I started working on this a while ago, as a little bit of nerdy self expression. My motivation was triggered by a conversation in another topic, but its relevance became applies to the topic Alternative Point Systems. While my work is incomplete, and my graphs are unpolished (note the missing axis titles) I think this crowd will appreciate the data.
While it is fun to play with the idea of alternative point systems, and we pay attention to the minute details of various rule changes, I believe these charts speak volumes about the problems of contemporary F1. Enjoy, speculate, argue. Have fun with it, this is why I am posting it. The data is real, and the source material is directly from the F1 website.
Eric J. Hall (Moxie)
https://sites.google.com/site/f1supernerd/documents
After some thought I've decided to give my own interpretation of the charts.
If you look at the chart Team Winning Percentage, you will see that the linear regression trend line, indicates that in 1974 the team that would eventually win the WCC was likely to win 40% of the races that season. However in 2013 that the WCC team was likely to win 60% of the races.
At the same time, the team that would eventually finish third in the WCC standings stood to win 17% of the races. In 2013 the team that finishes third in the WCC standings is likely to win only 10% of the races.
The trend is clear as day, and supports the anecdotal evidence, that the leaders have become superlatively dominant. Competition within F1 has decreased to the point that it is unlikely that any team but the top two will win any of the races.
This data is borne out by the other charts which track the trends in wins for individual drivers, as well podium appearances for both teams and individual drivers.
F1 has become boring, not because of the lack of noise, or point structure. It has become boring because in any given season, the same team wins race after race. Furthermore, if that team does not win in any given race, it is a sure bet which team will.
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