Even though we have only one test remaining and the first race is in just a few weeks, we still have the potential for major rules decisions to make a massive impact on the season, in terms of 1) Merc compression ratio 2) Ferrari start "advantage" and 3) Whatever Stella/McLaren lobby for on "safety" grounds. That being said, if there is no action on any of these items, I think to start the year it's:
Merc
Ferrari/Max
McLaren
Hadjar
—————
Haas/Alpine
—————
Williams/VCARB
Audi
—————
Cadillac/AMR
I think the most likely outcome is a Merc engine nerf and nothing else, in which case I would say it's:
Ferrari/Max/Merc
McLaren/Hadjar
—————
Haas
—————
Alpine/VCARB
Williams/Audi
—————
Cadillac/AMR
I don't personally believe "it's just a couple horsepower" as Toto says, but even in the event of a penalty/change the Merc car looks the most composed. McLaren I think would take the biggest hit, dropping from consistent podium threat to clear No. 4 team. Yes they had exceptional deg on some stints; however, Bahrain is probably one of the worst tracks for rear deg on the whole calendar because of the old pavement combined with a lot of traction. If that would lead to a significant pace advantage *anywhere* it should be here, and yet they are still behind.
Can't wait to be way off when everyone turns up with major updates for the last week of testing

"You can't argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience"
- Mark Twain