2026 Aston Martin Aramco Formula One Team

[edu2703]

I still think this is a lot of sandbagging. We'll see the real pace in the next test.

No driver in the world would give an interview saying their team's car is 4 seconds off the pace if it weren't true. Much less the team CEO saying they're also off the pace.

It's one thing to lift off the throttle on the straights, drive with slightly lower power modes than the highest mode just to be 1-2 seconds behind the leaders so as not to show full potential yet. It's quite another to be 4 seconds behind.

This is a PR disaster for both Honda and Aston Martin. No team intentionally sandbag this much to the point of appearing too slow compared to the others and scaring away sponsors.

[pantherxxx]

Aston Martin was dead last in WEC Hypercar category as well. They scored 24 points, and Ferrari scored 245. This organization is just so bad at building competitive cars, even Newey and Enrico Cardile can't fix that. + Add a Honda engine that's like lightyears behind everyone else, and you have a 4 seconds gap. Cadillac will beat them probably because at least they have a reliable and relatively good Ferrari engine.

[Leon Kennedy]

I think people need to be wary of blaming Honda 100% for all of the car's shortcomings. Don't get me wrong, they're definitely behind. But thinking "Oh the car's visually striking but slow so it must be the engine ONLY causing the issues" is the *exact same* trap McLaren (and the Alonsistas) fell into in 2015. Just because Adrian Newey's penned the car doesn't give it the golden ticket. From 2000 to 2020 Adrian Newey's cars won the title four times, and that was all in the same ruleset from 2010-2013. Maybe it was PR posturing, maybe it was true, but Red Bull always downplayed his involvement in the ground effect era as well.

I think maybe, just possibly, people have inflated their expectations here. Even taking Newey out of the equation, what have we seen from this team since Stroll bought it in 2018 that gives people confidence that they could jump immediately to the top? In the last decade, they had half of one good season with the AMR23, which they didn't even develop properly. Their only other podium-quality car was the RP20 which was hardly an original design, and one that they couldn't even properly develop in 2021. Ironically the last two years under the Force India guise was the only time they had consecutive years with top-5 WCC finishes.

No, in fact, the nervous handling of the car isn't caused by engine problems. However, even problems with kerbs (like the RB18 suffered from) can be fixed with the right setup. The engine, on the other hand, you can't fix and you have to wait until 2027. Now there are two points: if you say it lacks energy then it is a battery/electric motor problem, if it is a combustion problem etc, torque of turns etc. then it's an ICE problem. Let's try to put the pieces of the puzzle in the right place. If the PU overheats, the team can:
limit electric deployment
reduce turbo pressure
reduce combustion advance
protect MGU-K
In this case, the "lack of energy" is not a structural defect.
We must then understand one fundamental thing: When Alonso loses speed, does he lose it immediately (ICE)
or does he lose it in the last 200–300 meters (ERS)?
This is the key. If it's ERS, it can be fixed with management and cooling.
If it's pure ICE, it's heavier.

At the moment guys, although the statements say otherwise, the ice doesn't seem that bad to me, yes, ok, They have lower idle engine revs than the others, but we don't know if they do them conservatively, seeing everything that happened.

Regarding Newey, he's the last person I'd doubt. He was the one who created the ground effect and steered the engineers in the right direction. And just look at his resume.

[SSJ4]

do we know when the new engine is coming. was it for the second test or just before first race?

[GhostF1]

do we know when the new engine is coming. was it for the second test or just before first race?

We know Honda had a few specs ready to go and are still deciding on the final one for homologation for the 1st race. Tetsushi Kakuda said he was waiting until the last moment to decide the spec to use. So we'll see how today and next week unfolds.

[Fred]

Aston Martin was dead last in WEC Hypercar category as well. They scored 24 points, and Ferrari scored 245. This organization is just so bad at building competitive cars, even Newey and Enrico Cardile can't fix that. + Add a Honda engine that's like lightyears behind everyone else, and you have a 4 seconds gap. Cadillac will beat them probably because at least they have a reliable and relatively good Ferrari engine.

This means literally nothing on a lot of levels.

Firstly, Aston Martin’s sports car racing division is completely separate from the road car manufacturer and F1 team. And by “completely separate” I don’t just mean that it’s a whole separate department under the same company, I mean it’s a completely different company with completely different owners. All Aston GT programmes (so GTE, GT3, and GT4) and their LMH programme are run by Prodrive, who own and operate under the AMR (stands for Aston Martin Racing) badge. They have agreements with the auto manufacturer that allows them to use their cars as a base for the GT cars, but Aston Martin has nothing else to do with these cars, let alone the F1 team which has nothing to do with either companies outside of Lawrence Stroll owning a sizeable portion of the F1 team and the auto manufacturer. He has nothing to do with their sports car racing programme.

