I think people see it as Winner takes it all because Max has to win. While McLaren have been strong, they've also been strong the all of the weekends since Monza bar Vegas.
It needs a 12+ point swing in the end. Max has to win. Nothing else will give him this point swing. But if he has the pace to win, it's likely that others also come into play, which is what McLaren don't want. I'd be surprised if Mercedes and Ferrari are as far as they appear now by the time the race starts.
If Red Bull can't anyways win, it's curtains as the odds drop even more fast.

