Predictions for 2013 season

[Stradivarius]

Just looking at this season you can be 100% sure hamilton humiliated button, even though the points dont show it. Everyone who watched races knows this. 18-2 in quali says it all. 2 mechanical dnfs while victory was in sight also dont help his raw statistics. I could analyse further, but all this hamilton/button has been debated 100times over.

In 2012 agree that Hamilton seems to have had more bad luck than Button. But over 3 years it is unlikely that there is any significant difference. You mention 2 mechanical dnfs while victory was in sight for Hamilton. Don't forget Button's mechanical dnf at Monza, where he lost 2nd place. In 2011, Button suffered one more mechanical dnf than Hamilton, so over the last two years, it evens out. 3 dnfs each, if I haven't overlooked anything.

Looking at qualifying is just rediculous in this comparison. 18-2 in quali says next to nothing. Even in 2011 Hamilton beat Button 12 - 7 in qualifying, but that is quite irrelevant. Button beat Hamilton by 43 points in the championship despite suffering from one more mechanical dnf than Hamilton. As I mentioned before, they possess different qualities. Button's win at the last race of 2012 demonstrates this difference. Hamilton was ahead of Button, but lost out when he collided with Hülkenberg. Button stayed out of trouble and won the race. This is no coincidence. Hamilton always drives on the limit in every aspect and this results in more of the good results, but also more of the really bad results. I don't blame Hamilton for the mechanical failures and also not for the collision at Spa. But even if you account for the bad luck and give Hamilton the win in all of these 3 races, his total of points over 3 years will still be comparable to Button's total and then it still doesn't make any sense to say that he is miles ahead.

Maybe you could say that Hamilton is miles ahead when it comes to qualifying and speed over one lap. But in that case, you also have to say that Hamilton is miles behind Button when it comes to driving consistantly through a full race distance without doing anything stupid.

[beelsebob]

Just looking at this season you can be 100% sure hamilton humiliated button, even though the points dont show it. Everyone who watched races knows this. 18-2 in quali says it all. 2 mechanical dnfs while victory was in sight also dont help his raw statistics. I could analyse further, but all this hamilton/button has been debated 100times over.

In 2012 agree that Hamilton seems to have had more bad luck than Button. But over 3 years it is unlikely that there is any significant difference. You mention 2 mechanical dnfs while victory was in sight for Hamilton. Don't forget Button's mechanical dnf at Monza, where he lost 2nd place. In 2011, Button suffered one more mechanical dnf than Hamilton, so over the last two years, it evens out. 3 dnfs each, if I haven't overlooked anything.

You have. Various people have done analyses of last season's "luck", and all of them have come out to Hamilton losing approximately 160 points due to car/team issues, while button gained about 20 odd over the year (due to other people like hamilton having car/team issues).

[Richard]

Why is there so much McLaren love for 2013?

I suppose one positive is that they burst out of box in Feb 2012, but their in season performance has a lot to be desired. They've also lost a top 3 driver.

Personally, based on the momentum of the last 2 years I'd say its going to be a battle between RB and Ferrari. There is the usual caveat that another team might find a magic bullet (ie Brawn 09) as that sort of thing can't be predicted.

[markc]

Why is there so much McLaren love for 2013?

I suppose one positive is that they burst out of box in Feb 2012, but their in season performance has a lot to be desired. They've also lost a top 3 driver.

Personally, based on the momentum of the last 2 years I'd say its going to be a battle between RB and Ferrari. There is the usual caveat that another team might find a magic bullet (ie Brawn 09) as that sort of thing can't be predicted.

I think, personally, it's because 2012 should have been a double for McLaren, yet through many reasons (pitstops, reliability, driver error, etc) they lost both to RB with help from Alonso. This year the consensus seems to be; thanks to stable rules, the same protagonists will be there dukeing it out.

Macca, on the strength of the last few races in '12, seem to have turned the corner on pitstop and reliability issues, and their speed is still there, therefore, for me, they're looking good for this year.

