Mr.S wrote: ↑01 Oct 2021, 19:18
AeroDynamic wrote: ↑01 Oct 2021, 16:02
Mr.S wrote: ↑01 Oct 2021, 05:39
I think of the remaining tracks -
Mexico & Brazil - RB
Saudi, USA & Turkey - Mercedes
Abu Dhabi & Qatar - 50-50
Mercedes has been quicker by a tenth of 2 on an average since British GP anyways ! So Hamilton has to be incredibly stupid to mess this up !
Mexico and Brazil should be comfortable wins, as the Mercedes engine just doesn’t produce as much output a sits supposed to in those altitudes, and circuit definitely comes to the red bull strengths.
Why are people convinced Turkey, Saudi and USA suit Mercedes more? They seem like 50-50 or maybe slightly leaning Mercedes more in Saudi and Turkey, but to the same degree that Mexico and Brazil suit the Red Bull? I still think the red bull is a better car a little bit, with Hungary being a set up anomaly.
Abu Dhabi and Qatar, I’d say Qatar should be the last track that suits Mercedes a lot, it’s high speed circuit and they’ve allocated the hardest tyre range for that one.
Abu Dhabi? They’re changed two sections of the track where red bull had an advantage but now those two sections are more flowing. It might lean to Mercedes a little more, but I think overall a 50-50 on balance
This championship is Max’s to lose though.
Saudi is a power track. It will be like Sochi, Mercedes to lose. Same as Mexico with RB.
Mercedes should have the advantage in Turkey, they have the best engine & do good in the faster corners & have the quicker car. Same with USA. I am not saying it will like Sochi Mercedes but Turkey & USA are lean Mercedes. Saudi,I think Likely Mercedes, Mexico Likely Mercedes. Brazil possibly between Lean to Likely, maybe Lean. Brazil is not Mexico but probably somewhere in between a Mercedes circuit & Mexico.
Abu Dhabhi is 50-50 IMO. Qatar possibly lean Mercedes.
Mercedes have the quicker car. Lewis has all the luck & is leading. This is his championship to lose.
I don’t think you’re correct about some of these things.
I don’t think Mercedes is the faster car. Lewis was a bit faster in Silverstone and Hungary but Max complained of understeer issues in qualifying at both tracks, they struggled with set up in those weekends. Since then, red bull has been performing optimally. Zandvoort for example, Mercedes were slower. Since Silverstone we’ve been at power tracks, that compliment low drag philosophy that Mercedes has, let’s see.
USA has a twisty and slow sector 3, and a maggots and Becketts remake in sector 2 which, at Silverstone, red bull found the most time in, and max barely missed out on pole there in 2019.
The red bull is better than their 2019 car but it now has an engine in the same ball park as the Mercedes, if not better. USA has some fast sections that compliment low drag but not to the degree of Sochi, Spa, or Monza. I think it will be 50-50 but the RB has the edge in general, just not in low drag circuits?
Turkey in theory should compliment Mercedes but there’s a lack of recent history to go on, last year red bull were better but that seemed to be down to conditions, tyre temps and the poor grip on the track. If we have a track in decent condition in Turkey, then perhaps we will get the real picture, and maybe like you say, Turkey will provide the edge to Mercedes. It does have a slow sector 3, so let’s see what red bull can make up with that time, they’re strong in this slow tangled sections.
I agree with Saudi, and I’m confident Qatar is going to be a strong one for Mercedes.
Abu Dhabi I can’t call. The two sectors they changed are slow bus stop like chicanes that red bull liked and now they are flowing corners, it might come to Mercedes more and make it harder for Red bull to make time with less slow sections.
As for luck, Lewis doesn’t have “all the luck” that’s really black and white.
Lewis had bad luck by accidentally hitting the magic button in Baku when he has to swerve away from Perez’s aggression on the restart. As much as Max was unlucky his tyre blew up, he was lucky he didn’t lose 25 pts to Lewis there as well.
Lewis was unlucky that a pit lane oversight by Mercedes in France, cost him track position when they pitted. They could’ve won that.
Was it lucky that lewis’ car suffered more than wear and tear in Austria, costing him 2nd place?
Is it lucky or unlucky, that the only track this year that gave competitors two rounds to bag points on, was Austria, a red bull circuit? 2 for the price at one. Would’ve been fair if Mercedes got two rounds at Sochi, no?
Max had some bad luck in Hungary for sure.
Silverstone and Monza were racing incidents, in those cases, max and Lewis gambled and rolled their own dice, max was unlucky twice, and Lewis once. But those aren’t the kind of lucks you point out because those incidents were in the drivers control, either could’ve yielded.
Since Hungary, everything has gone verstappen’s way when it comes to weather: we know Mercedes struggles with tyre temperature, so wet qualifying gives red bull the advantage, the weather has been kind to verstappen in Belgium, a free win without racing for it.
He was very lucky in Russia that the weather gifted him a second place opportunity after his grid drop, giving him a new engine without penalty in effect. He was on for 7th of 8th even because he spent his tyres desperately to get up the field.
So while I’d say verstappen has had less luck than Lewis, the luck hasn’t all gone lewis’ way, it’s evened out more as the season has progressed.
What about this whole season? We should be in 2022 with new cars. We are racing frozen cars pretty much, the new regs landed in favour of Max, it fell in his lap this year, and Mercedes were behind. Red Bull successfully pushed the FIA to ban engine modes because Honda didn’t have an answer for that. Let’s not forget the fortune that has come into red bulls arms this year.
If the regs weren’t changed 2 or 3 times throughout 2020 because of covid, then Mercedes would’ve maintained their development head start that they had earned from previous years. FIA changed the regs more than once and Mercedes had to start over, allowing red bull to have the same time frame to develop the 21 car pretty much.