Who will win the next race? Betting odds!

[WhiteBlue]

The jury is still out on the verdict who will win so all bets are on. The pie in the sky shows betting money on the heroes at betfair. As usual the smart money agrees with my gut feeling. But I know that some of you are thinking different and believe Red Bull will be crap in low downforce trim. So tell us what you think and we can attribute kudos after the race or egg on the face to those who get it wrong. Should be some fun.

[Cold Fussion]

Wouldn't normally say Red Bull will be good at Monza, but it looked like Vettel had so much in hand at Spa so he might be able to pull it off in Monza. Otherwise I would say Alonso, Ferrari looked to have a good race car in Spa which was hampered by a poor quali performance, plus it's mighty in a straight line.

[Juzh]

If FP2 in spa where vettel ran next to zero wing is anything to go by, he will be cruising at monza as well. He was only loosing in time S2 but was miles faster than anyone in flat out S1 and S3. Then we have canada which is another high speed track and we saw another RB clean sweep.

[WhiteBlue]

Vettel had half a second per lap in hand over Alonso in the final stint in Spa and that Red Bull had very little drag it appears. I can imagine that their low downforce package is equally good. I think that Merc will also be up there. They messed up Spa bu cranking up too much downforce on the wings. They are unlikely to get that wrong in Monza again.

[raymondu999]

Not sure I'd agree with extrapolating Spa to Monza though - because a large part of getting speed in Spa is managing to "keep hold of" speed - ie not scrubbing it off through Stavelot, Blanchimont, Eau Rouge etc. There is some of that in Monza in Curva Grande and Parabolica, but otherwise not really. Also, remember that in Spa people are still compromising between S1, S2 and S3, as well as weather. There is less of that in Monza given that it's usually clear anyways, so people will have a clearer setup direction to follow.

RBR has, this year, been stronger at rear-limited circuits rather than front-limited (which S2 in Spa is), so we might in fact see RBR stronger at Monza than at Spa

Having said that I think RBR will be strong in Monza, but for different reasons. Looking at the two low df circuits so far, we've had identical podiums, VET-ALO-HAM. I don't think Monza will be too different. It could be that this is in fact the pecking order for these low-df packages.

[prince]

A car like Merc which is known to be having a great straight line speed, did not showed that kind of a pace in Spa which means it was setup with different anticipation. Hungary was a good example of how Lewis was pulling off overtakes.

Here are the the Qualifying speed trap figures.

Hungary
----------
Name Position Speed
-----------------------------------------------------------
Nico 3 299.0
Lewis 3 299.0
Fernando 8 297.6
Mark 20 293.8
Vettel 21 293.5


Belgium
----------
Name Position Speed
-----------------------------------------------------------
Mark 1 302.7
Vettel 3 299.5
Fernando 6 294.6
Nico 10 293.0
Lewis 14 291.1

It clearly shows that Merc were gambling in Belgium with anticipation of mixed weather and Red Bull put all their money on dry conditions. It was not surprising to see Vettel overtaking Lewis on first lap as he was carrying great top speed. Mark was getting close to Nico in sector 1 and 3, but was losing in sector 2 (downforce sector) and could never overtake. If conditions are going to be dry, expect Merc to set the car up for an ultra low downforce and for a good top speed. It would then be an opportunity for showcasing who has high speed car.

[Cold Fussion]

A car like Merc which is known to be having a great straight line speed, did not showed that kind of a pace in Spa which means it was setup with different anticipation. Hungary was a good example of how Lewis was pulling off overtakes.

Here are the the Qualifying speed trap figures.

Hungary
----------
Name Position Speed
-----------------------------------------------------------
Nico 3 299.0
Lewis 3 299.0
Fernando 8 297.6
Mark 20 293.8
Vettel 21 293.5


Belgium
----------
Name Position Speed
-----------------------------------------------------------
Mark 1 302.7
Vettel 3 299.5
Fernando 6 294.6
Nico 10 293.0
Lewis 14 291.1

It clearly shows that Merc were gambling in Belgium with anticipation of mixed weather and Red Bull put all their money on dry conditions. It was not surprising to see Vettel overtaking Lewis on first lap as he was carrying great top speed. Mark was getting close to Nico in sector 1 and 3, but was losing in sector 2 (downforce sector) and could never overtake. If conditions are going to be dry, expect Merc to set the car up for an ultra low downforce and for a good top speed. It would then be an opportunity for showcasing who has high speed car.

