2025 McLaren F1 Team

[mwillems]

Both

It can't be both. One will prove to have bluffed. Either Stella is correct and Red Bull show something which is worth more than just the low drag package (and Mekies bluffs) or things remain the same as Zandvoort (and Stella bluffs).

Both are playing with media expectations. Neither was bluffing, per se, just making sure that fans on both sides are braced for the worst, because they dont know what will play out.

[McLarenHonda]

Both team leaders are making statements as much to their team members as the public - "do not get complacent!" There's been so much in the media hyping the two race swing towards Red Bull and Max, hype that is needed to boost clicks - nothing wrong with that. Especially with a two week break! It's the fans job to FILTER all the news/hype. I have stayed away from a lot of it and I'm catching up today. Yeah a hangover from a shocker of a weekend!

Regards McLaren losing the WDC over the last 7 races of the season it's mathematically very possible, practically very unlikely. I'll give my opinion why.

It's very unlikely that McLaren have lost all its pace for venues and conditions favourable to the MCL39 (esp high DF and hot track).
It's therefore very likely that there will be at MINIMUM two races which will be dominated by McLaren, like 1-2. where Max loses at least 10 points (there goes 20 points) on top of the 69 point lead Oscar has. I'm going out on a limb and predicting more 1-2s for the team, which will put the WDC in their drivers' hands.
However if the RB can repeat it's low DF form at all 7 races (discounting sprints) Max will need to win all with Oscar 3rd to win by a point.

What could come into play is if Lando loses many points to Max, and Oscar not so many, the team will face the awkward position of team orders. That's a long shot - still unlikely. I close my case (for another 2 weeks at least).

It would take multiple DNFs for PIA and NOR and a perfect season for Verstappen to win. While the latter is definitely possible the former totally requires a massive disaster and bottle of the highest proportions -- something to an extent we have never seen in F1.

I’ll never think “oh this can’t happen” cause it always ends up happening…

One thing is for sure! Max is capable of winning all the remaining races if his car is fast like Monza and Baku! He won’t make mistakes, he won’t have an “off weekend”! So first of all we’ve got take this as a given! And then McLaren has to put Oscar as No1 right away and at least secure as many 2nd places as he can! Of course Oscar has to be up there instead of crashing like Baku…

But to me Norris never looked like a proper championship contender! I was expecting so much more from him really and his performances this year have been below par! The only reason Oscar isn’t further ahead is McLaren not letting him fight Norris properly after the first stint, the dreadful Monza swap and of course having to be quite careful when battling his teammate!

And to be clear I would have no problem if Norris ends up winning it but I feel Oscar has stepped up so much this year and has made some exceptional moves considering it’s only his 3rd season! Not to mention he’s giving me Kimi vibes…

[rbirules]

It would take multiple DNFs for PIA and NOR and a perfect season for Verstappen to win. While the latter is definitely possible the former totally requires a massive disaster and bottle of the highest proportions -- something to an extent we have never seen in F1.

This is incorrect.

Prior to Baku for Max to become WDC he needed to win out and he would need ONE DNF from Oscar, other than that Oscar could finish every race on the podium (mostly 3rd place) and Max could become WDC. The one, and only, required, DNF just happened.

If Max wins out while Lando and Oscar finish 2-3 at every event (seven GPs and three sprint races), in that order, the final WDC would be as such . . .

Max - 454
Oscar - 447
Lando - 446

Oscar could finish second twice, instead of third, and he'd have 453 points. He could also get second, instead of third, in one sprint race and finish with 454 points and lose on countback. In this scenario the gap between Lando and Oscar is also closing with Lando just needing a win (and Max in between them) to leap into the lead, or significantly reduce that gap. Or a couple of McLaren 1-2s would eliminate Max and put Lando right up there with Oscar, heck even a 1-3 would eliminate Max (with him getting second). All to say, it would be hard for McLaren to justify asking Lando to help out Oscar when he himself has very realistic scenarios to become WDC.

We can all speculate as to the odds of Max winning out, but he doesn't need any more DNFs from Oscar or Lando to become WDC, in that scenario. If McLaren have an off race, at say, Vegas, then the scenarios are even easier for Max as Oscar could finish second a few more times. (As shown above, if Max wins out there's nothing Lando can do to become WDC.)

[Badger]

It would take multiple DNFs for PIA and NOR and a perfect season for Verstappen to win. While the latter is definitely possible the former totally requires a massive disaster and bottle of the highest proportions -- something to an extent we have never seen in F1.

This is incorrect.

Prior to Baku for Max to become WDC he needed to win out and he would need ONE DNF from Oscar, other than that Oscar could finish every race on the podium (mostly 3rd place) and Max could become WDC. The one, and only, required, DNF just happened.

