Post here all non technical related topics about Formula One. This includes race results, discussions, testing analysis etc. TV coverage and other personal questions should be in Off topic chat.
Mmmm... I don't know. What do you prefer: to be rich or to be poor? I'd say it's better to be rich than poor, but I'm not sure. McCain or Obama? Spice Girls or The Beatles? Britney Spears or Shakira? Broccoli or hamburger? Indecision is killing me.
For the record, I would love to watch Hamilton tar and feathered and Massa driving a Toro Rosso, but that's only because I love Kubitza's nose. Weird, isn't it?
While Ciro's suggestion is nice, I'd rather see SadoMax spanking kimi for the utterly terrible season he's had. Being spanked by max is the only logical ending. But seeing both Hamilton and Massa running in a tar-feathered Toro-Rosso wouldn't be bad either. Although that would be more like an Struzzo Nero (black ostrich) instead of a Toro Rosso. I confess, by the way, that I had to look up Struzzo in a Spanish-Italian dictionary.
Hamilton doesn't need to do anything special, he just has to do the same he's been doing this year. If previous races are an indication, Lewis has 29% probablity of doing 6th or worse, and Massa has the same win ratio, giving a coupled 8.7%. Note this has already happened twice this season (Bahrain and France). The other option, Massa 2nd and Hamilton 7th or worse, has a probability of 3.5%. As the options are completely unrelated, this gives Massa approximately 12.2% of winning or as bookers like to say 8.2:1. That is of course without taking rain into account. If it rains, Massa and Hamilton are 2-2 this year, although all four results would crown Hamilton. Pleas note, that I've counted the "official" Spa result.
Regarding the weather, accuweather.com says rain,rain,rain all sunday, while weather.com says that rain probability is 80%. Weather-forecast.com says that heavy rains are to be expected the next three days, with the worse coming... you guessed it! sunday afternoon!
After all this stuff, my personal opinion is that Hamilton will win. Although if it rains it's more likely that Hamilton makes a mistake that is more costly in terms of points, I don't think it's very likely that Massa will finish ahead of Hamilton with bad weaher.
EDIT: My "fair booker" odds for Massa should be 8:1. Bwin spain offers 3.80 for Massa (crap odds) and 1.22 for Hamilton, which is something decent. A spanish site, miapuesta.com, offers much better odds: 1.22 for Hamilton and 4.50 for Massa. Ladbrokes offers 1.14 for Hamilton (these guys are probably covering excess confidence on Lewis) and 5.0 for Massa. Skybet has a different terminology, and puts Hamilton on 1/6 (meaning 1.16667?) and Massa on 7/2 (surely 3.5).
Conclusions: If you want to bet for Lewis, don't ever do it in a british booking site. They are covering for fans putting bets for Hamilton. If you want to bet for Massa, don't settle for less than 4.5:1. If you live in a country without hyperinflation, it's better to keep your money.
I am not amazed by F1 cars in Monaco. I want to see them driving in the A8 highway: Variable radius corners, negative banking, and extreme narrowings that Tilke has never dreamed off. Oh, yes, and "beautiful" weather tops it all.
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." Niels Bohr
Hamilton doesn't need to do anything special, he just has to do the same he's been doing this year. If previous races are an indication, Lewis has 29% probablity of doing 6th or worse, and Massa has the same win ratio, giving a coupled 8.7%. Note this has already happened twice this season (Bahrain and France). The other option, Massa 2nd and Hamilton 7th or worse, has a probability of 3.5%. As the options are completely unrelated, this gives Massa approximately 12.2% of winning or as bookers like to say 8.2:1. That is of course without taking rain into account. If it rains, Massa and Hamilton are 2-2 this year, although all four results would crown Hamilton. Pleas note, that I've counted the "official" Spa result.
I would not bet a stiver against Hamilton.
Enzo Ferrari was a great man. But he was not a good man. -- Phil Hill
