2021 Red Bull Racing F1 Team

[Mr.S]

I think of the remaining tracks -

Mexico & Brazil - RB
Saudi, USA & Turkey - Mercedes
Abu Dhabi & Qatar - 50-50

Mercedes has been quicker by a tenth of 2 on an average since British GP anyways ! So Hamilton has to be incredibly stupid to mess this up !

Mexico and Brazil should be comfortable wins, as the Mercedes engine just doesn’t produce as much output a sits supposed to in those altitudes, and circuit definitely comes to the red bull strengths.

Why are people convinced Turkey, Saudi and USA suit Mercedes more? They seem like 50-50 or maybe slightly leaning Mercedes more in Saudi and Turkey, but to the same degree that Mexico and Brazil suit the Red Bull? I still think the red bull is a better car a little bit, with Hungary being a set up anomaly.

Abu Dhabi and Qatar, I’d say Qatar should be the last track that suits Mercedes a lot, it’s high speed circuit and they’ve allocated the hardest tyre range for that one.

Abu Dhabi? They’re changed two sections of the track where red bull had an advantage but now those two sections are more flowing. It might lean to Mercedes a little more, but I think overall a 50-50 on balance

This championship is Max’s to lose though.

Saudi is more of a power track than a lap with elevation changes & slow corners. It will be like Sochi, maybe slightly behind Mercedes to lose. Same as Mexico with RB.

Mercedes should have the advantage in Turkey, they have the best engine & do good in the faster corners & have the quicker car. Same with USA. I am not saying it will like Sochi Mercedes but Turkey & USA are lean Mercedes. Saudi,I think Likely Mercedes, Mexico Likely Mercedes. Brazil possibly between Lean to Likely, maybe Lean. Brazil is not Mexico but probably somewhere in between a Mercedes circuit & Mexico.

Abu Dhabhi is 50-50 IMO. Mercedes don't have DAS & the floor regulations hurt them more (even with upgrades) & RB16 is a much better car @ the back than last year. Qatar possibly lean Mercedes.You are right. I look @ RB favorites in Mexico, Brazil, Mercedes in Turkey, USA, Saudi, Qatar & Abu Dhabi going 50-50. Maybe USA or Turkey will be very very lean Mercedes. It is minor edge Mercedes IMO.

Also I think Mercedes have the quicker car by a tenth on an average. Lewis has all the luck & is leading. This is his championship to lose IMO but either ways it will go down to the wire !

[Mr.S]

Where does the data come from Merc is faster since Silverstone? Faster than a car in the tire wall (silverstone) faster than half a car in Hungary? Faster in Belgium? Faster in Monza (duh).

I'm not saying it's a done deal, but I also would not be surprised when Max doesn't even have to wait until the last race to be crowned.

Well Mercedes was ahead of RB in Silverstone qualifying & Max was ahead running more downforce & Hamilton found it difficult to follow him after Max overtook him the sprint out. You can argue but Mercedes was at par or a tenth ahead maybe more.

LH was quicker than Max in Hungary comfortably. Max was maybe 1 tenth to 1.5 tenths quicker in Holland. Mercedes were 0.5s quicker in qualifying in Monza, possibly 2-3 tenths quicker atleast in race pace. Mercedes were definitely 2-3 tenths quicker than RB in Sochi, at worst 1-2 tenths.

Belgium got washed out but it is also a track which demands a lot on the engine. On normal conditions, Mercedes would probably have won.

After their huge upgrade in Britain + Engine tricks, Mercedes on an average have been a tenth quicker probably. In power tracks it becomes 2-3 tenths atleast & in tracks with elevation changes/banking/slower corners, maybe RB are a tenth ahead or more. On the whole, in race pace Mercedes is as quick as RB this season & are leading both the WDC & WCC.

[AeroDynamic]

I think of the remaining tracks -

Mexico & Brazil - RB
Saudi, USA & Turkey - Mercedes
Abu Dhabi & Qatar - 50-50

Mercedes has been quicker by a tenth of 2 on an average since British GP anyways ! So Hamilton has to be incredibly stupid to mess this up !

Mexico and Brazil should be comfortable wins, as the Mercedes engine just doesn’t produce as much output a sits supposed to in those altitudes, and circuit definitely comes to the red bull strengths.

Why are people convinced Turkey, Saudi and USA suit Mercedes more? They seem like 50-50 or maybe slightly leaning Mercedes more in Saudi and Turkey, but to the same degree that Mexico and Brazil suit the Red Bull? I still think the red bull is a better car a little bit, with Hungary being a set up anomaly.

Abu Dhabi and Qatar, I’d say Qatar should be the last track that suits Mercedes a lot, it’s high speed circuit and they’ve allocated the hardest tyre range for that one.

Abu Dhabi? They’re changed two sections of the track where red bull had an advantage but now those two sections are more flowing. It might lean to Mercedes a little more, but I think overall a 50-50 on balance

This championship is Max’s to lose though.

Saudi is a power track. It will be like Sochi, Mercedes to lose. Same as Mexico with RB.

Mercedes should have the advantage in Turkey, they have the best engine & do good in the faster corners & have the quicker car. Same with USA. I am not saying it will like Sochi Mercedes but Turkey & USA are lean Mercedes. Saudi,I think Likely Mercedes, Mexico Likely Mercedes. Brazil possibly between Lean to Likely, maybe Lean. Brazil is not Mexico but probably somewhere in between a Mercedes circuit & Mexico.

