is landing in that car/team.

Correct, but I have to give him his due, he is very hands on with the team. Plus he did earn his spot in Red Bull, with that stellar year at Toro Rosso. He put himself in the position to be fortunate and made the most of it.

Race for race Alonso could depend on his car/team to not fail him internally, I do not recall any team or mechanical errors in 2012.

[SilverArrow]

http://www.jamesallenonf1.com/2012/11/a ... -hamilton/

You made me look at the article again, and you are indeed correct. Maybe your 200 points was not far off, I would estimate with the Brazil incident and the Spa incident included, around 150-175 points which is amazing bad luck. Right up there and maybe surpassing Kimi in 2005 and Senna in 1989!

To me, the only significant luck Vettel has at the moment is landing in that car/team.

Correct, but I have to give him his due, he is very hands on with the team. Plus he did earn his spot in Red Bull, with that stellar year at Toro Rosso. He put himself in the position to be fortunate and made the most of it.

Race for race Alonso could depend on his car/team to not fail him internally, I do not recall any team or mechanical errors in 2012.

A couple of bad calls/mechanical glitches in Canada and Monza, but other than that very consistent. I still feel there would have been no issues in Monza had it not been for the Spa crash.

[Juzh]

Race for race Alonso could depend on his car/team to not fail him internally, I do not recall any team or mechanical errors in 2012.

Alonso's last mechanical DNF was back in malaysia 2010 when his engine blew up.

[sennafan24]

Race for race Alonso could depend on his car/team to not fail him internally, I do not recall any team or mechanical errors in 2012.

Alonso's last mechanical DNF was back in malaysia 2010 when his engine blew up.

I did not know it was that far back. The above did remind me of a few team errors in 2012.

Ferrari may just be the most reliable car'team on the grid in recent years.

[mnmracer]

Since his first championship win Vettel seems to have not only a lot of luck, but he's taken the luck of the other drivers as well and it's getting quite tiring following the championship orders, I used to a lot because it has been closer in previous years before Vettel/RBR dominance, but now it's more on a race to race basis and don't pay attention to the championship apart from the midfield where it is always interesting.

It would be nice for him to have at least one DNF and for Hamilton or Alonso to win that race, but I doubt it will happen, and when he does retire, it seems some of his rivals do so at the same race and cannot capitalise.

I'd say India at this rate, although I probably won't watch the race, I find the track incredibly boring.

I'm sorry, but that post is filled with factual inaccuracies. What do you base that claim on?