Button has shown that he is good under pressure, he's also shown that he'll take an opportunity. He's VERY comfortable at McLaren, so ultimately that was my reasoning for him being WDC. On constructors that's down to Perez's performance, but if he displays his skills ala Malaysia (and Canada and Italy) then WCC is also an option.

These last few years have been superb, even with an apparent white wash from the RB camp... I'm very excited to see what Macca can do post Hamilton!

[Just_a_fan]

Macca, on the strength of the last few races in '12, seem to have turned the corner on pitstop and reliability issues, and their speed is still there, therefore, for me, they're looking good for this year.

Button has shown that he is good under pressure, he's also shown that he'll take an opportunity. He's VERY comfortable at McLaren, so ultimately that was my reasoning for him being WDC. On constructors that's down to Perez's performance, but if he displays his skills ala Malaysia (and Canada and Italy) then WCC is also an option.

These last few years have been superb, even with an apparent white wash from the RB camp... I'm very excited to see what Macca can do post Hamilton!

Whitmarsh has stated that Button and Perez will get equal treatment. If that is so, then they are in no better a place than they were last year. Last year McLaren should have thrown in behind Hamilton once it was obvious he was the stronger driver by the mid-season. They didn't and failed to take either championship.

If McLaren insist on equal treatment no matter what the drivers are doing then they'll keep losing to teams that have a very definite number 1 driver e.g. RBR and Ferrari.

If Perez comes out of testing well and finishes the first couple of races close to Button then I can see the team imploding because "nice guy" Button will start to get worried and demand more from the team in preference to Perez. If Perez starts the season slowly then Button might be able to get Whitmarsh to back him as defacto number 1 driver. If that happens, and the car is as competitive as last year's was, then McLaren might have a chance. If not, they'll finish 3rd or 4th again.

[FoxHound]

Whitmarsh has stated that Button and Perez will get equal treatment.

Depends what "equal treatment" Whitmarsh was referring to.

Button will be defacto number 1 driver due to his experience. For me, there is no way McLaren will split it's resources between a tried and tested driver in Button to a novice in Perez.
Will they get the same equipment? Certainly.

But when push comes to shove and there is a split between Perez and Button on development direction, and what is required to push the car forward, then McLaren will listen to Button all day. Perez hasn't the raw speed that Hamilton has, so Button should theoretically be looking better in Qualifying. The only thing that could prove the fly in the ointment for this, is if Perez out-Buttons Button.

[Phillyred]

I just wonder how the teams are balancing the decision between focusing on 2013 vs 2014 where there is obviously going to be a huge shift in the regs. All things being equal as far as budgets between 2012 and 2013 I believe we will see the big 3 (Red Bull, McLaren, and Ferrari) battling again as usual with perhaps Lotus edging their podium appearances and perhaps even a win or two.

[jamsbong]

Regarding Button - how good is he. Before the 2009 championship, i think he was clueless in terms of what it takes to be a champion or winning in F1. Many including myself remembered him as mister average. Good car = good results, bad car = bad or no results.

he does not have the natural speed like kimi, hamilton or even Massa. BUT, since working with Brawn and then securing the 2009 championship. He learnt so much and argurably a different F1 driver ever since. He became a thinking man and well aware of his inherent weakness but realise winning a championship is a lot more than just speed. he chose to prove his point by challanging one of the best natural speed driver - Lewis. I see that as a courageous decision. After 3 years, he showed that despite the lack of speed, he can be on par with Lewis on many occasions.

Now there is no more tough teammate. He can focus solely on the championship. mclaren will be the car to beat if the performance is like Brazil 2012. He will have to be as focused as Alonso 2012 to challange the current top breed of drivers though. No Canada 2012 like slumps is permitted.

Overall, i still reckon Vettel, Kimi and Alonso to be 2013 champ contenders. Sorry Button... Please proof me wrong and we all will love this season like 2012.