I would like to know where that speed trap is in Spa, because in the race the cars were much faster than 300 km/h. I'm guessing that speed trap is right after Eau Rouge. It's also important to remember that Hamilton didn't have a good run through Eau Rouge on lap 1, where as Vettel did, which is how he easily sailed by and not because the top speed of the Red Bull was superior.

EDIT: After consulting the F1 website, the speed trap is indeed right after Eau Rouge and not at the end of the Kemel straight.

[Juzh]

I would like to know where that speed trap is in Spa, because in the race the cars were much faster than 300 km/h. I'm guessing that speed trap is right after Eau Rouge. It's also important to remember that Hamilton didn't have a good run through Eau Rouge on lap 1, where as Vettel did, which is how he easily sailed by and not because the top speed of the Red Bull was superior.

EDIT: After consulting the F1 website, the speed trap is indeed right after Eau Rouge and not at the end of the Kemel straight.

They had similar top speed but RB had much better acceleration.

[bhall]

I've consulted an oracle of sorts, and it looks like Betfair enthusiasts - and WB's gut feeling - are in for a bad weekend.


(Source: Ask the Magic Eight Ball a Question)

[WhiteBlue]

silly ball! but back on topic. I see that Vettel and Alonso are getting the highest number of votes. Not surprisingly.

[PlatinumZealot]

Not sure I'd agree with extrapolating Spa to Monza though - because a large part of getting speed in Spa is managing to "keep hold of" speed - ie not scrubbing it off through Stavelot, Blanchimont, Eau Rouge etc. There is some of that in Monza in Curva Grande and Parabolica, but otherwise not really. Also, remember that in Spa people are still compromising between S1, S2 and S3, as well as weather. There is less of that in Monza given that it's usually clear anyways, so people will have a clearer setup direction to follow.

RBR has, this year, been stronger at rear-limited circuits rather than front-limited (which S2 in Spa is), so we might in fact see RBR stronger at Monza than at Spa

Having said that I think RBR will be strong in Monza, but for different reasons. Looking at the two low df circuits so far, we've had identical podiums, VET-ALO-HAM. I don't think Monza will be too different. It could be that this is in fact the pecking order for these low-df packages.

Yeah but if we go by the last four years of this formula, barring setup anomalies, a good Spa-package usually equals a good Monza package. McLaren had a killer low downforce package for Spa and they walked Monza right after.

[beelsebob]

Monza is heavily rear wheel biased, so I think we can pretty much write off mercedes, they'll cook their rears and be screwed.

They'll get pole by half a second, but then fall away in the race like nobody's business.

[FrukostScones]

I think ALO will win.
Unless PER has this magic like last year....

[WhiteBlue]

Vettel 2.72
Alonso 4.7
Hamilton 4.8

Are the latest odds.

The betting money is having a different opinion than the F1t majority. It will be fascinating to find out who is right in the end. The tifosi have some historical points on their side. On the other hand the Red Bull car this year has done so well in high speed trim that I can really imagine them to be the car to beat in Monza as well.

On top you have the added drama of Ferrari having to convince Alonso to stay put in the next couple of years. So they will be taking all the stops out. It should be a fascinating battle. I'm really looking forward to it.

[WhiteBlue]

Race winner:
Sebastian Vettel 2.8
Fernando Alonso 4.8
Lewis Hamilton 5.1

slight changes but nothing substantial

Pole:
Lewis Hamilton 2.9
Sebastian Vettel 3.3
Fernando Alonso 8.6

Surprising that pole is thought to go to Hamilton but not victory. I do not fully agree with that. If Lewis puts in on pole I also expect him to be the first at the chequered flag.