Drastic regulation changes = domination?

[Scotracer]

Just a little musing on what may happen next year. With the last two major regulation changes we've seen either one or two teams become much more dominant than the rest of the field.

These two are in 1998 when car width was reduced and grooved tyres were implemented and in 2005 when aero regulations were altered significantly.

In the first example, you had a team that during the 1997 was getting near the front two teams (Ferrari and Williams) but over just one winter period became so much faster than the rest that they managed to lap the entire field.

For the 2nd example, the previously top team, Ferrari could not get their car to work with the new aero and tyre regulations whereas Renault (and later, Mclaren) who were getting near the front in 2004 were drastically ahead of the rest.

Could the 2009 regulations offer such a shake-up? It could be said that the 2005 shake-up was in part due to Bridgestone's inability to create a durable yet high-performing tyre but also the Ferrari chassis was incapable of adjusting to the drastic drop in aerodynamic grip. What a switch from 2004 where they had created the fastest F1 car of all time.

Any opinions and worries for similar in 2009? What if one team finds the sweet-spot for regaining downforce/reducing drag or another has a brilliantly efficient and reliable KERS system? It does offer a great prospect for the next season but I have my worries that the racing wont be improved initially as one team (I can see Williams and Honda pulling ahead to be honest) or more may be so much faster than the rest.

[slimjim8201]

The changes for next year are quite substantial. I see a huge shake up on the brink. At least at the beginning of the season, I predict a very large gap between the top and bottom teams. I'm thinking 4-5 seconds per lap.

[Scotracer]

Yeah, and that worries me. We're supposed to be improving the racing and competitiveness yet we're going to see massive differences between the teams.

I really have no idea who will be fastest next year but as ever, you cannot count out Ferrari or Mclaren.

[zac510]

I think there have been more years where regulation change causes a competitive and interesting year because of that upset.

I don't know what reason you can possibly have to predict 4-5 seconds difference between the top and bottom teams next year. It sounds like just a number you have plucked out of the air rather than basing it on any kind of facts.

[WhiteBlue]

the teams with huge resources obviously have an advantage because they have a chance to stay on the ball 2008 and prepare optimally for 2009. so I see Ferrari and McLaren in a better position than Renault, Red Bull and BMW. For Honda, Williams and Toyota 2008 will be over soon anyway.

Of course there is a chance for a shake up with a big technology change, but I do not think that there will be huge performance differences. the biggest peformance increase dynamics in the past came from tyres, aero and engine. they are all relatively frozen and KERS are limited to very little impact by the political influence of the teams that want to introduce it slowly like Ferrari.

so I think 2009 will be small changes in performance and teams being relatively close in terms of lap times like this year with a chance that teams which do a good job in KERS and packaging it can pull ahead. this obviously involves even a zero KERS option if it prooves to be the most efficient.

so I think good drivers will have huge impact as they are having this year. teams should take care to hire the right guys.

[Scotracer]

Well let us hope that Adrian Newey can show his worth with the new regulations. I really would like to see some creative designs for the coming year.