2021 Cost Cap Rumours and Speculation

[mendis]

I read a good point on another forum, I will summerise

The penalty they have got is applied to the 3rd season after the office.
So they can overspend and gain in one year, that gain carrys on in multuple years but they are only penalised in one occurance.
The budget has not be changed either.

I don't understand the third year part. Penalty has already started. It means it affects RB19. In season development definitely hurts even if not the first few iterations of the development. Aero allocation reshuffle period is from July to June.

What would have happened if Red Bull would have created a dog like Mercedes and breached the cap? Would people have said they are carrying an advantage for multiple years? What would have happened if Mercedes also had an equally competitive car? Would we have said Red Bull are carrying advantage for multiple years?

[f1jcw]

I read a good point on another forum, I will summerise

The penalty they have got is applied to the 3rd season after the office.
So they can overspend and gain in one year, that gain carrys on in multuple years but they are only penalised in one occurance.
The budget has not be changed either.

I don't understand the third year part. Penalty has already started. It means it affects RB19. In season development definitely hurts even if not the first few iterations of the development. Aero allocation reshuffle period is from July to June.

What would have happened if Red Bull would have created a dog like Mercedes and breached the cap? Would people have said they are carrying an advantage for multiple years? What would have happened if Mercedes also had an equally competitive car? Would we have said Red Bull are carrying advantage for multiple years?

the foul was conducted in 2021
They have won, 2021 and 2022
Any penalty won't have any effect (if at all) till 2023

1 breech that can give them a multiyear advantage is only punished in 1 instance.

Maybe they would have created a dog like Mercedes if they had stuck to the spending limits like everyone else, this is where it gets smelly, they are benefiting from breaking the rules.

[littlebigcat]

Apparently a lot of the work for the 23 car is well finished and the upgrade path set.

The thing is, it’s a stable regulation, they already understand everything now it’s just a case of tweaking. Although it’s a decently sized punishment, they already have an advantage and it won’t cause much effect. And they keep they get to spend the money elsewhere.

[mwillems]

From 2005 to 2020, there has never been any scandal associated to RBR and I am 100% sure they didn't intend to be over the cap last year. It is not in their nature.

.
Wait, what? Constant pushing of flexy wings, blown diffusers, getting DQ for this? 2013 mid-season tyre change which, surprising to no one, aided Red Bull directly? Scandalous behaviour towards Renault as their engine supplier in 2014 and later?

They are successful because of their aggressive pushing of the rules and playing in the gray area and having a tedious TP with enough political backside to shove their rule breaking under the rug. That's how you win in F1, ask Mercedes.

.
Unbelievable what you write here as an impartial moderator!
I can't believe what I'm reading here from a moderator.
Impartial?

Vanja directly accused Mercedes of the same with the suggestion that RB is as bad as anyone, with the implicit suggestion that that is what everyone does in F1 to win.

The point made was not that RB are naughty and everyone is angels, but that everyone is naughty and RB, Ferrari and Merc (and the rest) are all alike.



But even after that, why can't they have an opinion on anything that sides with a team if that is what they felt??
Moderators aren't judges, they are here to make sure everyone plays nicely.

[dans79]

Pushing of the flexi wing limits is not breaking them and I can totally get behind their behaviour towards Renault.

Abu Dhabi 2014 says otherwise!
https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/30167902

Officials found a spring concealed in both sides of the wing that allowed two flaps to move downwards when at speed.

Red Bull design chief Adrian Newey said the part had been designed to flex but said all teams did the same thing.

[RonMexico]

Sounds like Red Bull have outsmarted the field.

They abused the rules and came out well on the other side. Pretty genius move.

By the looks of things Mercedes could have spent and extra $10m last year and would have ended up with an even bouncier car.

We just don't know, this all seems particularly petty and senseless.

Nice to not have people ragging on Ferrari for once though!

[DChemTech]

Pushing of the flexi wing limits is not breaking them and I can totally get behind their behaviour towards Renault.

Abu Dhabi 2014 says otherwise!
https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/30167902

Officials found a spring concealed in both sides of the wing that allowed two flaps to move downwards when at speed.

Red Bull design chief Adrian Newey said the part had been designed to flex but said all teams did the same thing.

Still, the FIA has prescribed limits to what is allowed in terms of flex tolerance, and as long as you are within that tolerance, you are not breaking any rules. Which was the case for RB until the FIA decided to change the tolerance rules in the middle of an active season, after political pressure from competitors. But yeah, there is another topic for that discussion.

[f1jcw]

Sounds like Red Bull have outsmarted the field.

They abused the rules and came out well on the other side. Pretty genius move.

and yet is is supposed to be a sport, not a competition to see who can get a upperhand by ignoring the rules and getting away with it.

[mendis]

I read a good point on another forum, I will summerise

The penalty they have got is applied to the 3rd season after the office.
So they can overspend and gain in one year, that gain carrys on in multuple years but they are only penalised in one occurance.
The budget has not be changed either.