Abu Dhabhi is 50-50 IMO. Qatar possibly lean Mercedes.

Mercedes have the quicker car. Lewis has all the luck & is leading. This is his championship to lose.

I don’t think you’re correct about some of these things.

I don’t think Mercedes is the faster car. Lewis was a bit faster in Silverstone and Hungary but Max complained of understeer issues in qualifying at both tracks, they struggled with set up in those weekends. Since then, red bull has been performing optimally. Zandvoort for example, Mercedes were slower. Since Silverstone we’ve been at power tracks, that compliment low drag philosophy that Mercedes has, let’s see.

USA has a twisty and slow sector 3, and a maggots and Becketts remake in sector 2 which, at Silverstone, red bull found the most time in, and max barely missed out on pole there in 2019.
The red bull is better than their 2019 car but it now has an engine in the same ball park as the Mercedes, if not better. USA has some fast sections that compliment low drag but not to the degree of Sochi, Spa, or Monza. I think it will be 50-50 but the RB has the edge in general, just not in low drag circuits?

Turkey in theory should compliment Mercedes but there’s a lack of recent history to go on, last year red bull were better but that seemed to be down to conditions, tyre temps and the poor grip on the track. If we have a track in decent condition in Turkey, then perhaps we will get the real picture, and maybe like you say, Turkey will provide the edge to Mercedes. It does have a slow sector 3, so let’s see what red bull can make up with that time, they’re strong in this slow tangled sections.

I agree with Saudi, and I’m confident Qatar is going to be a strong one for Mercedes.

Abu Dhabi I can’t call. The two sectors they changed are slow bus stop like chicanes that red bull liked and now they are flowing corners, it might come to Mercedes more and make it harder for Red bull to make time with less slow sections.


As for luck, Lewis doesn’t have “all the luck” that’s really black and white.

Lewis had bad luck by accidentally hitting the magic button in Baku when he has to swerve away from Perez’s aggression on the restart. As much as Max was unlucky his tyre blew up, he was lucky he didn’t lose 25 pts to Lewis there as well.

Lewis was unlucky that a pit lane oversight by Mercedes in France, cost him track position when they pitted. They could’ve won that.

Was it lucky that lewis’ car suffered more than wear and tear in Austria, costing him 2nd place?

Is it lucky or unlucky, that the only track this year that gave competitors two rounds to bag points on, was Austria, a red bull circuit? 2 for the price at one. Would’ve been fair if Mercedes got two rounds at Sochi, no?

Max had some bad luck in Hungary for sure.

Silverstone and Monza were racing incidents, in those cases, max and Lewis gambled and rolled their own dice, max was unlucky twice, and Lewis once. But those aren’t the kind of lucks you point out because those incidents were in the drivers control, either could’ve yielded.

Since Hungary, everything has gone verstappen’s way when it comes to weather: we know Mercedes struggles with tyre temperature, so wet qualifying gives red bull the advantage, the weather has been kind to verstappen in Belgium, a free win without racing for it.

He was very lucky in Russia that the weather gifted him a second place opportunity after his grid drop, giving him a new engine without penalty in effect. He was on for 7th of 8th even because he spent his tyres desperately to get up the field.

So while I’d say verstappen has had less luck than Lewis, the luck hasn’t all gone lewis’ way, it’s evened out more as the season has progressed.

What about this whole season? We should be in 2022 with new cars. We are racing frozen cars pretty much, the new regs landed in favour of Max, it fell in his lap this year, and Mercedes were behind. Red Bull successfully pushed the FIA to ban engine modes because Honda didn’t have an answer for that. Let’s not forget the fortune that has come into red bulls arms this year.

If the regs weren’t changed 2 or 3 times throughout 2020 because of covid, then Mercedes would’ve maintained their development head start that they had earned from previous years. FIA changed the regs more than once and Mercedes had to start over, allowing red bull to have the same time frame to develop the 21 car pretty much.

[ringo]

I believe, RB really missing Ric here. They are unable to fill his place for years. If RIC with RB, now RB would be leading both the WCC and WDC.

Now it is with Max only. WDC is in Max hands. So, it is up to him to grab or leave it.

They do not want a driver like RIC in the pther seat. Their goal is not to give the next guy a fair chance at being wdc. And im not trolling. It's just the way it is. Max is a big marketi g opportunity and Redbull needed him to be the youngest wdc, and youngest everything for them to stand out for marketing purposes. They could not care less about constructors titles because they dont make road cars. They need a guy, not a car to sell drinks.
So i dont see them getting 2 strong drivers for now. Maybe as long as Max is top tier. If Max drops off form they will bring in the next prodigy to canibalize max and chase him out of the team.

[ringo]

Mexico and Brazil should be comfortable wins, as the Mercedes engine just doesn’t produce as much output a sits supposed to in those altitudes, and circuit definitely comes to the red bull strengths.

Why are people convinced Turkey, Saudi and USA suit Mercedes more? They seem like 50-50 or maybe slightly leaning Mercedes more in Saudi and Turkey, but to the same degree that Mexico and Brazil suit the Red Bull? I still think the red bull is a better car a little bit, with Hungary being a set up anomaly.

Abu Dhabi and Qatar, I’d say Qatar should be the last track that suits Mercedes a lot, it’s high speed circuit and they’ve allocated the hardest tyre range for that one.

