The different balance of the new calendar

[Wynters]

With a new calendar being developed, multiple races at some tracks, no races at others, which team is most likely to benefit?

E.g. We have two races at Austria where, traditionally, Red Bull Racing are very strong. That's good for them.

As we've no real data from this year, I suggest basing speculation on performances over the last few years.

We're currently looking at:-
1.) The Red Bull Ring
2.) The Red Bull Ring
3.) The Hungaroring
4.) The Hungaroring
5.) Silverstone
6.) Silverstone
7.) Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya
8.) Spa
9.) Monza

[Juzh]

As we've no real data from this year, I suggest basing speculation on performances over the last few years.

But we do? Pre-season test.

I'll go out on a limb and predict mercedes clean sweep in normal conditions. I'm basing this assumption off of pre-season test which was some time ago, but back then I've not seen anything from RB and ferrari suggesting they will be a match.
Here's my thinking:

• Ferrari is being pegged back on engine side, limitting their single greatest advantage they had last year on power tracks

• Mercedes low-medium speed cornering in barcelona was on a different level. Mainly trough T5 and entire S3.

• I did some quick frame analysis and found out merc is sandbagging by at least 1s on bottas' 1.15.7s on straights alone compared to his 1.15.4 pole lap from 2019. This is further cemented by observing their straight line performance (310 kmh on C5 runs in first test, 320 kmh on C2 runs - hiding their pace).

• Mercedes' onboard just look like the car is on rails and easy to drive lap after lap. Ferrari suffers from quite unreal levels of their evergreen understeer. Red bull, while seemingly fast, is the exact opposite, it just want to fishtail all the time.

• RB didn't run C5 tires, but did turn up their engines somewhat for final C4 runs, while mercedes did the opposite to protect the engine (307 kmh top speed on their best laps).

[godlameroso]

What do you estimate the Mercedes could do on C4 tires with the engine turned up? Also how much fuel were RB carrying when they made their fastest run? 30 60kg? The engine Honda brought to Melbourne was not the same as in testing, and the chassis was different as well. It will once again be different when the season starts. I agree that Mercedes is still the favorite, but I don't think Ferrari or Red Bull are as far off as testing suggested. I think the top 3 are closer to each other than they were last year.

[dans79]

• RB didn't run C5 tires, but did turn up their engines somewhat for final C4 runs, while mercedes did the opposite to protect the engine (307 kmh top speed on their best laps).

I agree with this, I think RB will be like the 2013 Merc. Fast in qualifying and at a few tracks, but will generally eat the rears and fall back during the race.

[Juzh]

What do you estimate the Mercedes could do on C4 tires with the engine turned up? Also how much fuel were RB carrying when they made their fastest run? 30 60kg? The engine Honda brought to Melbourne was not the same as in testing, and the chassis was different as well. It will once again be different when the season starts. I agree that Mercedes is still the favorite, but I don't think Ferrari or Red Bull are as far off as testing suggested. I think the top 3 are closer to each other than they were last year.

As I said I'm going off of pre-season test, not off of some potential, yet to be seen developments since then. You can play the fuel card for any car of team, so I don't even try, but I hope RB ran with more fuel, for competition's sake.

Mercedes had more slow speed performance on C2 than red bull did on C4 and almost identical high medium-high speed performance. This was on the first day of testing even, while RB did their runs on last day. They have just deliberately massively sandbagged on the engine front.

Anyway, I don't share your optimism about RB's chances, or ferrari's.

[Just_a_fan]

With a new calendar being developed, multiple races at some tracks, no races at others, which team is most likely to benefit?

E.g. We have two races at Austria where, traditionally, Red Bull Racing are very strong. That's good for them.

Not sure that's true. During the V6T era, Mercedes have won 4 of the 6 races. In the other two races, Mercedes had a double mechanical DNF and the infamous overheating issue. Sure, those failures were Mercedes's fault but I'm not sure that correlates with Red Bull being traditionally strong there.

Bottas was 7/10s faster in Q3 than Max in 2018, for example. Max beat Kimi on track, Vettel had a grid penalty so started behind Max anyway. If not for the Mercedes's double DNF, Max probably wouldn't have won.

In 2019, Mercedes dropped the ball with their car design and then Max did his now-famous muscle through on Charles.

As for the rest of the calendar, Mercedes usually do well at Silverstone, Hungary is also a good track for Hamilton although I can see Max winning there. Barcelona will probably be like testing. Spa and Monza are interesting. I can see Max doing well in both as the Red Bull traditionally ends up running less rear wing and is quite quick in a straight line. If the Honda is as good as we think, Max could win both of these quite nicely.

Or Ferrari could turn up with a modern F2002 and blow them all away!

[Jolle]

If you consider that this years cars are pretty much developments from ‘18 and ‘19, the first six rounds could be a nice battle between Verstappen and Hamilton with the last two for Leclerc vs Hamilton

[Wynters]

But we do? Pre-season test.

A good point.

For me, that was a long time ago (judging from the recent comments of various team bosses). Also, whilst I agree that much can be gleaned from pre-season testing, I'm not sure we can rely on it as much as we'd like to. I appreciate that's just my view though and, as I'm a big fan of your analysis', I'll bow to your expertise on this.

[subcritical71]

With all of the recent talks of non-traditional tracks being added, how much will that selection of tracks effect the teams relative performance considering gear selection must be declared at (or before the first event). According to the definition of event, Australia would have started the event but according to rules that event has not yet ended as it didn't meet either criteria to end the event. So this leads me to ponder;
1) when will/was the gear selection to be made for 2020, Australia or Austria?
2) will the teams be given dispensation to modify gear selection if non-standard tracks are added after the declaration date?
3) with the mix of tracks being substantially different, ie. no need for Monaco gearing, will they be allowed to change their allotment once the final schedule is solidified?

[godlameroso]

Whatever works for Barcelona will work for every other track.

[ENGINE TUNER]

Whatever works for Barcelona will work for every other track.

Not necessarily Spa or Monza, or possibly Baku or Hanoi

[NathanOlder]

Yeah a good car at Barcelona is generally a good car all year. But a good car in Barcelona is normally a higher downforce car. So if you took that car to Monza, you would be at the back

But as Godlameroso said, a good car in Barcelona would usually be good everywhere as you will need a very good understanding of your car/aero to go well in Barcelona. One exception would be 2012, but that's down to the Pirelli lottery.

[Bsowles]

Any idea if/when live F1 racing will resume this season?

[3jawchuck]

Any idea if/when live F1 racing will resume this season?

Yeah, the FIA has published a provisional calendar.

[Bsowles]

Thank you.