2023 Mercedes-AMG | Petronas F1 Team

[organic]

yeah it seems they still have simulation/correlation issues .. So I cannot be confident about their ability to produce a consistent, non-diva W15. How can they reasonably predict the characteristics of the car they're developing if they cannot understand the W14 after 10+ rounds. Not trying to doom as I think if they do produce a car that they understand & add performance to then they'll progress rapidly.. it's just getting to that point that will be tricky.

[Just_a_fan]

when was the last time LH won a championship being 2 tenth behind the front?

When was the last time anyone won a championship in a slower car?

2021 is currently the latest year in which a driver in a non WCC winning car won the WDC.

Yes, but the car itself wasn't the slower of the two. Mercedes won the WDC because it had a better pair of drivers - Bottas did a better job than Perez.

[Just_a_fan]

when was the last time LH won a championship being 2 tenth behind the front?

When was the last time anyone won a championship in a slower car?

Arguably 1994…

Yeah, but "circumstances"...

[Just_a_fan]

Back to the topic please, everyone

Depending on how quickly the team can understand a different aero and mass distribution concept, it could be 2025 before they truly challenge for WCC & WDC again. They do seem to still have balance issues from week to week. Not the first time they have created a diva, there were at least two years in their great run of 8 WCC that they did so. On both occasions they still won the WCC (if not the WDC on one of those).
Somewhere in their simulation models there are still issues with correlation.

They are trying to race a Frankenstein car - the car is basically the W13 with different bodywork aft of the SIP wing.

I would expect their new "clean paper" design will be much better because they have 2 years of watching what works to fall back on. The W15 may not be quicker than the RB20, but I bet a single £5 note to your preferred charity that it will be closer to the RB20 than the W14 is to the RB19.

[chrisc90]

Back to the topic please, everyone

Depending on how quickly the team can understand a different aero and mass distribution concept, it could be 2025 before they truly challenge for WCC & WDC again. They do seem to still have balance issues from week to week. Not the first time they have created a diva, there were at least two years in their great run of 8 WCC that they did so. On both occasions they still won the WCC (if not the WDC on one of those).
Somewhere in their simulation models there are still issues with correlation.

They are trying to race a Frankenstein car - the car is basically the W13 with different bodywork aft of the SIP wing.

I would expect their new "clean paper" design will be much better because they have 2 years of watching what works to fall back on. The W15 may not be quicker than the RB20, but I bet a single £5 note to your preferred charity that it will be closer to the RB20 than the W14 is to the RB19.

I admire your optimism there.

Closer in what respect? Quali time? Race time? Gap over a season time?

[Luscion]

yeah it seems they still have simulation/correlation issues .. So I cannot be confident about their ability to produce a consistent, non-diva W15. How can they reasonably predict the characteristics of the car they're developing if they cannot understand the W14 after 10+ rounds. Not trying to doom as I think if they do produce a car that they understand & add performance to then they'll progress rapidly.. it's just getting to that point that will be tricky.

I think they understand the W14 for the most part, there are just fundamental issues with the car they would like to change but they cant because of the budget cap like the rear suspension and chassis because it was designed for zero pod. They had the issue with the scale of the models in the wind tunnel being wrong over the winter where the people responsible were fired but every upgrade they've brought this season has done what they expected it to which is a huge improvement over the W13. Maybe i'm wrong but the W13 and W14 seem to be diva's for different reasons, the w13, almost nothing they did to it would change it or make it faster in terms of upgrades. I remember multiple weekends where they would say they're finally understanding the W13 and then the next, left scratching their heads.While the W14 is a diva because its always on a knife's edge (on most tracks) and the drivers dont have to confidence to push the car to its limits which seems to come down to its lack of rear downforce. All that being said I still think it's going to be a challenged to close the gap to the RB20

[ringo]

when was the last time LH won a championship being 2 tenth behind the front?

When was the last time anyone won a championship in a slower car?

2021. Ok, not entirely fair maybe...but won.

Well that car was not the slower car over the season. And ignoring the ying yang and the outcome of the race. It is fair to say that judging the pace of the drivers in that final race. Hamilton did have a commanding lead. So it is a fair statement to say that a car can be slower on raw pace and still have a better race pace or management and win a championship. So again, I am not arguing, but looking on 2021 withouth the poor stewarding and dramas, it was anyone's guess who could win and the Merc had more weaknesses due to the floor edge ruling etc.

[ringo]

Being two tenths slower won’t cut it. Not when your operations are so far behind. Slower pit stops mean it’s impossible to undercut unless rbr is asleep at the wheel. Their lack of spontaneity and reliance on algorithms in making decisions will cost them strategy wise. Their drivers will take points off each other. The only way they can win is with a faster car, a clearly faster one. They might be able to win the constructors but not the drivers imho.

Okay a 2 tenths slower car comes second every race.. but it's partner comes third every race and Perez is 4th every race or retires. The championship would go to the slower car. If my maths are correct.

[organic]

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I think they understand the W14 for the most part, there are just fundamental issues with the car they would like to change but they cant because of the budget cap like the rear suspension and chassis because it was designed for zero pod. They had the issue with the scale of the models in the wind tunnel being wrong over the winter where the people responsible were fired but every upgrade they've brought this season has done what they expected it to which is a huge improvement over the W13. Maybe i'm wrong but the W13 and W14 seem to be diva's for different reasons, the w13, almost nothing they did to it would change it or make it faster in terms of upgrades. I remember multiple weekends where they would say they're finally understanding the W13 and then the next, left scratching their heads.While the W14 is a diva because its always on a knife's edge (on most tracks) and the drivers dont have to confidence to push the car to its limits which seems to come down to its lack of rear downforce.