Abu Dhabi? They’re changed two sections of the track where red bull had an advantage but now those two sections are more flowing. It might lean to Mercedes a little more, but I think overall a 50-50 on balance

This championship is Max’s to lose though.

Saudi is a power track. It will be like Sochi, Mercedes to lose. Same as Mexico with RB.

Mercedes should have the advantage in Turkey, they have the best engine & do good in the faster corners & have the quicker car. Same with USA. I am not saying it will like Sochi Mercedes but Turkey & USA are lean Mercedes. Saudi,I think Likely Mercedes, Mexico Likely Mercedes. Brazil possibly between Lean to Likely, maybe Lean. Brazil is not Mexico but probably somewhere in between a Mercedes circuit & Mexico.

Abu Dhabhi is 50-50 IMO. Qatar possibly lean Mercedes.

Mercedes have the quicker car. Lewis has all the luck & is leading. This is his championship to lose.

I don’t think you’re correct about some of these things.

I don’t think Mercedes is the faster car. Lewis was a bit faster in Silverstone and Hungary but Max complained of understeer issues in qualifying at both tracks, they struggled with set up in those weekends. Since then, red bull has been performing optimally. Zandvoort for example, Mercedes were slower. Since Silverstone we’ve been at power tracks, that compliment low drag philosophy that Mercedes has, let’s see.

USA has a twisty and slow sector 3, and a maggots and Becketts remake in sector 2 which, at Silverstone, red bull found the most time in, and max barely missed out on pole there in 2019.
The red bull is better than their 2019 car but it now has an engine in the same ball park as the Mercedes, if not better. USA has some fast sections that compliment low drag but not to the degree of Sochi, Spa, or Monza. I think it will be 50-50 but the RB has the edge in general, just not in low drag circuits?

Turkey in theory should compliment Mercedes but there’s a lack of recent history to go on, last year red bull were better but that seemed to be down to conditions, tyre temps and the poor grip on the track. If we have a track in decent condition in Turkey, then perhaps we will get the real picture, and maybe like you say, Turkey will provide the edge to Mercedes. It does have a slow sector 3, so let’s see what red bull can make up with that time, they’re strong in this slow tangled sections.

I agree with Saudi, and I’m confident Qatar is going to be a strong one for Mercedes.

Abu Dhabi I can’t call. The two sectors they changed are slow bus stop like chicanes that red bull liked and now they are flowing corners, it might come to Mercedes more and make it harder for Red bull to make time with less slow sections.


As for luck, Lewis doesn’t have “all the luck” that’s really black and white.

Lewis had bad luck by accidentally hitting the magic button in Baku when he has to swerve away from Perez’s aggression on the restart. As much as Max was unlucky his tyre blew up, he was lucky he didn’t lose 25 pts to Lewis there as well.

Lewis was unlucky that a pit lane oversight by Mercedes in France, cost him track position when they pitted. They could’ve won that.

Was it lucky that lewis’ car suffered more than wear and tear in Austria, costing him 2nd place?

Is it lucky or unlucky, that the only track this year that gave competitors two rounds to bag points on, was Austria, a red bull circuit? 2 for the price at one. Would’ve been fair if Mercedes got two rounds at Sochi, no?

Max had some bad luck in Hungary for sure.

Silverstone and Monza were racing incidents, in those cases, max and Lewis gambled and rolled their own dice, max was unlucky twice, and Lewis once. But those aren’t the kind of lucks you point out because those incidents were in the drivers control, either could’ve yielded.

Since Hungary, everything has gone verstappen’s way when it comes to weather: we know Mercedes struggles with tyre temperature, so wet qualifying gives red bull the advantage, the weather has been kind to verstappen in Belgium, a free win without racing for it.

He was very lucky in Russia that the weather gifted him a second place opportunity after his grid drop, giving him a new engine without penalty in effect. He was on for 7th of 8th even because he spent his tyres desperately to get up the field.

So while I’d say verstappen has had less luck than Lewis, the luck hasn’t all gone lewis’ way, it’s evened out more as the season has progressed.

What about this whole season? We should be in 2022 with new cars. We are racing frozen cars pretty much, the new regs landed in favour of Max, it fell in his lap this year, and Mercedes were behind. Red Bull successfully pushed the FIA to ban engine modes because Honda didn’t have an answer for that. Let’s not forget the fortune that has come into red bulls arms this year.

If the regs weren’t changed 2 or 3 times throughout 2020 because of covid, then Mercedes would’ve maintained their development head start that they had earned from previous years. FIA changed the regs more than once and Mercedes had to start over, allowing red bull to have the same time frame to develop the 21 car pretty much.

Well said
The stars are aligned for Max to win this championship. You make good points on the perception of luck. Max was indeed lucky in all the weather situations this year.
I would say things have evened out and its back to square 1.
Redbull have a car that is inherently better because of the regulations. So they will have the car that will be in the operating window ar every track going forward. I will not argue if it js the best or not, but i know for sure it will be in the operating window 100% of these tracks.
I cannot say the same for Merc. Their car has more weaknesses and is more sensitive to conditions. LH will have to compensate for these issues. Max can just focus on keeping the car on the road and not crashing and he us wdc.

[AeroDynamic]

Saudi is a power track. It will be like Sochi, Mercedes to lose. Same as Mexico with RB.

Mercedes should have the advantage in Turkey, they have the best engine & do good in the faster corners & have the quicker car. Same with USA. I am not saying it will like Sochi Mercedes but Turkey & USA are lean Mercedes. Saudi,I think Likely Mercedes, Mexico Likely Mercedes. Brazil possibly between Lean to Likely, maybe Lean. Brazil is not Mexico but probably somewhere in between a Mercedes circuit & Mexico.

