Lost leads and inherited wins of the last 10 years

[mnmracer]

Suffering two race-ending mechanical failures from the lead last year, Lewis Hamilton must have been relieved to at least bring the Mercedes home to a fourth place finish in Silverstone. Sebastian Vettel was not as lucky, suffering his second race-ending mechanical failure from the lead since Valencia last year when his gearbox stopped working.

I looked back at the last 10 years, which cover every Grand Prix win from drivers currently on the grid, to see which drivers suffered mechanical failures from the lead, and who were there to pick up the points. If I have overlooked any, feel free to add them.

I have used the following parameters, which I believe to be the most fair:
- retirement must be from the lead, or the virtual lead (right after a pit stop from the lead)
- retirement from the lead while there was another virtual leader does not count
- only leads from the race count, not qualifying
- 'non-mechanical non-driver issues' include team orders, slow pit stops or being crashed into
- 'non-mechanical non-driver issues' do not include strategic calls

2013 British Grand Prix: Sebastian Vettel retires (gearbox); Nico Rosberg wins
2013 British Grand Prix: Lewis Hamilton has mechanical issues (tire); Sebastian Vettel inherits lead
2012 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: Lewis Hamilton retires (engine); Kimi Räikkönen wins
2012 Singapore Grand Prix: Lewis Hamilton retires (engine); Sebastian Vettel wins
2012 European Grand Prix: Sebastian Vettel retires (alternator); Fernando Alonso wins
2011 Brazilian Grand Prix: Sebastian Vettel has mechanical issues (gearbox); Mark Webber wins (though many assume it was a hidden team order)
2011 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: Sebastian Vettel retires (tires); Lewis Hamilton wins
2010 Korean Grand Prix: Sebastian Vettel retires (engine); Fernando Alonso wins
2010 Australian Grand Prix: Sebastian Vettel retires (brakes); Jenson Button wins
2010 Bahrain Grand Prix: Sebastian Vettel has mechanical issues (spark plug); Fernando Alonso wins
2008 Hungarian Grand Prix: Felipe Massa retires (engine); Heikki Kovalainen wins
2008 French Grand Prix: Kimi Räikkönen has mechanical issues(exhaust); Felipe Massa wins
2007 Chinese Grand Prix: Robert Kubica retires (hydraulics); Kimi Räikkönen wins
2006 Japanese Grand Prix: Michael Schumacher retires (engine); Fernando Alonso wins
2006 Hungarian Grand Prix: Fernando Alonso retires (wheel nut); Jenson Button wins
2005 Canadian Grand Prix: Kimi Räikkönen retires (hydraulics); Fernando Alonso wins
2005 United States Grand Prix: Jarno Trulli does not start (tires); Michael Schumacher wins
2005 German Grand Prix: Giancarlo Fisichella retires (hydraulics); Kimi Räikkönen wins
2005 European Grand Prix: Kimi Räikkönen retires (suspension); Fernando Alonso wins
2005 San Marino Grand Prix: Kimi Räikkönen retires (driveshaft); Fernando Alonso wins
2004 Belgian Grand Prix: Fernando Alonso retires (oil leak); Kimi Räikkönen wins
2003 Japanese Grand Prix: Juan Pablo Montoya retires (hydraulics); Rubens Barrichello wins
2003 European Grand Prix: Kimi Räikkönen retires (engine); Ralf Schumacher wins
2003 Austrian Grand Prix: Juan Pablo Montoya retires (engine); Michael Schumacher wins
2003 Brazilian Grand Prix: Rubens Barrichello retires (fuel); Giancarlo Fisichella wins

In the last 10 years:
- Sebastian Vettel retired from, or lost, the lead 7 times due to mechanical issues
- Kimi Räikkönen retired from … the lead 5 times …
- Fernando Alonso retired from … the lead 2 times …
- Lewis Hamilton retired from … the lead 2 times …
- Juan Pablo Montoya retired from … the lead 2 times …
- Rubens Barrichello retired from … the lead once …
- Giancarlo Fisichella retired from … the lead once …
- Robert Kubica retired from … the lead once …
- Felipe Massa retired from … the lead once …
- Michael Schumacher retired from … the lead once …

