Predictions for 2013 season

[RB7ate9]

For 2013, I will be taking a very close look at Hamilton and Mercedes. I don't expect them to be bagging the championship, but I will be looking to see if Hamilton has what it takes to galvanize the team.

Thinking about what makes a great driver,for Formula 1, I've come to add team management into the mix in addition to pure on-track skill. Since everything in Formula 1 is down to inching that extra tenth, team interaction and building is just as important as developing parts and the racing line. You think of the greats: Clark, Senna, Schumacher, Alonso, you see that these drivers were able to rally a team around them. This matters for development, pit stops, and morale. Vettel, in this case, has taken advantage of the opportunity to do the same: get himself not just a great car, but one that is tuned to HIM and a team that supports him 110%.

With that in mind, I am looking to Hamilton to prove that he, with the experience, can wrestle with the Mercedes team to maturely....mature the group into top contention. I don't know the particulars of his personal background (his dad, his lady, etc.) but I predict that Hamilton will see himself with the chance to mold the team in his image, and he will show his growth as an overall team leader. At least 1 win, with consistent points finishes on merit (barring incidents and reliability) for the team as a whole (including Nico).

[Mika1]

It's hard/impossible to rally McLaren around you as a driver, because of their equal treatment policy. Look at what Ferrari did in USA, that's not going to happen at McLaren. It was embarrassing to see Martin Whitmarsh struggling to admit Lewis was their number one driver for the rest of the 2012 season in Singapore.

[Spankyham]

It's hard/impossible to rally McLaren around you as a driver.....

I thought Button did exactly that last year.

[ringo]

For 2013, I will be taking a very close look at Hamilton and Mercedes. I don't expect them to be bagging the championship, but I will be looking to see if Hamilton has what it takes to galvanize the team.

Thinking about what makes a great driver,for Formula 1, I've come to add team management into the mix in addition to pure on-track skill. Since everything in Formula 1 is down to inching that extra tenth, team interaction and building is just as important as developing parts and the racing line. You think of the greats: Clark, Senna, Schumacher, Alonso, you see that these drivers were able to rally a team around them. This matters for development, pit stops, and morale. Vettel, in this case, has taken advantage of the opportunity to do the same: get himself not just a great car, but one that is tuned to HIM and a team that supports him 110%.

With that in mind, I am looking to Hamilton to prove that he, with the experience, can wrestle with the Mercedes team to maturely....mature the group into top contention. I don't know the particulars of his personal background (his dad, his lady, etc.) but I predict that Hamilton will see himself with the chance to mold the team in his image, and he will show his growth as an overall team leader. At least 1 win, with consistent points finishes on merit (barring incidents and reliability) for the team as a whole (including Nico).

I agree, though i must say Rosberg is going to be hard to subjugate. He is somewhat of a star driver to some extent. He's no Massa or old man Webber. He went to Merc with he mind that after years of hardship, he's going to be the one reviving the silver arrows. Hamilton moving in and trying to usurp him wont be as easy as we think it is.
Rosberg wont be relegated to the shadows like webber or massa, he's young and has ambition. In fact just as much ambition as Hamilton. I feel Hamilton may have it just as hard there as he did with Mclaren, trying to build the team around him.
I feel some of mercedes failures had to do with just that; the Shumacher ambition and the Rosberg ambition conflicting.
This time it's going to be worse, since Rosberg is young and has something to prove.
Maybe in 2014 Hamilton can break Rosberg's ambition and bring the team over, like how Vettel broke Webber's back and erased his dreams.

[LHamilton]

I think Lewis and Mercedes will do well together. I wonder if people underestimate Lewis capability to setup a car and his knowledge. He has said himself that he often know what part of the car he wants to change, if he wants to change his setup.

We often see Button struggling with this and often ask his engineer what to do. Also, McLaren being, in my opinion, hampered by how they work. It seems that the drivers doesnt get as much of an impact on what they want on the car so on and so forth. Red Bull seems to develop the car sort of around the driver, at least around Vettel and how he likes to car to be. In an interview with Vettel (In Singapore I think it was, when their new upgrade came), he said that he could herass the car now the way he wants to, where as McLaren just bring updates to make the car as a whole go faster. I guess its part of their "We-dont-have-a-number-one-driver"-programme.

Now when Lewis is at Mercedes, and Mercedes has said themself that they want Lewis (and Rosberg i guess) to be i vital part of upgrading the car and how they wants it to be. I think you can come a long way if you have a really good balanced car. Mercedes does not gonna have the same amount of downforce as Red Bull, probably. But if they can work together with the drivers to get the right balance and the right parts, they can be just as fast or at lest there or there about.

I think Mercedes will be this years Lotus. Not as fast as the front, but not far away and will be fighting for podiums and wins.

Any wrong spelling, I apologize for since my native language isnt english.

[Stradivarius]

Just looking at this season you can be 100% sure hamilton humiliated button, even though the points dont show it. Everyone who watched races knows this. 18-2 in quali says it all. 2 mechanical dnfs while victory was in sight also dont help his raw statistics. I could analyse further, but all this hamilton/button has been debated 100times over.