Abu Dhabhi is 50-50 IMO. Qatar possibly lean Mercedes.

Mercedes have the quicker car. Lewis has all the luck & is leading. This is his championship to lose.

I don’t think you’re correct about some of these things.

I don’t think Mercedes is the faster car. Lewis was a bit faster in Silverstone and Hungary but Max complained of understeer issues in qualifying at both tracks, they struggled with set up in those weekends. Since then, red bull has been performing optimally. Zandvoort for example, Mercedes were slower. Since Silverstone we’ve been at power tracks, that compliment low drag philosophy that Mercedes has, let’s see.

USA has a twisty and slow sector 3, and a maggots and Becketts remake in sector 2 which, at Silverstone, red bull found the most time in, and max barely missed out on pole there in 2019.
The red bull is better than their 2019 car but it now has an engine in the same ball park as the Mercedes, if not better. USA has some fast sections that compliment low drag but not to the degree of Sochi, Spa, or Monza. I think it will be 50-50 but the RB has the edge in general, just not in low drag circuits?

Turkey in theory should compliment Mercedes but there’s a lack of recent history to go on, last year red bull were better but that seemed to be down to conditions, tyre temps and the poor grip on the track. If we have a track in decent condition in Turkey, then perhaps we will get the real picture, and maybe like you say, Turkey will provide the edge to Mercedes. It does have a slow sector 3, so let’s see what red bull can make up with that time, they’re strong in this slow tangled sections.

I agree with Saudi, and I’m confident Qatar is going to be a strong one for Mercedes.

Abu Dhabi I can’t call. The two sectors they changed are slow bus stop like chicanes that red bull liked and now they are flowing corners, it might come to Mercedes more and make it harder for Red bull to make time with less slow sections.


As for luck, Lewis doesn’t have “all the luck” that’s really black and white.

Lewis had bad luck by accidentally hitting the magic button in Baku when he has to swerve away from Perez’s aggression on the restart. As much as Max was unlucky his tyre blew up, he was lucky he didn’t lose 25 pts to Lewis there as well.

Lewis was unlucky that a pit lane oversight by Mercedes in France, cost him track position when they pitted. They could’ve won that.

Was it lucky that lewis’ car suffered more than wear and tear in Austria, costing him 2nd place?

Is it lucky or unlucky, that the only track this year that gave competitors two rounds to bag points on, was Austria, a red bull circuit? 2 for the price at one. Would’ve been fair if Mercedes got two rounds at Sochi, no?

Max had some bad luck in Hungary for sure.

Silverstone and Monza were racing incidents, in those cases, max and Lewis gambled and rolled their own dice, max was unlucky twice, and Lewis once. But those aren’t the kind of lucks you point out because those incidents were in the drivers control, either could’ve yielded.

Since Hungary, everything has gone verstappen’s way when it comes to weather: we know Mercedes struggles with tyre temperature, so wet qualifying gives red bull the advantage, the weather has been kind to verstappen in Belgium, a free win without racing for it.

He was very lucky in Russia that the weather gifted him a second place opportunity after his grid drop, giving him a new engine without penalty in effect. He was on for 7th of 8th even because he spent his tyres desperately to get up the field.

So while I’d say verstappen has had less luck than Lewis, the luck hasn’t all gone lewis’ way, it’s evened out more as the season has progressed.

What about this whole season? We should be in 2022 with new cars. We are racing frozen cars pretty much, the new regs landed in favour of Max, it fell in his lap this year, and Mercedes were behind. Red Bull successfully pushed the FIA to ban engine modes because Honda didn’t have an answer for that. Let’s not forget the fortune that has come into red bulls arms this year.

If the regs weren’t changed 2 or 3 times throughout 2020 because of covid, then Mercedes would’ve maintained their development head start that they had earned from previous years. FIA changed the regs more than once and Mercedes had to start over, allowing red bull to have the same time frame to develop the 21 car pretty much.

Well said
The stars are aligned for Max to win this championship. You make good points on the perception of luck. Max was indeed lucky in all the weather situations this year.
I would say things have evened out and its back to square 1.
Redbull have a car that is inherently better because of the regulations. So they will have the car that will be in the operating window ar every track going forward. I will not argue if it js the best or not, but i know for sure it will be in the operating window 100% of these tracks.
I cannot say the same for Merc. Their car has more weaknesses and is more sensitive to conditions. LH will have to compensate for these issues. Max can just focus on keeping the car on the road and not crashing and he us wdc.

Yup, red bull have two or three massive advantages this season:

They have (or had?) the best pit stop crew. In a championship this tight, it’s paying dividends, which leads onto point 2:

They have the best car off the line, and get tyre temps in more effectively than Mercedes does. In an era where the lead is so advantageous due to the difficulty of overtaking another car (even with a faster car) it really is a great strength. This alone won races like Imola, almost Silverstone, Belgium, and definitely helped them fight for Spain.

Lastly, they have the easier car to set up. Most of the time it just works. I think Mercedes have got a grip or their car now for the types of tracks we have left but this definitely hurt them in the early phase of the season, Monaco particularly.

Red bull deserve this championship so far, they’ve been the better team. Red bull always seemed to be the best pit lane / stop crew at the front of the field, I thought Mercedes were close, maybe some years they were, or even better, but that seems to have been when it was straight forward to rely on the data with a stronger car. Maybe there level has dropped this year in general too.