If Max wins out while Lando and Oscar finish 2-3 at every event (seven GPs and three sprint races), in that order, the final WDC would be as such . . .

Max - 454
Oscar - 447
Lando - 446

Oscar could finish second twice, instead of third, and he'd have 453 points. He could also get second, instead of third, in one sprint race and finish with 454 points and lose on countback. In this scenario the gap between Lando and Oscar is also closing with Lando just needing a win (and Max in between them) to leap into the lead, or significantly reduce that gap. Or a couple of McLaren 1-2s would eliminate Max and put Lando right up there with Oscar, heck even a 1-3 would eliminate Max (with him getting second). All to say, it would be hard for McLaren to justify asking Lando to help out Oscar when he himself has very realistic scenarios to become WDC.

We can all speculate as to the odds of Max winning out, but he doesn't need any more DNFs from Oscar or Lando to become WDC, in that scenario. If McLaren have an off race, at say, Vegas, then the scenarios are even easier for Max as Oscar could finish second a few more times. (As shown above, if Max wins out there's nothing Lando can do to become WDC.)

In a strictly mathematical model you are correct, but in the real world it’s absolutely going to take DNFs or non-scores. At least two such events for Piastri, one for Norris, combined with the assumption that Max and RB are truly resurgent and pretty much perfect from here on out.

[rbirules]

It would take multiple DNFs for PIA and NOR and a perfect season for Verstappen to win. While the latter is definitely possible the former totally requires a massive disaster and bottle of the highest proportions -- something to an extent we have never seen in F1.

This is incorrect.

Prior to Baku for Max to become WDC he needed to win out and he would need ONE DNF from Oscar, other than that Oscar could finish every race on the podium (mostly 3rd place) and Max could become WDC. The one, and only, required, DNF just happened.

If Max wins out while Lando and Oscar finish 2-3 at every event (seven GPs and three sprint races), in that order, the final WDC would be as such . . .

Max - 454
Oscar - 447
Lando - 446

Oscar could finish second twice, instead of third, and he'd have 453 points. He could also get second, instead of third, in one sprint race and finish with 454 points and lose on countback. In this scenario the gap between Lando and Oscar is also closing with Lando just needing a win (and Max in between them) to leap into the lead, or significantly reduce that gap. Or a couple of McLaren 1-2s would eliminate Max and put Lando right up there with Oscar, heck even a 1-3 would eliminate Max (with him getting second). All to say, it would be hard for McLaren to justify asking Lando to help out Oscar when he himself has very realistic scenarios to become WDC.

We can all speculate as to the odds of Max winning out, but he doesn't need any more DNFs from Oscar or Lando to become WDC, in that scenario. If McLaren have an off race, at say, Vegas, then the scenarios are even easier for Max as Oscar could finish second a few more times. (As shown above, if Max wins out there's nothing Lando can do to become WDC.)

In a strictly mathematical model you are correct, but in the real world it’s absolutely going to take DNFs or non-scores. At least two such events for Piastri, one for Norris, combined with the assumption that Max and RB are truly resurgent and pretty much perfect from here on out.

This may seem like semantics, when it is in fact just math, but under this specific scenario that both you and f1isgood have outlined ("a perfect season for Verstappen", "with the assumption that Max and RB are truly resurgent and pretty much perfect from here on out"), then no, those DNFs do not need to occur. It's as simple as that.

I completely agree that under most scenarios Max/RB likely isn't perfect, and doesn't win out. Now granted you qualified your statement when you said "pretty much" perfect. In those scenarios, he would need bad results and/or DNFs from the McLaren drivers. I have no argument with that. But that wasn't what was being discussed ("a perfect [finish to the] season for Verstappen"). Combining the requirements from the imperfect Max/RB scenario with Max's results if he is perfect is just incorrect.

IF Max is PERFECT, THEN Oscar needs to finish on the podium every single event, and must finish 2nd in (at least) three GPs, or finish 2nd in (at least) two GPs and two sprint races to beat Max to the WDC.

A DNF, or two, from Oscar or Lando while Max is perfect makes it an easier WDC for Max. Under the scenario I discussed where every event is Max-Lando-Oscar from here to the end of the season, just one DNF by Lando and Oscar means Max leads Lando by 19 points going into Abu Dhabi and leads Oscar by 12 points (I assumed a double DNF, if Oscar DNFs in another race and finishes 2nd in the race Lando DNFs then Oscar would trail Max by 9 points going into Abu Dhabi).