Secondly, if you’d watched the WEC you’d realise that Aston Martin actually had a pretty decent year. The first season for any manufacturer is always terrible due to the team needing to get up to speed and the FIA handing out terrible BoPs until they can properly calibrate it. Every single team has had a terrible first year and been completely off the pace like Aston was, the difference is that Aston this year was the only new team so they were at the back on their own, whereas other manufacturers joined with a few other new teams and they’d battle amongst each other at the back. Still, Aston ended up being a lot closer to the main pack than other teams were, which bodes well for them this year, which is their 2nd year and when you typically start seeing teams getting up to speed. That doesn’t mean they’ll immediately be fighting for the title, they still have the least experience on the grid, and there’s some big heavy hitters who’ll be tough to beat. However, they definitely won’t be at the back, and they’ll likely be fairly competitive in the midfield.

In short, you can’t make any inferences on the F1 team’s performance based on the WEC team’s. Never mind that that’s idiotic even for a team like Ferrari where the programmes are fairly close, but doing so would be like judging Mercedes performance based on Haas. There’s just no link between the 2. You also can’t make any inferences on the WEC team’s performance based on last year given how unrepresentative the first year is for every team, typically by design.

[TyreSlip]

Antonio Lobato:

"I spoke with someone close to Fernando, and what they told me was: 'Another year in hell. Another year of suffering.'"

[Leon Kennedy]

Antonio Lobato:

"I spoke with someone close to Fernando, and what they told me was: 'Another year in hell. Another year of suffering.'"

Kakuda said it would be an epic year, and there are statements coming out from Cowell saying Honda would do great.
Guys, let's not let instinct and emotion guide us. Let's enjoy this moment and try to be optimistic. What matters is Australia 2026.

[CHT]

The future of AMR will all depends on Lawrence Stroll ability or willingness to continue to bankroll the team.

Here is snapshot of AMR current financial situation

A failure to deliver strong results—especially in the critical 2026 season with new regulations—would have a substantial negative financial impact on AMR GP Holdings Limited. The team is already operating at a loss with high debt and heavy reliance on performance-linked revenue, so underperformance would compound existing pressures. Here's a breakdown based on current structures:

1. Direct Hit to Prize Money (F1 Revenue Share)
F1 distributes a ~$1.6 billion prize pool annually to teams, heavily weighted by Constructors' Championship position (e.g., 1st gets ~14% or $175m; 10th gets ~6% or $75m).
Aston Martin finished 7th in 2025, earning an estimated $107m (or ~£79–85m). A drop to 8th–10th (realistic "failure" scenario if the 2026 car underperforms) could mean $20–40m less per year.
Over multiple seasons, this creates a compounding gap—top teams get 50–100% more than midfield/backmarkers. This is "free" revenue tied directly to results, with no offsetting cost savings under the cost cap (~$215m in 2026).

2. Erosion of Sponsorship and Commercial Revenue
Sponsorships form a core part of the team's ~$300–400m+ annual revenue (including prize money, licensing, and hospitality). The portfolio is worth ~$90m+ yearly, with Aramco as title sponsor contributing tens of millions (estimates $50–75m).
Poor results damage brand exposure and sponsor ROI. Deals often have performance bonuses/penalties; mid-pack mediocrity could lead to:

Renegotiations or reduced fees.
Difficulty attracting/retaining high-value partners (e.g., tech, luxury brands).
Licensing/merchandise slowdown— the team aims to quadruple this area, but on-track success drives it.
In a bad year, this could shave $10–30m+ off revenue, as seen with other teams during slumps.

3. Worsened Losses and Cash Burn
The team already posts £40–60m annual after-tax losses (e.g., ~£46m in 2024) and burns ~£37m in cash, despite revenue growth from infrastructure and sponsors.
Fixed/high costs (salaries, ops, new Silverstone campus) don't drop much under the cost cap. A revenue shortfall of $30–70m (prize + sponsors) could push losses to £80–100m+ and accelerate cash burn.
This forces more owner funding or asset sales—unsustainable long-term without results.

4. Debt and Liquidity Strain
With ~£311m in long-term debt (as per your 2024 filing), interest and servicing costs are significant (likely £20–30m/year at current rates).
Deeper losses risk covenant breaches, higher refinancing costs, or forced asset pledges. The team has refinanced before (e.g., via HPS), but poor performance weakens bargaining power.
Cash reserves are thin; prolonged failure could require emergency injections.

