DJ Downforce wrote: ↑18 Mar 2026, 15:38
I wonder how Suzuka will go for Ferrari. I expect that they will have the fastest sector 1 throughout the weekend but bleed time in sector 2 and particularly sector 3. I predict the gap to be 0.5 tenths in an optimistic world.
I think I saw Autoracer estimating a 0.3s gap, but who really knows.
S1 is a bit deceptive, because while it does include the high/medium-speed esses in S1, it also includes all of the front straight. I think Ferrari will be strong through the esses, but I don't know that they'll necessarily be significantly ahead of Mercedes there.
S2 is where I'd expect Ferrari will likely be best and have a chance to find time on Mercedes, specifically T9, T10/T11 (hairpin), and T13/T14 (spoon).
S3 will be rough through the back straight and 130R, but I'd expect Ferrari to find time in the chicane. Edit: the more I think about it, I'm not sure 130R will necessarily be flat-out, in which case Ferrari may be able to find some time there, but like the esses, I doubt they'll be significantly ahead of Mercedes.
I'd like to think (hope, maybe) it'll be relatively more competitive than Australia, and probably China, too. But I don't expect they're likely to have a chance to win, barring issues for Mercedes during the race, or an usually poor qualifying.