I do not think that is "another thing". It is the W12 being a good car and the talk about luck for performance is nonsense. Hamilton so far needed luck to overcome bad strategic decisions and errors.atanatizante wrote: ↑07 Oct 2021, 13:41There is another thing we need to factor in to support here a new PU for HAM had we would have a wet race: RB16B is warming up the tyres quicker than W12 car can hence it has a higher rate of wearing and tearing for any wet weather tyre, as we could see that at Imola. Thus VER will need here at least a 2 stop race strategy if not a 3 one...ringo wrote: ↑06 Oct 2021, 18:07Max was a bit impatient and that lead to his tyres finishing. I do not think Lewis drives the same way. With consistent rain with everyone on the same tyre, I believe it is possible to win from the back once the leaders make mistakes, or they cover each other on a suboptimal strategy then a safety car happens. It is not as impossible as you would imagine. A podium is very easy in the rain from the back with LH driving. I don't recall any wet race that he has not won or podiumed regardless of how far he fell back. Even with the cars being close in performance in the dry; it's usually the case that some cars find the right tyre temps that leaves them 1s a lap faster in the same conditions. A mercedes driven by Lewis will find the podium position in 35 laps of running in the wet. Luck is needed of course, and I did not rule that out.El Scorchio wrote: ↑06 Oct 2021, 12:11
Agree, you'd need a great big slice of luck at the right time, similar to what Verstappen had in Sochi. You can't make up all that time on the front 4-5 cars starting from 20th without a few safety cars, or a red flag or some bizarre weather to do the same thing. Maybe in 2014 when the Mercedes was in a class of it's own, but not in 2021 when it's much more competitive.
Verstappen got through the positions nicely in the first stint but ate his tyres doing so. If anything he was going backwards until the perfect amount of rain (to make it not a slam dunk for everyone to immediately come in at once) came along at the perfect time to bail him out. (a few laps to go, so some in the points chanced their arm on slicks)
Not to say it wouldn't or couldn't happen, but it's very unlikely for those circumstances to occur.
LH needed luck to win this championship since winter testing. The car is inherently compromised and stuck in development. He needs luck and there is no shame in admitting that.
On the other side W12 has both warming up issues and it`s kinder with tyres. And bearing in mind the last year race and HAM`s ability to nurse the tyres he`ll need fewer pitstops for wet tyres than VER ... with one caveat, I`d say: he`ll need to start from the pit lane in order to have the best possible wet setup!
But I agree with you on the warming issues. The car last year was simply not competitive as long as the track was wet. Only once it really started to have dry lines, the W11 was the fastest car on track. Even Bottas had some good laps in which he did not spin and was close to fastest lap on inters in the end.
I disagree on the tire saving...Merc had good data from struggling Bottas who certainly used the tires a lot. They simply made a smart decisions based on the data and the only one who tried the same was a RP on wet setup...not really benchmark for exceptional tire saving. So Merc was also lucky in the point that some spun and some bottled the strategy with the second stop for inters that did not work in the end.
I therefore think an engine change with rain coming would be the worst thing to do. You end in non visibility, maybe a shortened race, red flags and even more tire warming issues in the traffic. This might even lead to a finish barely in top10. Much too much risk as we have tracks coming where you easily finish on P3 or P4 with an engine change.
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