Mercedes has always been the best manufacturer though since 2014. Red bull have the best aerodynamicist in newey but they struggle to fix their problems when they have them. Mercedes have been exceptional at understanding their car and fixing anything with it. They’re also much quicker at development it seems.

[Curbstone]

I don't agree on the luck perceptive. It doesn't come close to evening out.
Calling two races at Austria luck is cluchting straws actually. So is calling pitlane decision luck. It"s a team sport, you don't say Max his stop in Monza was also bad luck do you?There's no luck envolved if one team is beter in certain circumstances. Throwing in the weather as luck is crazy. Every driver still has the same chances of performing well. Sochi was no luck, it was skill.
In Spa the Mercedes team dropped the ball. The luck Max had was that the race was basically canceled, so Lewis wasn't able to compensate for his poor starting position. That's the only point where luck due weather was present.
Max his engine penalty would't even have been needed if he wasn't punted off by Lewis. That incident lost Max a propable win or at least second place, and cost him a start from the back of the grid. Saying he was lucky that the engine penalty didn't cost him more is telling half a story.
Max's his tire blowing was bad luck, Lewis his brake magic was a driver error.
Lewis also had a lot of luck in Imola, where he made a driving error, (two actually as he misjudged the grip in the gravel and broke his front wing) which would have given him a very large gap (more then one lap) to the front runners. But the red flag made that undone earning him a lot more points.
The luck between them has far from evened out.

[AeroDynamic]

I don't agree on the luck perceptive. It doesn't come close to evening out.
Throwing in the weather as luck is crazy. Every driver still has the same chances of performing well. Sochi was no luck, it was skill.
In Spa the Mercedes team dropped the ball. There's no luck envolved if one team is beter in certain circumstances. The luck Max had was that the race was basically canceled, so Lewis wasn't able to compensate for his poor starting position. That's the only point where luck due weather was present.
Max his engine penalty would't even have been needed if he wasn't punted off by Lewis. That incident lost Max a propable win or at least second place, and cost him a start from the back of the grid. Saying he was lucky that the engine penalty didn't cost him more is telling half a story.
Max's his tire blowing was bad luck, Lewis his brake magic was a driving error.
Lewis also had a lot of luck in Imola, where he made a driving error, (two actually as he misjudged the grip in the gravel and broke his front wing) which would have geven him a very large gap to the front runners. But the red flag made that undone earning him a lot more points.
The luck between them has far from evened out.

The only reason we have been doing double weekends at one track is because of covid. It’s not normal or fair. It’s a competition, and we have different circuits for a reason: every car design is being challenge to be fast at circuits that compliment different strengths and punish different weaknesses. Austria is all RedBull. In a championship this tight, an extra go at a track that gives you a win unchallenged, due to covid, is lucky. As I said, Russia actually wanted to do a second round if I remember right, but it wasn’t possible. if it was agreed to it would’ve given Mercedes a second go to bag 25 pts. That would be fair.

Accidentally touching a part of your steering wheel is unlucky if it’s unintentional. Just like max unintentionally double up shifting in zandvoort. If your intention was to change something on your wheel and you change the wrong thing, then I would agree, that wouldn’t be unlucky. Call it driver error, or unlucky, call it whatever you like, but the fact is, max was lucky he didn’t lose a single point to Lewis after his DNF. Losing 25 pts to Lewis was very much on the cards.

We could argue that Max’s tyre blow up was team error, since most other cars didn’t have a problem with their tyre blowing up, according to,Pirelli there was no puncture, and clearly they believe teams were manipulating tyre pressures to close to the limit. So maybe red bull have to look at themselves.

I’m not surprised that some of you don’t agree that weather factors as luck. But I guess it’s down to opinion. However, it’s not just some guy who enjoys watching races on tv that thinks like this. Formula 1 great Alonso, both at Spa, and Sochi, said the others were “lucky” with their finishing positions, which I agree with. The weather is fair when it offers equal opportunity, but when it creates a lottery of who was gifted an opportunity to score more than the others, then it is lucky. Sochi had nothing to do with skill, max made ground because he could change his tyres, that’s it. He wasn’t the only one either, Bottas got from 13th to 5th. They were both lucky they got gifted a chance to fix their finishing positions. Belgium was lucky because the weather cancelled the race, and qualifying in the wet isn’t just about skill, it’s an operational lottery by the teams to see who will get the tyre temperature right. Or do you think Lance stroll out skilled Max in Turkey last year too? I guess that’s why max reacted distraught afterward.

Max wasn’t punted off like a victim. He had a car alongside him through the breaking zone, which he knew was there in a high speed corner. The smart thing to do would’ve been to yield and give space to someone who has taken the right to the corner. Max left space for someone who wasn’t along side him enough to control the corner. But Lewis was very much along side him enough to dictate more racing room to own the corner. It was Max’s decision to force his car towards lewis’ line. It’s a racing incident, almost all drivers agree. That means there’s a share of blame, and thankfully the FIA don’t share max verstappen as fans warped perspective so yes, the engine penalty is his own responsibility.

Yes Lewis was lucky in Imola, max was also lucky at the restart of the race, he almost lost it in front of Leclerc.

success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions.

If your definition of luck is broader than this or different, elaborate?