- Fernando Alonso retired inherited 7 wins from a competitor’s mechanical failure
- Kimi Räikkönen inherited 3 wins …
- Jenson Button inherited 2 wins …
- Michael Schumacher inherited 2 wins …
- Lewis Hamilton inherited 2 wins …
- Giancarlo Fisichella inherited 1 win …
- Heikki Kovalainen inherited 1 win …
- Felipe Massa inherited 1 win …
- Nico Rosberg inherited 1 win …
- Ralf Schumacher inherited 1 win …
- Sebastian Vettel inherited 1 win …
- Mark Webber inherited 1 win …

Non-mechanical non-driver issues:
2012 Brazilian Grand Prix: Lewis Hamilton retires (crashed into by Hülkenberg); Jenson Button wins
2011 British Grand Prix: Sebastian Vettel loses the lead (slow pit stop); Fernando Alonso wins
2010 German Grand Prix: Felipe Massa loses the lead (team order); Fernando Alonso wins
2010 Turkish Grand Prix: Mark Webber loses the lead (crashed into by Vettel); Lewis Hamilton wins
2009 European Grand Prix: Lewis Hamilton loses the lead (slow pit stop); Rubens Barrichello wins
2008 Singapore Grand Prix: Felipe Massa loses the lead (pit stop); Fernando Alonso wins
2008 Belgian Grand Prix: Lewis Hamilton loses the win (post-race penalty); Felipe Massa wins
2008 Canadian Grand Prix: Kimi Räikkönen loses the lead (crashed into by Hamilton); Robert Kubica wins
2007 Brazilian Grand Prix: Felipe Massa loses the lead (team orders); Kimi Räikkönen wins

Conclusion

In the last 10 years:
- Sebastian Vettel retired from, or lost, the lead 8 times due to both mechanical and 'non-mechanical non-driver' issues
- Kimi Räikkönen retired from … the lead 6 times …
- Lewis Hamilton retired from … the lead 5 times …
- Felipe Massa retired from … the lead 4 times …
- Fernando Alonso retired from … the lead 2 times …
- Rubens Barrichello retired from … the lead 2 times …
- Juan Pablo Montoya retired from … the lead 2 times …
- Giancarlo Fisichella retired from … the lead once …
- Robert Kubica retired from … the lead once …
- Michael Schumacher retired from … the lead once …
- Jarno Trulli retired from … the lead once …

- Fernando Alonso retired inherited 10 wins from both competitor’s mechanical and 'non-mechanical non-driver' issues
- Kimi Räikkönen inherited 5 wins …
- Jenson Button inherited 3 wins …
- Lewis Hamilton inherited 2 wins …
- Felipe Massa inherited 2 wins …
- Michael Schumacher inherited 2 wins …
- Rubens Barrichello inherited 1 win …
- Giancarlo Fisichella inherited 1 win …
- Heikki Kovalainen inherited 1 win …
- Robert Kubica inherited 1 win …
- Nico Rosberg inherited 1 win …
- Ralf Schumacher inherited 1 win …
- Sebastian Vettel inherited 1 win …
- Mark Webber inherited 1 wins …

[mep]

Aaah perfect statistic. It proves that Vettel and Raikkonen are the most unlucky drivers and Alonso is the luckiest one.
Something I always was aware of.

[flynfrog]

One could argue that Fred was driving smartly saving the car while the others were pushing the car too hard. It may not be a luck thing at all. Maybe One team was pushing for all out pace while they other sacrificed some speed for reliability. This is about as usefull as point totals if a driver didnt crash the car.

[beelsebob]

Well of course if you look at stats which involve "who was in first at the time" the person who's been in first lots of the time for the past few years tends to come out on top.

Talk about sampling bias.

[flynfrog]

Well of course if you look at stats which involve "who was in first at the time" the person who's been in first lots of the time for the past few years tends to come out on top.

Talk about sampling bias.

also true the guy running second is not going to lose the lead if he does retire.

[radosav]

This proves nothing! This only proves that Vettel can win only from pole position , and that Alonso is always at top !