Yes that sounds right. Simply writing both cars off as divas is reductive. They are divas for fundamentally different reasons

However a thing to add is that you still hear from people in the paddock that Merc would have little idea how their car will perform track to track relative to others as recently as the summer break. So it's not just the knife edge factor I think. Though maybe it is, since it's possible that instability is the main factor that is not easily accounted for causing those deviations from their simulations

Okay a 2 tenths slower car comes second every race.. but it's partner comes third every race and Perez is 4th every race or retires. The championship would go to the slower car. If my maths are correct.

Yes WCC would be pretty easy for Merc if they are 2 tenths slower on average than RB. 2021 with a worse driver lineup is precedent

[Just_a_fan]

Back to the topic please, everyone

Depending on how quickly the team can understand a different aero and mass distribution concept, it could be 2025 before they truly challenge for WCC & WDC again. They do seem to still have balance issues from week to week. Not the first time they have created a diva, there were at least two years in their great run of 8 WCC that they did so. On both occasions they still won the WCC (if not the WDC on one of those).
Somewhere in their simulation models there are still issues with correlation.

They are trying to race a Frankenstein car - the car is basically the W13 with different bodywork aft of the SIP wing.

I would expect their new "clean paper" design will be much better because they have 2 years of watching what works to fall back on. The W15 may not be quicker than the RB20, but I bet a single £5 note to your preferred charity that it will be closer to the RB20 than the W14 is to the RB19.

I admire your optimism there.

Closer in what respect? Quali time? Race time? Gap over a season time?

Why? Is no one other than RB able to make a quick car now?

As for closer, I would expect them to be closer in qualifying and race pace. No idea what "gap over a season time" is.

[Luscion]

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I think they understand the W14 for the most part, there are just fundamental issues with the car they would like to change but they cant because of the budget cap like the rear suspension and chassis because it was designed for zero pod. They had the issue with the scale of the models in the wind tunnel being wrong over the winter where the people responsible were fired but every upgrade they've brought this season has done what they expected it to which is a huge improvement over the W13. Maybe i'm wrong but the W13 and W14 seem to be diva's for different reasons, the w13, almost nothing they did to it would change it or make it faster in terms of upgrades. I remember multiple weekends where they would say they're finally understanding the W13 and then the next, left scratching their heads.While the W14 is a diva because its always on a knife's edge (on most tracks) and the drivers dont have to confidence to push the car to its limits which seems to come down to its lack of rear downforce.

Yes that sounds right. Simply writing both cars off as divas is reductive. They are divas for fundamentally different reasons

However a thing to add is that you still hear from people in the paddock that Merc would have little idea how their car will perform track to track relative to others as recently as the summer break. So it's not just the knife edge factor I think. Though maybe it is, since it's possible that instability is the main factor that is not easily accounted for causing those deviations from their simulations

Okay a 2 tenths slower car comes second every race.. but it's partner comes third every race and Perez is 4th every race or retires. The championship would go to the slower car. If my maths are correct.

Yes WCC would be pretty easy for Merc if they are 2 tenths slower on average than RB. 2021 with a worse driver lineup is precedent

Ah didn't hear about that, maybe they do have some issues still but it is a whole lot better than last year, I'm interested to see what issues their COTA upgrades address

[AR3-GP]

Ah didn't hear about that, maybe they do have some issues still but it is a whole lot better than last year, I'm interested to see what issues their COTA upgrades address

To me it somehow feels worse than last year. Towards the end of the season last year Merc was clear 2nd quickest in race trim and it culminated in a win in Brazil. They have to be measured against the opposition and the opposition has now leapfrogged them. Aston in the first part of the year, and Mclaren/Ferrari in the second part of the year. Mercedes has rarely been the fastest Mercedes engined team this season.

[Luscion]

Ah didn't hear about that, maybe they do have some issues still but it is a whole lot better than last year, I'm interested to see what issues their COTA upgrades address

To me it somehow feels worse than last year. Towards the end of the season last year Merc was clear 2nd quickest in race trim and it culminated in a win in Brazil. They have to be measured against the opposition and the opposition has now leapfrogged them. Aston in the first part of the year, and Mclaren/Ferrari in the second part of the year. Mercedes has rarely been the fastest Mercedes engined team this season.

I meant in terms of correlation and their upgrades working, i agree they got out developed during the winter by Aston and now during the season by Mclaren so far but merc are also working with a frankenstein car where the chassis is so much different to those around them, i think if they had a more conventional car like AM they would be in a much better position. I think they'll be strong in Mexico and Brazil this year as they run max downforce there and Merc has been strong on that setup, plus the high altitudes should help with their drag issues.

[ringo]

Ah didn't hear about that, maybe they do have some issues still but it is a whole lot better than last year, I'm interested to see what issues their COTA upgrades address

Just what if COTA upgrades work better than expected?
Would we see a Mclaren like boost in pace. It could happen. Which would change the complexion of what can be expected next year.

[pursue_one's]

Ah didn't hear about that, maybe they do have some issues still but it is a whole lot better than last year, I'm interested to see what issues their COTA upgrades address

Just what if COTA upgrades work better than expected?
Would we see a Mclaren like boost in pace. It could happen. Which would change the complexion of what can be expected next year.

There are rumors about new spec for floor at Austin.
That would probably be a small intervention.