[etusch]

The only reason we have been doing double weekends at one track is because of covid. It’s not normal or fair. It’s a competition, and we have different circuits for a reason: every car design is being challenge to be fast at circuits that compliment different strengths and punish different weaknesses. Austria is all RedBull. In a championship this tight, an extra go at a track that gives you a win unchallenged, due to covid, is lucky.

Last year Mercedes won Austria and you didn't know redbull would win until you go there. But when redbull won there then second one looked like a free win for redbull. If mercedes have won then it would be a free win for them. Your are starting to think it from mid of timeline dispite you should look from start.

[AeroDynamic]

The only reason we have been doing double weekends at one track is because of covid. It’s not normal or fair. It’s a competition, and we have different circuits for a reason: every car design is being challenge to be fast at circuits that compliment different strengths and punish different weaknesses. Austria is all RedBull. In a championship this tight, an extra go at a track that gives you a win unchallenged, due to covid, is lucky.

Last year Mercedes won Austria and you didn't know redbull would win until you go there. But when redbull won there then second one looked like a free win for redbull. If mercedes have won then it would be a free win for them. Your are starting to think it from mid of timeline dispite you should look from start.

Mercedes won at most tracks because their car was that far ahead that it most of the time didn’t matter how much the track complimented their design. So because of that, those years are different. This championship is like 2007 / 2008. The circuits complimenting the car is much more relevant. even though red bull lost last year, they have won other years? They beat Ferrari and won there in 2019. It is a circuit that compliments their car, and certainly punishes the Mercedes engine with the altitude. Now the cars are on par, this fact has been magnified, clearly.

You can’t use previous years to measure if a track compliments a car or not, not during times when one team had a dominant car that could dominate all tracks. Slice it anyway you want to, red bull bagged 50 pts from the same circuit because it suits them and purely by chance, they were afforded the opportunity to do it. If we raced once in Austria, they would’ve made 7 pts on Lewis in the p1-p2. On the second round they even had the softer tyre allocation, by chance, boosting them again. And Lewis’s car, by chance, got damaged by no fault of his own. Costing him 2nd. That allowed them to gain 13pts in the drivers championship on Mercedes in that weekend alone (that’s almost worth 2 p1-p2 wins over Mercedes alone)

[Gillian]

I believe, RB really missing Ric here. They are unable to fill his place for years. If RIC with RB, now RB would be leading both the WCC and WDC.

Now it is with Max only. WDC is in Max hands. So, it is up to him to grab or leave it.

They do not want a driver like RIC in the pther seat. Their goal is not to give the next guy a fair chance at being wdc. And im not trolling. It's just the way it is. Max is a big marketi g opportunity and Redbull needed him to be the youngest wdc, and youngest everything for them to stand out for marketing purposes. They could not care less about constructors titles because they dont make road cars. They need a guy, not a car to sell drinks.
So i dont see them getting 2 strong drivers for now. Maybe as long as Max is top tier. If Max drops off form they will bring in the next prodigy to canibalize max and chase him out of the team.

This is not true. They did not even want Riciardo to leave. They offered him everything he asked for so he would extend his contact. He himself chose not to.

[Gillian]

I don't agree on the luck perceptive. It doesn't come close to evening out.
Throwing in the weather as luck is crazy. Every driver still has the same chances of performing well. Sochi was no luck, it was skill.
In Spa the Mercedes team dropped the ball. There's no luck envolved if one team is beter in certain circumstances. The luck Max had was that the race was basically canceled, so Lewis wasn't able to compensate for his poor starting position. That's the only point where luck due weather was present.
Max his engine penalty would't even have been needed if he wasn't punted off by Lewis. That incident lost Max a propable win or at least second place, and cost him a start from the back of the grid. Saying he was lucky that the engine penalty didn't cost him more is telling half a story.
Max's his tire blowing was bad luck, Lewis his brake magic was a driving error.
Lewis also had a lot of luck in Imola, where he made a driving error, (two actually as he misjudged the grip in the gravel and broke his front wing) which would have geven him a very large gap to the front runners. But the red flag made that undone earning him a lot more points.
The luck between them has far from evened out.

The only reason we have been doing double weekends at one track is because of covid. It’s not normal or fair. It’s a competition, and we have different circuits for a reason: every car design is being challenge to be fast at circuits that compliment different strengths and punish different weaknesses. Austria is all RedBull. In a championship this tight, an extra go at a track that gives you a win unchallenged, due to covid, is lucky. As I said, Russia actually wanted to do a second round if I remember right, but it wasn’t possible. if it was agreed to it would’ve given Mercedes a second go to bag 25 pts. That would be fair.

Accidentally touching a part of your steering wheel is unlucky if it’s unintentional. Just like max unintentionally double up shifting in zandvoort. If your intention was to change something on your wheel and you change the wrong thing, then I would agree, that wouldn’t be unlucky. Call it driver error, or unlucky, call it whatever you like, but the fact is, max was lucky he didn’t lose a single point to Lewis after his DNF. Losing 25 pts to Lewis was very much on the cards.

We could argue that Max’s tyre blow up was team error, since most other cars didn’t have a problem with their tyre blowing up, according to,Pirelli there was no puncture, and clearly they believe teams were manipulating tyre pressures to close to the limit. So maybe red bull have to look at themselves.

