2025 Oracle Red Bull Racing F1 Team

[AR3-GP]

I've been playing around with a points simulator for the last 5 weekends and created a plausible scenario for Max to win it. The gist of it seems to be that Max has to win 4 GPs, Oscar Piastri must continue to be the slowest in the trio, and finishing behind any Mercedes is fatal, assuming no further DNFs from anybody. Las Vegas is the most important victory, because one anticipates the Mercedes to feature on the podium.

It's also clear that Lando Norris must be disrupted. This scenario shows that Lando is too close even if he just racks up P2s and 1 GP victory in the remaining 5 races. Unfortunately Lando is quite good at racking up P2s when he doesn’t win, and he’s capable of winning. Max would only win with a 2 points margin. If an additional 5 point disruption could be created against Lando Norris beyond what is displayed here, then Max could afford to finish P2 in Abu Dhabi and he wins the title on countback. The current simulation shows minimal disruption of Lando Norris. Just the 1 defeat by Piastri in a race that Max wins. Lando can be further disrupted by Russell and Piastri. He's driving too well so Ferrari don't have a chance to bother him with their car limitations. Any further disruption (more PIA defeats, and a Russell defeat outside of Las Vegas) widens the gap.

These results are doable on Max's side, but then it also depends on the Mclarens. It can't be smooth sailing for them even when you simulate the bad weekend in Las Vegas. They can afford it.




https://ykstv.com/

[AR3-GP]

How to win 4 races? Have the car to win 2 of them and then elbows out in the other 2. The most likely places to be able to defend are Mexico and Qatar due to dirty air in Mexico, and the single DRS zone in Qatar. Abu Dhabi, Brazil, and Las Vegas have to be won on pace. It's too easy to overtake.

[napoleon1981]

Quite frankly, a competative Yuki, one that can qualify infront of mclarens when they have an off day, is in the best interest of RB. The idea that they are sabotaging their own second car is bizarre.

[Sergej]

Basically Max has to win at least 4 GPs, both the Sprints and hope that Lando does at least one third or lower (maybe at Vegas); then he can afford one Lando's win.

[Sergej]

Checked the weather for Mexico: it will be much hotter than last year, 26C vs 20C of last year.

[organic]

Checked the weather for Mexico: it will be much hotter than last year, 26C vs 20C of last year.

Should make overtaking considerably less feasible. I do worry that the thinner air will make it easier for other teams to run lower without as many tradeoffs which should take away some of the quali advantage from cota

[Sergej]

Checked the weather for Mexico: it will be much hotter than last year, 26C vs 20C of last year.

I do worry that the thinner air will make it easier for other teams to run lower without as many tradeoffs

why ?

[f1isgood]

Let's say you're right, conspiracy theorists

Oh no, how could they! They focused on the guy who's suddenly in a championship fight as soon as the car is capable. Such an audacious act

Besides, is having two good drivers even worth it? McLaren might be demonstrating that hazard by the end of the season

Its more like having two evenly matched drivers in a clearly dominant car more than having two good drivers. With two good drivers there wouldnt be this points dropping every weekend.

[f1isgood]

I've been playing around with a points simulator for the last 5 weekends and created a plausible scenario for Max to win it. The gist of it seems to be that Max has to win 4 GPs, Oscar Piastri must continue to be the slowest in the trio, and finishing behind any Mercedes is fatal, assuming no further DNFs from anybody. Las Vegas is the most important victory, because one anticipates the Mercedes to feature on the podium.

It's also clear that Lando Norris must be disrupted. This scenario shows that Lando is too close even if he just racks up P2s and 1 GP victory in the remaining 5 races. Unfortunately Lando is quite good at racking up P2s when he doesn’t win, and he’s capable of winning. Max would only win with a 2 points margin. If an additional 5 point disruption could be created against Lando Norris beyond what is displayed here, then Max could afford to finish P2 in Abu Dhabi and he wins the title on countback. The current simulation shows minimal disruption of Lando Norris. Just the 1 defeat by Piastri in a race that Max wins. Lando can be further disrupted by Russell and Piastri. He's driving too well so Ferrari don't have a chance to bother him with their car limitations. Any further disruption (more PIA defeats, and a Russell defeat outside of Las Vegas) widens the gap.