[WhiteBlue]

It proves that you haver to have a stoic mind disposition if you drive Newey's cars. They are fast but more fragile than others. So you have to take the bitter with the sweet. I think Sebastian is by now used to the pattern. 2010 was the year that has steeled him to take these things on the chin and come back even stronger. Do not expect anything else this season. If I were Alonso It would not be a consolation to me that my competitor is breaking down more often if his car is consistently faster for many seasons.

[JimClarkFan]

Aaah perfect statistic. It proves that Vettel and Raikkonen are the most unlucky drivers and Alonso is the luckiest one.
Something I always was aware of.

Vettel unlucky?
He is driving a Newey car, no amount of bad luck is gonna override the massive amount of good fortune he had in managing to land at a team with Newey as the designer.
lol

Well of course if you look at stats which involve "who was in first at the time" the person who's been in first lots of the time for the past few years tends to come out on top.

Talk about sampling bias.

This lol.

Whilst I applaud the effort into compiling these stats, what would be more informative is if they back tracked lost points in total for all the drivers, irrespective of position, over the course of a season.

[Callum]

How about a table that shows the absolute value for those drivers, to see who has benifted or lost out in total?

[mnmracer]

Well of course if you look at stats which involve "who was in first at the time" the person who's been in first lots of the time for the past few years tends to come out on top.

Talk about sampling bias.

It is up to each their own (you included) to read into this and draw the conclusions you want for it. I just provide the data

Vettel unlucky?
He is driving a Newey car, no amount of bad luck is gonna override the massive amount of good fortune he had in managing to land at a team with Newey as the designer.
lol

The McLaren MP4-20 says differently

Whilst I applaud the effort into compiling these stats, what would be more informative is if they back tracked lost points in total for all the drivers, irrespective of position, over the course of a season.

How about a table that shows the absolute value for those drivers, to see who has benifted or lost out in total?

Surely you guys haven't forgotten about the "alternative history/misfortune threads"?
There's another one planned for the summer break

[motorloon1993]

'2005 German Grand Prix: Giancarlo Fisichella retires (hydraulics); Kimi Räikkönen wins'

That ain't how I remember it...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_German_Grand_Pri

[mnmracer]

'2005 German Grand Prix: Giancarlo Fisichella retires (hydraulics); Kimi Räikkönen wins'

That ain't how I remember it...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_German_Grand_Pri

*cough*
got switcharood with Canada

[scotty86]

Gotta wonder how many of these so-called unfortunate mechanical failures were driver influenced or not. We all know some drivers are inevitably harder on equipment than others. I think that is quite an interesting point of discussion these days. When you compare the amount of engine and gearbox problems Vettel and Hamilton have had compared to their respective team mates.... it isn't all 'bad luck'. Perhaps another case of misleading raw data clouding the true circumstances here in my opinion.

[raymondu999]

It is indeed an interesting question. I remember back in 2010 that Vettel was a very "brash" driver, always bashing the high kerbs on the inside of corners and always going past the kerbs on exit, which probably would have influenced the number of mechanical DNFs he had.

Some of it is probably down to luck, whilst the rest is down to driving.

It would make interesting reading (hint, mnmracer ) to see how many times a driver is ahead of his teammate while suffering a mechanical, versus how many times a driver is behind (to see whether or not there is a correlation between the alleged car-breaking and pace)

[WhiteBlue]

Gotta wonder how many of these so-called unfortunate mechanical failures were driver influenced or not. We all know some drivers are inevitably harder on equipment than others. I think that is quite an interesting point of discussion these days. When you compare the amount of engine and gearbox problems Vettel and Hamilton have had compared to their respective team mates.... it isn't all 'bad luck'. Perhaps another case of misleading raw data clouding the true circumstances here in my opinion.

Come on! How do you damage your spark plugs or your alternator by riding the curbs. Serious observers have known for a long time that Newey's innovations were mostly responsible. If you blow the exhaust on the tyres and they fail in lap one or two how can that be the fault of the driver? And burning fuel in the over run and loosing spark plugs, also driver' fault? The engine spewing it's content over the track on a straight is also the drivers fault? [...]