With two double DNFs (prior to Abu Dhabi), and Max being perfect, Max would clinch the WDC in Qatar, being 27 points ahead of Oscar and 37 ahead of Lando. If they DNF'd in different races and Oscar finished 2nd in Lando's DNFs then Oscar would trail by 21 points (score 3 more points twice) going into Abu Dhabi, meaning Max just needs to finish 8th or higher to become WDC.

As you can see with these examples, any DNFs gives Max a cushion, thus he wouldn't need to be perfect any more. The only thing that stops Max from being WDC with a perfect finish is Oscar getting 2nd in 3+ GPs and 3rd in every other one (I guess he could finish 2nd enough times to squeeze in a non-podium, or two if it's 4th or 5th place).

[WardenOfTheNorth]

So much criticism of Lando. Have we forgotten that the car didn't suit his driving style until the suspension upgrade and yet still he was winning races.

But for the mechanical failure in Netherlands he'd be within single digits of Oscar.

Oscar has definitely stepped up a gear this season, but Lando has been no slouch either.

[Badger]

So much criticism of Lando. Have we forgotten that the car didn't suit his driving style until the suspension upgrade and yet still he was winning races.

But for the mechanical failure in Netherlands he'd be within single digits of Oscar.

Oscar has definitely stepped up a gear this season, but Lando has been no slouch either.

Lando has arguably been just as good this year when you account for Piastri’s latest escapade. It’s just the difference in expectations that works against him. He was considerably better than Oscar last year, and now in a dominant car he hasn’t looked the same. It probably has more to do with Oscar stepping up, but Lando has had his fair share of mistakes too.

[r85]

So much criticism of Lando. Have we forgotten that the car didn't suit his driving style until the suspension upgrade and yet still he was winning races.

But for the mechanical failure in Netherlands he'd be within single digits of Oscar.

Oscar has definitely stepped up a gear this season, but Lando has been no slouch either.

Lando still has an edge over Piastri in overall pace, but it's getting smaller every year. I'd give it 1 or maybe 2 tenths at most, but none of that matters if he doesn't keep a quali lap together or makes a mistake in the race.

Hope Lando gets another shot at the title if he doesn't win this one...

[CjC]

So much criticism of Lando. Have we forgotten that the car didn't suit his driving style until the suspension upgrade and yet still he was winning races.

But for the mechanical failure in Netherlands he'd be within single digits of Oscar.

Oscar has definitely stepped up a gear this season, but Lando has been no slouch either.

How dare you defend Lando

[CjC]

So much criticism of Lando. Have we forgotten that the car didn't suit his driving style until the suspension upgrade and yet still he was winning races.

But for the mechanical failure in Netherlands he'd be within single digits of Oscar.

Oscar has definitely stepped up a gear this season, but Lando has been no slouch either.

Lando has arguably been just as good this year when you account for Piastri’s latest escapade. It’s just the difference in expectations that works against him. He was considerably better than Oscar last year, and now in a dominant car he hasn’t looked the same. It probably has more to do with Oscar stepping up, but Lando has had his fair share of mistakes too.

As has already been noted in here before I think.
Landos upper hand last season was his ability to look after the tyres during a stint which gave him superior race pace for the most part. Now the McLarens main strength is tyre wear Lando has effectively had his advantage wiped out, but that’s not to say I’m taking anything away from Oscar who on the whole has stepped it up as you would expect in his third season.

[AR3-GP]

So much criticism of Lando. Have we forgotten that the car didn't suit his driving style until the suspension upgrade and yet still he was winning races.

But for the mechanical failure in Netherlands he'd be within single digits of Oscar.

Oscar has definitely stepped up a gear this season, but Lando has been no slouch either.

How dare you defend Lando

No one said the car didn't suit Oscar's driving style last year.

[AR3-GP]

Landos upper hand last season was his ability to look after the tyres during a stint which gave him superior race pace for the most part

The qualifying head to head was 20-4 last year.

[CjC]

Oscar is just awesome

[mwillems]

Landos upper hand last season was his ability to look after the tyres during a stint which gave him superior race pace for the most part

The qualifying head to head was 20-4 last year.

But the actual average gap was tiny, there wasn't much time to be found to significantly impact the head to head numbers.

[f1isgood]

Landos upper hand last season was his ability to look after the tyres during a stint which gave him superior race pace for the most part

The qualifying head to head was 20-4 last year.

But the actual average gap was tiny, there wasn't much time to be found to significantly impact the head to head numbers.

What this means is Lando had an edge that was clear enough for basically every race weekend. And when drivers are close in pace, whoever qualified ahead typically wins quite comfortably and Piastri was pretty weak this last phase of the season last year as he fell off quite a bit. Let's see if that happens.