These results are doable on Max's side, but then it also depends on the Mclarens. It can't be smooth sailing for them even when you simulate the bad weekend in Las Vegas. They can afford it.


https://i.postimg.cc/268vrbdV/image.png

https://ykstv.com/

My feeling is the championship will be only close between 2 drivers. I hope its Max and one of Lando or Oscar and the not between the latter. I also think championship will be mostly decided by Abu Dhabi in that AD will be a decider only if someone DNFs before.

[CjC]

They are just so focused on Max. Who on earth would want to be the second driver

You were quiet when Max missed his final run in Q3 because of the team. The post above is for your viewing as well.

I’ve chosen not to discuss the fortune or misfortune of Verstappen anymore. The blade is too sharp on the subject on this forum for it to be even mildly interesting.

Can you imagine if I did? The rain of slander towards Lando and the praise that would have been lavished upon Max would have been once again insufferable. It was bad enough them all gloating in the Mclaren thread after sprint quali with a 0.079 margin to pole let alone a 0.291 margin.

[Farnborough]

I've been playing around with a points simulator for the last 5 weekends and created a plausible scenario for Max to win it. The gist of it seems to be that Max has to win 4 GPs, Oscar Piastri must continue to be the slowest in the trio, and finishing behind any Mercedes is fatal, assuming no further DNFs from anybody. Las Vegas is the most important victory, because one anticipates the Mercedes to feature on the podium.

It's also clear that Lando Norris must be disrupted. This scenario shows that Lando is too close even if he just racks up P2s and 1 GP victory in the remaining 5 races. Unfortunately Lando is quite good at racking up P2s when he doesn’t win, and he’s capable of winning. Max would only win with a 2 points margin. If an additional 5 point disruption could be created against Lando Norris beyond what is displayed here, then Max could afford to finish P2 in Abu Dhabi and he wins the title on countback. The current simulation shows minimal disruption of Lando Norris. Just the 1 defeat by Piastri in a race that Max wins. Lando can be further disrupted by Russell and Piastri. He's driving too well so Ferrari don't have a chance to bother him with their car limitations. Any further disruption (more PIA defeats, and a Russell defeat outside of Las Vegas) widens the gap.

These results are doable on Max's side, but then it also depends on the Mclarens. It can't be smooth sailing for them even when you simulate the bad weekend in Las Vegas. They can afford it.


https://i.postimg.cc/268vrbdV/image.png

https://ykstv.com/

My feeling is the championship will be only close between 2 drivers. I hope its Max and one of Lando or Oscar and the not between the latter. I also think championship will be mostly decided by Abu Dhabi in that AD will be a decider only if someone DNFs before.

It looks more like its moving toward a vettel, Webber, Alonso (was Hamilton in maths reach too ? ) type end to this season to me.

Some of the changes in competitive dispersion, Merc-RB-Ferrari definitely encroaching on McL's generally held margin in first two 2/3 of season. Certainly its getting more complex in success distribution, and enough to bring significant uncertainty.

[Henk_v]

I think the cost cap has made the constructor title unimportant for top teams.
We are watching 11 teams spin narratives to sell stickers on their cars. Top teams used to spend double what they do now. A few million in prize money is fast eclipsed by a champion ressurection narrative as I expect sponsorship prices are lostly linked to driver lerformance.

[f1isgood]

I've been playing around with a points simulator for the last 5 weekends and created a plausible scenario for Max to win it. The gist of it seems to be that Max has to win 4 GPs, Oscar Piastri must continue to be the slowest in the trio, and finishing behind any Mercedes is fatal, assuming no further DNFs from anybody. Las Vegas is the most important victory, because one anticipates the Mercedes to feature on the podium.

