Manoah2u wrote: ↑08 Nov 2021, 05:17
The big question now is going to be what happens at Brazil. Max now has a 19 point lead. If he manages to win Brazil, that's going to be a 26 point lead, 27 if Max also gets the sprint race win and lewis finishes P2 there, and neither will get fastest lap. if Max gets fastest lap too, that's 28 points lead - so Lewis will have to make up atleast 29 points in two races, 15 points in one and 14 points in the other.
that will prove nearly impossible to overcome as there will just be two races left and Lewis would need to WIN both the last GP's AND get both fastest laps, and max CAN NOT finish higher than P4, which is essentially impossible, and then Lewis will ONLY win by 1 point - which certainly will be denied to him by either tsunoda or gasly getting fresh tires at the last lap to make sure fastest lap is stolen from Lewis to then finish on equal points but thanks to his more race wins, Max will be WDC.
And to be fair, at this point, it's clear as day Bottas is NOT helping Lewis but helping Max, so not only is it impossible for Max to finish P4, Max will ALWAYS finish P2 in EVERY race to follow, since Perez will move away anyway.
The only way Lewis now is going to win the championship if is he wins EVERY GP. That will give him 7 points over Max each race, 1 point advantage over the sprint race, and as such will have him finish the last lap of the last race with a 3 point advantage.
Which, let's be fair, is likely NOT going to be enough to win the championship since Max can wheel in the fastest lap during those 3 races and then still be champion.
So atleast in 1 race Hamilton or Bottas MUST get fastest lap, or Stroll (Vettel won't play game i think) will have to be planned to get in a fastest lap in the last lap. It doesn't matter if he gets p10 or not, as he will simply have prevented a top-10 finisher gets fastest lap.
ONLY in that case Hamilton gets to win.
Problem imo is, Brazil is far more likely to be RB territory right now. And even then, even IF Hamilton manages Pole every race, the RB still has a pace advantage sufficient to beat the Mercs.
ONLY if Hamilton WINS Brazil's sprint AND main race, AND Max doesn't get fastest lap, he will have a chance.
BUT since friday will be WET, and QUALIFICATION for the sprint race will be on friday, that's going to be an easy pole for Max, so it'll be an easy P1 for Max at the sprint race, and thanks to that an easy win on sunday.
Even IF Max then gets a DNF @ the Qatar GP - unlikely to happen - he will still have atleast a 2 point lead to Lewis.
Which means if Hamilton finishes AHEAD of Max, Hamilton will win the championship but atleast has to finish 8th to do so.
If Max is in front of Hamilton, it's simply OVER and Max is WDC.
What i find unfair yet impressive in a certain way is that EVERYTHING is being done to steal Hamilton that 8th title away from him by EVERYBODY.
The fact Hamilton still is in contention is all the more remarkable.
because let's be fair here:
the FIA delibarately MESSED things up for the 2021 season for the sole purpose of spicing things up ARTIFICIALLY by (too) late announcing an unexpected and unfair change in the floor regulations for 2021, knowing fully well that this would hamper Mercedes (and Aston btw) the most, and the rest of the field practically not at all.
They essentially forced teams to go into high-rake design, and Mercedes is the opposite of that and can NOT alter this by any means.
so the FIA already played an unfair game to Hamilton (and Mercedes), knowing this would hugely benefit RB.
A rule change that makes no sense at all concidering 2022 will see completely different philosophy anyway.
Not just that, but not only is Hamilton then being handicapped by the FIA, he is also handicapped by his own teammate.
Bottas not only is NEVER THERE, to be a wedge between him and Max and as such 'steal points' from Max, whenever he IS there,
he doesnt even defend, he literally moves ASIDE time and time again to just let his rival breeze past. AND that same teammate was also being an extra #%$@ by trying to set the fastest lap for NO reason at all and steal an extremely valuable point from Lewis - his own teammate.
On top of that, when Max delibarately ran into him and parked his car on top of his head, he only got a minor grid penalty which was completely undone by changing engine and then being able to tool the car how they want to, and got rewarded with a p2 thanks to the rain at the end of the GP.
Finally, let's not forget, Lewis has been definately more fatigued than he ever was - probably still an aftermath from Covid last year - to the point he almost fainted at the podium and was heavily breathing at the end of the GP's at the first half of the season.
I do hope for a dominant win of Lewis in all Brazil sessions. Qually, Sprint race and main race AND a fastest lap. I don't see how that is going to happen, but i hope for it.
Again, that would reduce Max' lead by 9 points, and cut it down to a 10 point lead. That would keep the championship exciting. Likely that fastest lap point won't happen, so it would turn out into 11 point lead for Max.
If Lewis then wins the Qatar GP, Max will STILL have a 4 point lead. Would Lewis also grab fastest lap, that would be a 2 point lead.
In any case, it's unlikely at this point Hamilton will get his 8th title.
I would have been fully okay with that if the battle would have been fair, but the floor-cutting FIA trick simply doesn't make it fair and Max title will always be tainted.