Ray wrote:Yet your lowly weatherman can't tell me exactly what the weather will be like tomorrow. What a crock, man made global warming. I love the carbon tax that is on it's way here in the US. Another money making scheme. How much money does one corrupt government need anyway? Nevertheless, a very interesting read. Thanks for the links Ciro.
A couple of points
to consider. The amount of human released CO2 from geo/fossil sources can be estimated and the total concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere can be determined. A historical reference of CO2 in the atmosphere can be acquired from polar ice, conserving literally thousands of years' worth of data. A correlation between CO2 and the total solar heat energy captured from sunlight into the oceans, air and ground can be established. There are unknowables and a margin of error, yes, but if everything within those, too, points to one direction and one direction only are we still happy, then, to spew additional CO2 into the air? At least I'm not.
You're right in questioning "carbon taxes", "carbon trading" and other such schemes though, something the examples given by Ciro also highlights. IMO "green energy" tax breaks could provide far better incentives in many instances. Meaningless "feel good exchanges" of money are a real emerging risk. Governmental (i.e. tax payer) money can also seriously impair or even shoot down viable alternatives of reducing unnecessary human related CO2 emissions.
Shrewd power players may lobby very centralised energy solutions over decentralised ones. The temptations for politicians to comply, even against reason, will be great since it will reduce the number of interests and people they will really have to appease to retain their own positions and convenient social structures. It's a game for pretty hard nosed operators and leaves little room for complacency or naïvete for people making the case for solutions that (seemingly) threaten more established interests.
This is not to say that any advances couldn't be aligned with other interests, so it's also unproductive to take an adversarial standpoint by default. Just keep your eyes open and make the very best judgement of the motivations of different people you can. In the end, this is still about growth and common interest, even if it is in a competitive environment.
Ray wrote:The grain they make methanol out of is still full of nutrients for livestock, as far as I've heard anyway. Which won't drive up grain costs like everyone counters. So it seems that's not too bad a way to go. Plus, again as far as I know, the majority of waste gas coming out the pipe is CO2 which is great for plants.
Besides, the devil in me always asks who the authority on how much crude oil is underground and if it's somehow produced by the churning of the Earths guts. I've never seen proof the crude oil is running out, and I've never seen anyone even entertain that it's possible that crude is a natural resource. The oil companies will deny this all day long so they can rape us more as time goes along.
I read about the "case for grain methanol/ethanol" recently when studying the admirable efforts taking place in ALMS. I have to say I've yet to convince myself either way ... my instinct is that the "truth (out there, he he)" is somewhere in between. The process of making methanol/ethanol inevitably removes something from the grain mass that also an animal's metabolism could make use of. But we've got to think the whole cycle through since the animal produces something also etc. The key, really, is
nothing being considered waste. And yes, CO2 is great for plants - if only we had enough room for them to keep the balance going.
As to the theories abiogenic (mineral/geological) oil vs. the established explanations of oil's fossil origins matters very little to me if using the stuff upsets the atmospheric balance no matter how it came to be. The best projections about the abundance of oil go along a bell curve (so it's not going to run out as such, but wither away) and thus far exploration and production trends support the projections. In mere economical terms, the bell curve is very problematic simply because the huge oil based growth is (much of the population growth has also been based on oil) succumbing to supply and demand.
That's not to say that $100/barrel is in any way justified with current knowhow and technologies - not at this point. And here's where the "good ole'" oil companies actually redeem themselves somewhat. The latest trend in the control of supply has been that oil has become nationally, not privately, controlled. The absolute majority of the wells are now actually in more or less direct national control. This breeds corruption and especially the massive inefficiencies and ridiculous supply structures we see today. Oil fuelled conflicts help none but a select few, but that's where unscupulous dictatorial regimes and "religiously/ideologically inspired insurgent/terrorists" waging "asymmetric conflicts" get to play their insidious part.
Some of the results? As I understand it, the
daily income transfer from oil consumers to oil producers is around
$5 billion greater than a mere half a decade or so ago. Oil producers would see their annual profits
rise at a mere $30/barrel, so the discrepancy is alarmingly irrational and large. It's my humble opinion that this mess has to be sorted out; by this I don't mean that oil producers should be summarily scr***d over, and certainly not the numerous citizens of nations that are oil producers. But this has to be solved because until we do, there's a good chance it will only get worse.