I’m not surprised that some of you don’t agree that weather factors as luck. But I guess it’s down to opinion. However, it’s not just some guy who enjoys watching races on tv that thinks like this. Formula 1 great Alonso, both at Spa, and Sochi, said the others were “lucky” with their finishing positions, which I agree with. The weather is fair when it offers equal opportunity, but when it creates a lottery of who was gifted an opportunity to score more than the others, then it is lucky. Sochi had nothing to do with skill, max made ground because he could change his tyres, that’s it. He wasn’t the only one either, Bottas got from 13th to 5th. They were both lucky they got gifted a chance to fix their finishing positions. Belgium was lucky because the weather cancelled the race, and qualifying in the wet isn’t just about skill, it’s an operational lottery by the teams to see who will get the tyre temperature right. Or do you think Lance stroll out skilled Max in Turkey last year too? I guess that’s why max reacted distraught afterward.

Max wasn’t punted off like a victim. He had a car alongside him through the breaking zone, which he knew was there in a high speed corner. The smart thing to do would’ve been to yield and give space to someone who has taken the right to the corner. Max left space for someone who wasn’t along side him enough to control the corner. But Lewis was very much along side him enough to dictate more racing room to own the corner. It was Max’s decision to force his car towards lewis’ line. It’s a racing incident, almost all drivers agree. That means there’s a share of blame, and thankfully the FIA don’t share max verstappen as fans warped perspective so yes, the engine penalty is his own responsibility.

Yes Lewis was lucky in Imola, max was also lucky at the restart of the race, he almost lost it in front of Leclerc.

success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions.

If your definition of luck is broader than this or different, elaborate?

The way you describe luck is how some people label Hamilton lucky for driving a Mercedes and winning so many championships. While circumstances can be lucky, you are disregarding the fact that is not enough to be successful.

For instance saying Verstappen just got lucky in Sochi disregards the fact he drove a great race. He avoided a collision with Leclerc, did not take risks racing Alonso and when it started to rain he overtook Riciardo and Sainz in the wet on slicks, where others did not even keep the car on the track. How is that luck? If you want talk about luck, look at Bottas the same race.

Calling Baku a team error and twisting Hamilton's mistakes into Verstappens luck is stretching it imo. He drove a stellar race and wasn't even pushing anymore when his tire blew. I don't know how it could be labeled a team error anyway. While Perez did not have problems, Aston Martin had a similar issue. It was a tire problem like we have seen before. Extremely unlucky for Verstappen.

[AeroDynamic]

I don't agree on the luck perceptive. It doesn't come close to evening out.
Throwing in the weather as luck is crazy. Every driver still has the same chances of performing well. Sochi was no luck, it was skill.
In Spa the Mercedes team dropped the ball. There's no luck envolved if one team is beter in certain circumstances. The luck Max had was that the race was basically canceled, so Lewis wasn't able to compensate for his poor starting position. That's the only point where luck due weather was present.
Max his engine penalty would't even have been needed if he wasn't punted off by Lewis. That incident lost Max a propable win or at least second place, and cost him a start from the back of the grid. Saying he was lucky that the engine penalty didn't cost him more is telling half a story.
Max's his tire blowing was bad luck, Lewis his brake magic was a driving error.
Lewis also had a lot of luck in Imola, where he made a driving error, (two actually as he misjudged the grip in the gravel and broke his front wing) which would have geven him a very large gap to the front runners. But the red flag made that undone earning him a lot more points.
The luck between them has far from evened out.

The only reason we have been doing double weekends at one track is because of covid. It’s not normal or fair. It’s a competition, and we have different circuits for a reason: every car design is being challenge to be fast at circuits that compliment different strengths and punish different weaknesses. Austria is all RedBull. In a championship this tight, an extra go at a track that gives you a win unchallenged, due to covid, is lucky. As I said, Russia actually wanted to do a second round if I remember right, but it wasn’t possible. if it was agreed to it would’ve given Mercedes a second go to bag 25 pts. That would be fair.

Accidentally touching a part of your steering wheel is unlucky if it’s unintentional. Just like max unintentionally double up shifting in zandvoort. If your intention was to change something on your wheel and you change the wrong thing, then I would agree, that wouldn’t be unlucky. Call it driver error, or unlucky, call it whatever you like, but the fact is, max was lucky he didn’t lose a single point to Lewis after his DNF. Losing 25 pts to Lewis was very much on the cards.

We could argue that Max’s tyre blow up was team error, since most other cars didn’t have a problem with their tyre blowing up, according to,Pirelli there was no puncture, and clearly they believe teams were manipulating tyre pressures to close to the limit. So maybe red bull have to look at themselves.

I’m not surprised that some of you don’t agree that weather factors as luck. But I guess it’s down to opinion. However, it’s not just some guy who enjoys watching races on tv that thinks like this. Formula 1 great Alonso, both at Spa, and Sochi, said the others were “lucky” with their finishing positions, which I agree with. The weather is fair when it offers equal opportunity, but when it creates a lottery of who was gifted an opportunity to score more than the others, then it is lucky. Sochi had nothing to do with skill, max made ground because he could change his tyres, that’s it. He wasn’t the only one either, Bottas got from 13th to 5th. They were both lucky they got gifted a chance to fix their finishing positions. Belgium was lucky because the weather cancelled the race, and qualifying in the wet isn’t just about skill, it’s an operational lottery by the teams to see who will get the tyre temperature right. Or do you think Lance stroll out skilled Max in Turkey last year too? I guess that’s why max reacted distraught afterward.