In 2012 agree that Hamilton seems to have had more bad luck than Button. But over 3 years it is unlikely that there is any significant difference. You mention 2 mechanical dnfs while victory was in sight for Hamilton. Don't forget Button's mechanical dnf at Monza, where he lost 2nd place. In 2011, Button suffered one more mechanical dnf than Hamilton, so over the last two years, it evens out. 3 dnfs each, if I haven't overlooked anything.

You have. Various people have done analyses of last season's "luck", and all of them have come out to Hamilton losing approximately 160 points due to car/team issues, while button gained about 20 odd over the year (due to other people like hamilton having car/team issues).

I take it you are refering to this thread; http://www.f1technical.net/forum/viewto ... =1&t=14409
so I decided I would write some of my comments to this in that thread, as it is more relevant there.

Here I just want to say that according to the study made in that thread, it is true that the luck last season did a lot of damage to Hamilton, but the difference between Hamilton and Button is more like 140 points, rather than 180 points, as you are suggesting. (Button actually lost points as well due to technical problems last year.) There is however a few considerations that need be made when looking at numbers like this, because it doesn't necessarily make sense to compansate for luck or misfortune in the way that has been done in order to judge what the drivers deserve. Explaination of this and also an illustrative example is presented in the thread linked to above.

If you find a systematic difference between drivers over several years, chances are that this is not due to coincidence.

[Mika1]

It's hard/impossible to rally McLaren around you as a driver.....

I thought Button did exactly that last year.

In that case he is a terrible driver compared to Hamilton, who outperformed him all season long.

[RB7ate9]

@Mika1

Hamilton probably saw what was happening at Red Bull and Ferrari and saw his chance to do the same at Mercedes, considering the hammering they were getting in the press for not doing better. It may be a very very big gamble, but a growing one nonetheless. He supposedly could come back if Mclaren really needs him. Like Alonso with Renault.

@Ringo

If my speculation is correct and Hamilton wants to be the defacto #1 that Mercedes puts its trust in to put them in championship contention, then you're right: Hamilton will definitely want to establish dominance over Rosberg in 2013. Out-qualifying, out-scoring, out-racing, and out-politicizing (supportive press conferences, lots of commercials and advertisements, etc.) will be vital against the fast young German in a corporately German team.

I expect a very interesting intra-Mercedes battle.

[Paul]

Firstly, I strongly disagree that Red Bull make a car specifically suited for Vettel. What early season development proved to me was that they focus on making as fast a car they can using current regulations and their expertise. What they don't do is they don't then throw resources trying to make that car suitable to one of their drivers who is less comfortable with it.

Secondly, even if Rosberg did see himself as a leader of Mercedes in more ways than one, his enthusiasm seemed to have diminished significantly by the end of 2012. I don't think he will be jealous or opposed to Hamilton's attempts to do the same, unless Hamilton actually succeeds at it.

[Spankyham]

It's hard/impossible to rally McLaren around you as a driver.....

I thought Button did exactly that last year.

In that case he is a terrible driver compared to Hamilton, who outperformed him all season long.

Calling Jenson terrible because he isn't quite as fast as Lewis is very harsh

I'd agree that on average, Lewis clearly has the edge on Jenson. But I think Lewis is very very fast. Perhaps his judgment isn't always the best.

[RB7ate9]

Firstly, I strongly disagree that Red Bull make a car specifically suited for Vettel. What early season development proved to me was that they focus on making as fast a car they can using current regulations and their expertise. What they don't do is they don't then throw resources trying to make that car suitable to one of their drivers who is less comfortable with it.

Are you talking the early developments in 2012? When Webber was able to consistently make good finishes, while Vettel was still coming to grips with it (bar Valencia)? When a huge portion of development was towards reclaiming the advantage they had from the the EBD with the assorted combinations of ramps and tunnels? And then the developments in the latter half of 2012 that had a more stable exhaust solution that better emulated the EBD, something that Vettel was better suited towards? All of 2011 and second-half 2012 shows that the Red Bull was better tuned to Vettel's style of driving (planted rear, loose front). Marko, Horner, Newey, Vettel, and Webber have made this very clear.

If anything, the RB8 development illustrates: Yes, Red Bull pushed to make a car that was able to be as fast as possible within the rules and regulations to be competitive, at first. This is where we see the expansion of Webber's ramped B-Spec solutions to Vettel's A-spec. Then, they pushed development to give them the best possible advantage to win both championships. BOTH championships. That means leaning development to what they know, what has worked in the past. That means leaning car development towards Vettel.

Prediction for 2013: With less uncertainty (i.e. stable regulations), expect Webber to be behind Vettel. Vettel will deal with Alonso and Kimi (and maybe a Hamilton in a good Mercedes). Webber will contend with resurgent [-o< Massa, Mclaren, Grosjean, etc.