2025 f1 predictions

[SirBastianVettel]

I run a mathematical model that predicts which driver will score more points. Here are the predictions for the (non-rookie) team mate match ups in 2025.

Lead driver
Norris, 56% of McLaren’s points
Leclerc, 59% of Ferrari’s points
Verstappen, 58% of Red Bull’s points
Alonso, 75% of Aston Martin’s points
Sainz, 77% of Williams’ points

There’s also some predictions on the expected relative points of rookie drivers.
You can see the full predictions here:
https://f1-analysis.com/2025/01/31/2025 ... edictions/

I'd be amazed if Verstappen only scores 58% of Red Bull's points. How did it came up with that number?

[dren]

I run a mathematical model that predicts which driver will score more points. Here are the predictions for the (non-rookie) team mate match ups in 2025.

Lead driver
Norris, 56% of McLaren’s points
Leclerc, 59% of Ferrari’s points
Verstappen, 58% of Red Bull’s points
Alonso, 75% of Aston Martin’s points
Sainz, 77% of Williams’ points

There’s also some predictions on the expected relative points of rookie drivers.
You can see the full predictions here:
https://f1-analysis.com/2025/01/31/2025 ... edictions/

I'd be amazed if Verstappen only scores 58% of Red Bull's points. How did it came up with that number?

Max scored 74% of the team's points last year. I don't think Lawson is going to fair much better than Perez.

[f1isgood]

Lando Norris for the title, McLaren for the WCC.

They have everything going for them. Team on an upward curve. Plenty more wind tunnel time than Red Bull ever had since 2020 ended, generally getting better staff than the other teams that have been losing staff.

[Sphere3758]

WDC:
1. Charles
2. Max
3. Lewis

WCC:
1. Ferrari
2. McLaren
3. Redbull

[pantherxxx]

The fact that Red Bull still dominated in 2023 and won the 2024 Drivers' Championship despite having the least wind tunnel time proves that their engineering department is superior. Red Bull was already outperforming their limited resources in 2023 and 2024. Now that they gain wind tunnel time while McLaren loses it, they have a strong chance to fight back and regain dominance in 2025. Unless another team massively overachieves, Red Bull should be the favorites again. Max Verstappen brings an additional unbeatable edge to Red Bull.

[Seanspeed]

The fact that Red Bull still dominated in 2023 and won the 2024 Drivers' Championship despite having the least wind tunnel time proves that their engineering department is superior. Red Bull was already outperforming their limited resources in 2023 and 2024. Now that they gain wind tunnel time while McLaren loses it, they have a strong chance to fight back and regain dominance in 2025. Unless another team massively overachieves, Red Bull should be the favorites again. Max Verstappen brings an additional unbeatable edge to Red Bull.

Red Bull ignored Newey's warning that the fundamental base of the RB20 was flawed in terms of development potential, and then as soon as he leaves, the RB20 falls behind in competitiveness for the rest of the year, with the team going from a dominant fastest car to clear 2nd best by midseason, and then 3rd best by the last third of the season.

In no world should a post-Newey Red Bull engineering and design team be considered favorites for 2025. I know we're just making predictions here, but that just seems like a wild one to me. Max himself might well go down as one of the best to ever do it, but he alone cannot overcome any kind of significant car deficit over such a long season with such reliable cars.

I think if there's any dark horse for 2025, it'll be Mercedes. While there's no strong evidence they've got themselves sorted, they've still got a level of modern pedigree and recent wins to suggest there's still something going right in their car design, if they can only figure out how to unlock it properly.

[Vinyl Lap]

I've been saying since the latter stages of last season that my favourite for this season is Oscar Piastri. He's unassuming, determined, and very quick. All he needs to do is iron out his consistency, and I'm adamant he'll cream Lando. Now I'd absolutely love Lando to be Champion, but Piastri honestly reminds me of Mika Hakkinen in the mid-90s.

I also still think there will eventually be tension in the Ferrari camp when they begin to rack up victories. Hamilton and Leclerc could turn into a Hamilton/Rosberg, Vettel/Webber situation unless Hamilton has mellowed and is happy to support Leclerc. But we all know he's eager for his 8th title, while Leclerc will feel comfortable and assured as he essentially ousted Vettel as the Scuderia's top dog.

As for Mercedes, I feel Antonelli could ruffle a few feathers and you could end up with a Hamilton/Alonso 2007 repeat. Again Russell has come through the ranks and will now feel he has the team under his thumb, but if Antonelli proves consistently quick, we know Russell can get a bit stroppy.