5. Valuation and Ownership Risks
The team is valued at ~$3.2b (£2.4b) based on recent stake sales (e.g., AML sold 4.6% for ~$146m in 2025). Strong results have driven this up despite on-track struggles.
Failure to contend (e.g., no podiums, bottom-half finishes) could stall or reverse this, making future equity raises harder. Lawrence Stroll has raised £632m+ from F1 stakes to support the road car business—poor F1 performance directly hurts group liquidity.
Extreme case: Investor fatigue or Stroll's limits (road car AML is also loss-making with £1.3b+ net debt) could lead to a discounted sale or restructuring.

Mitigating Factors (Why It's Not Catastrophic)
Stroll's Backing: He's all-in (personal investment >$1b across entities) and views F1 as a long-term play. The team won't fold—F1 franchises are too valuable (~$1b+ minimum).
Cost Cap and Regs: 2026's higher cap (~$215m) and reset give breathing room, but it doesn't fix revenue shortfalls.
Diversification: Growing commercial streams (hospitality, licensing) and Aramco's strategic (non-performance) tie-in provide some buffer.
Historical Resilience: Midfield teams like Williams and Haas survive on owner cash; Aston's infrastructure (wind tunnel, Newey) positions it for recovery.

Bottom Line: A "failure" (e.g., 7th–10th in 2026+) would likely add £50–100m+ in annual pressure through lost revenue and higher burn, increasing reliance on Stroll and risking stalled growth/valuation. It's a high-stakes bet—the 2026 car must deliver to justify the CAPEX and debt. If it doesn't, the team survives but in a more defensive, less ambitious mode. F1's economics reward winners disproportionately.

[gearboxtrouble]

I think Aston Martin has the Saudi put on the whole company. If things go bad financially the Saudis will make Stroll an offer he can't refuse and buy the company including the F1 team. They have a long term plan and unlimited money. Heck the green livery and blingy brand seem almost tailor made for more direct Saudi involvement.

[SealTheRealDeal]

Aston Martin was dead last in WEC Hypercar category as well. They scored 24 points, and Ferrari scored 245. This organization is just so bad at building competitive cars, even Newey and Enrico Cardile can't fix that. + Add a Honda engine that's like lightyears behind everyone else, and you have a 4 seconds gap. Cadillac will beat them probably because at least they have a reliable and relatively good Ferrari engine.

The Valkyrie LMH is basically a joint venture by The Heart of Racing (funding and trackside operations) and Multimatic (car design, assembly, and development) with relatively little input from Aston Martin Racing and (as far as I can tell) no involvement from AMF1 or AMPT. It's more like a privateer car that managed to get an OEM's badge, so it's not particularly relevant to Aston's F1 woes.

But I suppose it's a bad look for the brand if both its top-flight programs are struggling, and overshadowing the continued competitiveness of AMR's GT3 program.

[Rikrikrik]

I think everyone, including myself, is overreacting because of the ghost of 2015. But let's try to cool down and think positively.
Being good right from the start is great, yes, but how much? Maybe starting with an aggressiveness that brings a lot of headaches now, but could translate, later on (mid-year, end) into a lot of improvement and competitiveness.
Alonso already said at the beginning of the week, "The season will be more interesting in the second half, and with Newey, the improvement will be SECONDS."
We have indeed seen, more than once, Newey's projects starting like a disgrace and then were the ones that brought the most results.
We will have to suffer more and try to enjoy the journey; this year everything is new for them. As bad as it may seem, and as much as I hate Honda, they are not stupid and have already worked very well with Newey. I believe that this year we will see substantial improvement in them, in all areas. Alonso already knew this, so much so that he said he will only continue if the second half of the year is actually interesting and he feels that 2027 can be a great year. Perhaps it's really more a case of everything being good separately (They have a problems, yes, im saying theses things arent a disaster like 2015), but it needs time and synergy to work well together. Im curious for an pronnunciment from Honda.

[auem123]

Loboto generally get inside scoop, so, unless some miracle happens, AM will start dead last at Melbourne.

[zoroastar]

When I criticized Honda here, saying they would be a disgrace, people wrote huge articles judging me.

I hear you. I was lambasted too during the off-season for cautioning others about the numerous rumours I found. You just have to brush off those who want to stay in their positive bubble.

the fact is, everybody in here has known that there is a chance that honda or aston would have a lot of trouble starting out this season. BUT, most people dont want to hear the same 2 or 3 people saying the same negative BS every single day for a complete year before it actually happens. all the guys that "predicted" this arent nostradomus, they just complain too much for the last 6 months lol.

[diffuser]

Mike?

Mike Crack, I would guess.
Nowadays he seems to have been demoted to mostly doing press/PR.

Well that's part of the TP job. Maybe Newey's gonna put him back.