It's also clear that Lando Norris must be disrupted. This scenario shows that Lando is too close even if he just racks up P2s and 1 GP victory in the remaining 5 races. Unfortunately Lando is quite good at racking up P2s when he doesn’t win, and he’s capable of winning. Max would only win with a 2 points margin. If an additional 5 point disruption could be created against Lando Norris beyond what is displayed here, then Max could afford to finish P2 in Abu Dhabi and he wins the title on countback. The current simulation shows minimal disruption of Lando Norris. Just the 1 defeat by Piastri in a race that Max wins. Lando can be further disrupted by Russell and Piastri. He's driving too well so Ferrari don't have a chance to bother him with their car limitations. Any further disruption (more PIA defeats, and a Russell defeat outside of Las Vegas) widens the gap.

These results are doable on Max's side, but then it also depends on the Mclarens. It can't be smooth sailing for them even when you simulate the bad weekend in Las Vegas. They can afford it.


https://i.postimg.cc/268vrbdV/image.png

https://ykstv.com/

My feeling is the championship will be only close between 2 drivers. I hope its Max and one of Lando or Oscar and the not between the latter. I also think championship will be mostly decided by Abu Dhabi in that AD will be a decider only if someone DNFs before.

It looks more like its moving toward a vettel, Webber, Alonso (was Hamilton in maths reach too ? ) type end to this season to me.

Some of the changes in competitive dispersion, Merc-RB-Ferrari definitely encroaching on McL's generally held margin in first two 2/3 of season. Certainly its getting more complex in success distribution, and enough to bring significant uncertainty.

I think for the championship to be decided at Abu Dhabi by very fine margins we ideally need Max to keep being perfect, and both McLaren drivers to be within the top 4 positions every race. I have a feeling that while the former is doable barring unforeseen circumstances or just car lacking race pace (which is certainly possible), the latter is a bit tricky with the current form, especially that of Piastri. But yeah let us see what happens. It's very tricky to guess and that does bring -- as you said -- significant uncertainty.

[Farnborough]

Definitely a secure prediction is on shaky ground, it looks.

It's the "spoiler" potential of both Ferrari & Mercedes as their drivers and chassis are in very close proximity pace wise, and with circuit peculiarities thrown in.

There's too many elements for one team to effectively marshall in my view. Very easy to make statement of "get out front and leave the rest to it" type bluster, but the others which are not in contention all have valid points to make, as we've seen in recent races, that run counter to the main championship WDC characters.

Looking forward to the competition over these last races.

[Wouter]

https://www.formel1.de/news/news/2025-1 ... orteil-ist

Five races to the title: Who is in the advantage on the remaining courses

In five races, the 2025 Formula One World Championship will be decided: McLaren or Red Bull? - A small analysis of the remaining tracks

Mexico City

Unevenness, thin air and an extremely long straight characterize the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez. Despite the two long straights - the start-finish straight and the passage between curves 3 and 4 - the teams drive with a lot of downforce as the curves require 7 to 11 high precision. Even a small slide costs noticeable time here.

In the height of Mexico City, air resistance is losing importance anyway, which means that larger wings slow down less - one reason why Red Bull has always been strong here in recent years.

The RB21 is also one of the few cars that generates stable downforce even in the case of the larger ground clearances that are necessary because of the ground waves. Fast curves, in which McLaren's MCL39 shines particularly, is hardly there.

Ferrari was competitive last year, but the SF-25 is having a hard time on uneven tracks thanks to its new philosophy with less ground clearance. In addition, the drivers are struggling with another problem, which they hardly talk about publicly, which is especially noticeable on high-speed circuits.
powered by

Pirelli also has a changed tire staggering: The C1 replaces the C2 as hard, C3 and C4 remain as medium and soft. The aim is to move the teams to two stops - but the improved thermal properties of the 2025 tyres could nullify that again.

In Austin, the hard tire was simply too slow, which is why most teams dodged a stop-off strategy with medium and soft. The previous year in Mexico, the entire Top 10 Medium-Hard raced and stopped within six laps.

Should the hard tire be slower again around 1.5 seconds per lap, a "medium soft festival" with strong tire management is to be expected here again.

Often in Mexico, it is not the pure pace that decides, but who keeps his nerve - a point at which Verstappen failed the previous year when he was too upset about the race over radio.