Red Bull will be the usual contenders and probably the real threat to McLaren and Piastri/Norris I feel. Yes, they've lost Newey, but I think for 2025 at least they will stay near the top. Plus they are the only team at the top with a clear number-one driver, similar to the Schumacher era at Ferrari. Lawson will be expected to finish just behind Verstappen at every available opportunity and pick up wins only when and if Verstappen retires or has a bad day. Whether he can achieve that remains to be seen, as many accomplished drivers have been and gone in that role.

So for 2025, I think it will be:

1) Piastri
2) Verstappen
3) Norris

1) McLaren
2) Ferrari
3) Red Bull

[dren]

Kimi Raikkonen will forever be the last Ferrari WDC. Given there will be a lot of competition at the top, I expect Max to make the best of it and win in the end. I think Lando needs a dominant car to win the WDC, or at least a car much more dominant than whatever Max is driving.

[SharkY]

Let's play a fortune-teller.
Given, how the previous season ended, I hope for a highly competetive 2025, with different track-weather conditions suiting better different cars.
In that case my bet is that there is a classical fight od MCL vs FER, but this time with Max in the mix. Post Newey RBR lacks a bit to the top 2 cars, but Max makes a difference. HAM has a slow start, so that he's not a WDC contender, but when he gets up to speed, he takes some points away from LEC in mid season, until Vasseur makes Charles a no.1. On the other hand, PIA sorts out his consistency issues and also takes points from NOR, so that Zak again has to make Lando no.1, but this time they don't hesitate for so long.
I expect there to be 7 race winners (1 oddball like Gasly). RUS wins twice but Mercedes lacks in overall pace. ANT has a lot of heated fights with LAW, that end up in several crashes.
AMR is P5 in WCC, but this time HAS and WIL are much closer. I don't believe in ALP rebirth, but they have a lucky great race, which gives them a hope for P6. TSU regularly gets in the midfield mix, but HAD lacks pace. Sauber trails behind again, eventhough HUL has quite a few surprising quali results.
WDC:
LEC
NOR
VER
(these 3 seperated by 40 pts, but it's decided in penultimate race)
PIA
HAM
RUS
ANT
LAW

WCC:
MCL
FER
RBR
MER
AMR
WIL
HAS
ALP
VRB
SAU

[jumpingfish]

I would like to see Ferrari in 4th place in the WCC after the first half of 2025 but with a minimal points gap to the first place (McLaren), about 15 points. This will give Ferrari a little more time in WT & CFD to develop the SF-26 after summer break. And at the end of the year, Leclerc and the team should take both titles.

WCC before summer break:
McLaren
Mercedes
RB
Ferrari

End of the season:
Ferrari
McLaren
Mercedes
RB

[LM10]

It’s finally going to be the year of Ferrari.

WCC:
Ferrari
McLaren
Mercedes
RBR

WDC:
Leclerc
Norris
Hamilton
Max
Russell
Piastri

Wishful thinking from my side? Maybe a little.
But I genuinely predict a very strong Ferrari team this year, in all aspects.

[dren]

A WCC is definitely in the making for Ferrari, but I think Max still pulls off the WDC.

[SirBastianVettel]

How do people feel about their predictions after (almost) one day of testing?

[stephen]

WDC:
1. Max
2. Charles
3. Oscar
4. Lando

WCC:
1. McLaren
2. Ferrari
3. Redbull
4. Mercedes

[Fred]

I run a mathematical model that predicts which driver will score more points. Here are the predictions for the (non-rookie) team mate match ups in 2025.

Lead driver
Norris, 56% of McLaren’s points
Leclerc, 59% of Ferrari’s points
Verstappen, 58% of Red Bull’s points
Alonso, 75% of Aston Martin’s points
Sainz, 77% of Williams’ points

There’s also some predictions on the expected relative points of rookie drivers.
You can see the full predictions here:
https://f1-analysis.com/2025/01/31/2025 ... edictions/

I'd be amazed if Verstappen only scores 58% of Red Bull's points. How did it came up with that number?

If Max scores 400 points, it’d be predicting Lawson to get 280. That doesn’t seem to unrealistic to me. 58% mightn’t seem like a massive lead, but it’s quite significant. Hamilton’s average over Bottas during their whole time as teammates was roughly the same for reference. I don’t think Lawson is going to struggle anywhere near as much as Perez has who, after his first year at Red Bull (where he was still significantly off the pace), has been abysmal.