[godlameroso]

Button is fast, faster than anyone of us here, he's just setup sensitive, so is Grosjean. Let's not forget in 2009 Button wasn't qualifying well towards the end of the season, but the Brawn was still wicked fast. It's just not easy to pass people in F1, and in 2009 there was no DRS. I remember him clawing his way up the field in a good number of races, he had good pace, but just couldn't work the tires hard enough in qualifying.

[beelsebob]

Whitmarsh has stated that Button and Perez will get equal treatment.

Depends what "equal treatment" Whitmarsh was referring to.

Button will be defacto number 1 driver due to his experience. For me, there is no way McLaren will split it's resources between a tried and tested driver in Button to a novice in Perez.
Will they get the same equipment? Certainly.

You only need look at the year that Hamilton and Alonso were at McLaren together to realise that they'll be treated equally. Alonso was enraged by the idea that he, as the world champion, encumbant did not get favoured over the rookie noob.

[raymondu999]

I thought Coulthard-Raikkonen would be a more relatable analogy, in more ways than one.

[beelsebob]

I thought Coulthard-Raikkonen would be a more relatable analogy, in more ways than one.

Heh, slow but reliable second driver staying, while main driver quits and is replaced by young, volatile prodigy, yep, that works well.

[ringo]

Whitmarsh has stated that Button and Perez will get equal treatment.

Depends what "equal treatment" Whitmarsh was referring to.

Button will be defacto number 1 driver due to his experience. For me, there is no way McLaren will split it's resources between a tried and tested driver in Button to a novice in Perez.
Will they get the same equipment? Certainly.

Perez is bringing a lot of the "resources"; he has the Carlos Slim money Mclaren need.
Mclaren have no choice to split resources equally.
Button may be there for three years, but he's no maestro like Alonso where all faith can be placed. His placenta wasn't cut at mclaren like Hamilton either, so i don't think they'll be over warming up to him more-so than when Lewis was there and received no ounce of special treatment.

With Lewis out of mclaren, Button doesn't have that "wrecking ball" or "pulverizer" or "air strike" to soften up things on the front line for him to make his way up either. He's going to have to fight the other drivers when they are at full strength since Lewis isn't going to be there to apply pressure to ruin their tyres or force a mistake.
Button's vulture style wont work so well if he's going to be the one going on the front line to apply the pressure.
So indeed there may be a role reversal in 2013, with Perez playing the vulture this time around and button being the vangaurd. Development paths may infact be less clear with these two drivers. Button is now the one with the target on his back. He's the benchmark, and it's harder to improve a car if your times are the fastest.
I hate to say it, but 2013 may be a Vettel year again.

[FoxHound]

Agree with most of that ringo,

Button is not Hamilton, and he goes about his business in a different manner to Hamilton. If the set up is sweet, Button is bang on the money. If not he flounders.
He does not have the "airstike" in his arsenal as you aptly put it.

But in 2013, it will be a unique situation for McLaren. I think we all agree Perez does not come close to Hamilton in terms of pure speed. Then we also see the comments from both driver(Button) and Boss(Whitmarsh), about Checo's second half performance in 2012.

It is my opinion that McLaren will back both drivers equally in terms of equipment, but direction of development will be dictated by Button and his feedback. Some people are more equal than others.

[ferndal]

Whitmarsh has stated that Button and Perez will get equal treatment.

He's the benchmark, and it's harder to improve a car if your times are the fastest.
I hate to say it, but 2013 may be a Vettel year again.

I must agree. Button will have to be the new pace-setter at Mclaren (or as you say the new benchmark) . And by judging by his “pace” last year – It cannot possibly be enough to challenge Ferrari or RBR next year. I think his main focus would be to keep Perez behind him – (to prevent humiliation), and then secondly if he gets a vastly superior car the WDC... If by some miracle.

Next year will proof the lost value of Hamilton at Mclaren. Since only this combination could challenge the top teams. While Button as the new pace-setter will relegate the team to 4th or 5th.