I don't understand the third year part. Penalty has already started. It means it affects RB19. In season development definitely hurts even if not the first few iterations of the development. Aero allocation reshuffle period is from July to June.

What would have happened if Red Bull would have created a dog like Mercedes and breached the cap? Would people have said they are carrying an advantage for multiple years? What would have happened if Mercedes also had an equally competitive car? Would we have said Red Bull are carrying advantage for multiple years?

the foul was conducted in 2021
They have won, 2021 and 2022
Any penalty won't have any effect (if at all) till 2023

1 breech that can give them a multiyear advantage is only punished in 1 instance.

Maybe they would have created a dog like Mercedes if they had stuck to the spending limits like everyone else, this is where it gets smelly, they are benefiting from breaking the rules.

Your understanding is wrong regarding penalties.

[Mosin123]

I don't understand the third year part. Penalty has already started. It means it affects RB19. In season development definitely hurts even if not the first few iterations of the development. Aero allocation reshuffle period is from July to June.

What would have happened if Red Bull would have created a dog like Mercedes and breached the cap? Would people have said they are carrying an advantage for multiple years? What would have happened if Mercedes also had an equally competitive car? Would we have said Red Bull are carrying advantage for multiple years?

the foul was conducted in 2021
They have won, 2021 and 2022
Any penalty won't have any effect (if at all) till 2023

1 breech that can give them a multiyear advantage is only punished in 1 instance.

Maybe they would have created a dog like Mercedes if they had stuck to the spending limits like everyone else, this is where it gets smelly, they are benefiting from breaking the rules.

Your understanding is wrong regarding penalties.

they are not getting any penaltys that will affect last year or this year, that is my understanding any way, no wind tunnel time is going to hurt them for the last two races of this year, so really they have been allowed for a full year + to run a car that has benefitted from over spend for 2 seasons and a thrid with no real punishment other than a 7 mill fine which isnt going to bother them at all

[hollus]

If we are willing to accept that any potential advantage gained has a carry on to following years (which I think it has to some extent) then it follows that the disadvantage from the penalty is not a one time thing, but it will also carry on to following years, it won’t be just “a one time thing”.

[Mosin123]

If we are willing to accept that any potential advantage gained has a carry on to following years (which I think it has to some extent) then it follows that the disadvantage from the penalty is not a one time thing, but it will also carry on to following years, it won’t be just “a one time thing”.

Although you have a valid and a good point, i am sure Redbull wont mind switching the costs it will save on wind tunnel time into i dont know, lighter parts, the punishment has no bite imho, was well worth 7 mill for 3 - 5 easy titles they have / will get from it imho....

[dans79]

If we are willing to accept that any potential advantage gained has a carry on to following years (which I think it has to some extent) then it follows that the disadvantage from the penalty is not a one time thing, but it will also carry on to following years, it won’t be just “a one time thing”.

Although you have a valid and a good point, i am sure Redbull wont mind switching the costs it will save on wind tunnel time into i dont know, lighter parts, the punishment has no bite imho, was well worth 7 mill for 3 - 5 easy titles they have / will get from it imho....

Lighter parts don't mean anything if they can't meet the structural requirements of the rules, or if they don't last long because the are fragile. We also need to keep in mind, once a team reaches the minimum weight limit, the performance gains become exponentially less.

Reducing CFD and tunnel time, is imo more significant than most people think it is.

[Mosin123]

If we are willing to accept that any potential advantage gained has a carry on to following years (which I think it has to some extent) then it follows that the disadvantage from the penalty is not a one time thing, but it will also carry on to following years, it won’t be just “a one time thing”.

Although you have a valid and a good point, i am sure Redbull wont mind switching the costs it will save on wind tunnel time into i dont know, lighter parts, the punishment has no bite imho, was well worth 7 mill for 3 - 5 easy titles they have / will get from it imho....

Lighter parts don't mean anything if they can't meet the structural requirements of the rules, or if they don't last long because the are fragile. We also need to keep in mind, once a team reaches the minimum weight limit, the performance gains become exponentially less.

Reducing CFD and tunnel time, is imo more significant than most people think it is.

Not for a team who is one of the heaviest on the grid, Marko said losing 10 KG will give them around 0.3 ms, the 7 % time they have lost is meaningless in teh grand scale fo things, if it was that important the top teams would not have agreed to losing a % for finishing 1st in teh constructors. Bet if you gave them a choice 7 % wind tunnel time or an extra 10 KG strapped to the car they wont ask for the extra weight thats for sure.

[f1jcw]

If we are willing to accept that any potential advantage gained has a carry on to following years (which I think it has to some extent) then it follows that the disadvantage from the penalty is not a one time thing, but it will also carry on to following years, it won’t be just “a one time thing”.

If you had less development scope available. Would you choose the at the start of a new development era, or at the end of a development era when progress has already being made and you now all you have to do is upgrades.

I know what my answer would be.