Max wasn’t punted off like a victim. He had a car alongside him through the breaking zone, which he knew was there in a high speed corner. The smart thing to do would’ve been to yield and give space to someone who has taken the right to the corner. Max left space for someone who wasn’t along side him enough to control the corner. But Lewis was very much along side him enough to dictate more racing room to own the corner. It was Max’s decision to force his car towards lewis’ line. It’s a racing incident, almost all drivers agree. That means there’s a share of blame, and thankfully the FIA don’t share max verstappen as fans warped perspective so yes, the engine penalty is his own responsibility.

Yes Lewis was lucky in Imola, max was also lucky at the restart of the race, he almost lost it in front of Leclerc.

success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions.

If your definition of luck is broader than this or different, elaborate?

The way you describe luck is how some people label Hamilton lucky for driving a Mercedes and winning so many championships. While circumstances can be lucky, you are disregarding the fact that is not enough to be successful.

For instance saying Verstappen just got lucky in Sochi disregards the fact he drove a great race. He avoided a collision with Leclerc, did not take risks racing Alonso and when it started to rain he overtook Riciardo and Sainz in the wet on slicks, where others did not even keep the car on the track. How is that luck? If you want talk about luck, look at Bottas the same race.

Calling Baku a team error and twisting Hamilton's mistakes into Verstappens luck is stretching it imo. He drove a stellar race and wasn't even pushing anymore when his tire blew. I don't know how it could be labeled a team error anyway. While Perez did not have problems, Aston Martin had a similar issue. It was a tire problem like we have seen before. Extremely unlucky for Verstappen.

I don’t think we were watching the same race in Sochi. I didn’t see a great race from verstappen. Nobody at the time was talking about how great a race he was having, they were describing a near disaster for him because as I said, he spent his tyres aggressively trying to make ground from the back, he got overtaken by Alonso. And it’s not guarantee he would’ve finished as high as 7th because of it. He was struggling. So no, not a fantastic race. The weather came in at just the right time, by chance, and it was a fantastic opportunity that made his race look great. But I share alonso’s opinion, him and Bottas were very lucky to get bailed out of their race going poorly.

I explained the team error part, if red bull manipulates the pressures too much on his tyres, then they have to look at themselves. As you said, his tyre wasn’t under stress, he wasn’t pushing, and it wasn’t even the tyre that was under the most stress in that circuit. So it is plausible that some teams were pushing something like pressures, too close to the limit. We haven’t seen the issue since Pirelli enforces tyre pressure levels.


As for Hamilton in a Mercedes? Definitely lucky how long it turned out they would be successful or dominant for. But certainly not just “lucky”

Was he lucky, or talented, that despite being a rookie, he was able to shine against the best driver on the grid? If he was an ordinary rookie, his career would’ve been alonso’d like vandoornes was. That wasn’t luck, that was pure talent. How does this relate to his Mercedes drive in 2014?
Well Niki Lauda who pursued Hamilton, they could’ve gone for Hulkenberg, especially given he was German, but they went for Lewis. It was Lauda who, back in 07, was so impressed with Lewis that year and told everyone he couldn’t remember any other driver being so impressive in their first season ever. Being that he was in awe of Lewis’ performance as a rookie against Alonso, they knew Lewis was a good driver to pursue with all the data they had in addition. So, Lewis’ talent got him that Mercedes drive as much as it was lucky how dominant they would be.

I wouldn’t boil down all his Mercedes championships to luck either, they earned it in 2017 and 2018, and he had to earn it in 2014 when he had more engine failures than Rosberg did, and had to make up that deficit.

Every champion is lucky when their team develops a top car if you want to look at it that way.

[Curbstone]

*since Pirelli changed the rear tire specifications which seems to favour Mercedes*
There, I fixed it for you.

[Curbstone]

Regarding Austria:
More changes were made on the calendar before teams could adapt to it. If you want to talk about the additional race in Austria, you should also have a look at the other tracks that were changed due to Covid. But you are not because that doesn't suit your agenda I guess.
Lewis had room to take the corner in Silverstone, and got penalized for his mistake. As was Max in Monza. The penalties themselves evened out so that's out of the equation. The points and engine Max lost causing a end-of-grid start doesn't. That's a double bad luck for Max.
In Sochi every driver was gifted the opportunity to switch to inters. Russel switched early on, and every team had the data to see how he was doing, and had a reference on when to switch. That was not a lottery. Even if you reckon Max was lucky in Sochi, that evens out with the unlucky engine loss. But there's still a lot of bad luck left from the point los in Silverstone.

Saying Max's tire blow up was a team error is just twisting facts. It was clear Red Bull and Aston Martin did something different than other teams, but it wasn't something wrong or outside regulations. That's also why Pirelli changed tire specs instead of punishing Red Bull.
Blaming the team in this luck comparison seems like a desperate attempt to swing the favor towards Lewis.
So is not blaming Lewis for the brake magic. Mistakes are always unintentional, has nothing to do with bad luck. But even if you reckon it was bad luck (basically the error wouldn't have happened without Max his blow up) Max was more unlucky with the tire blow up. Without that, Max would probably have won, with Lewis in 3rd. Now both had zero points, so overall it's clear that Lewis was the lucky one here.

I hope you are not trying to even out Max's his supposed luck with Lewis his luck in Imola. Even if Max had lost it, (which he didn't because of his driving skills?), it would have lost him some positions at a restart, not full a lap at racing pace. Nowhere near comparable.


I will end this discussion from my side. You may still be convinced that luck has sort of evened out, and that's ok. But I don't agree.