2025 Oracle Red Bull Racing F1 Team

[Wouter]

Saturday it is raining the whole day. Sunday dry.

[euv2]

I think a dry race will be very favorable for McLaren but a win for Max cannot be ruled out even in a dry race. The car was good in long radius corners in Austin. It won't be easy but it's not impossible. Indeed, I am assuming that the car won't be as bad as it was in Mexico. Hope the cooling requirements and downforce levels can support the car.

Sprint weekend is the bigger issue. No time to get the car in a good working window. It will be rushed. So it will be tricky to nail the setup.

Yeah, Cota sector 3 performance was very strong, esp. in the race. If the new floor generates more load as it's supposed to, it could push Max above the McLarens. Rain brings too much luck into play, a Stroll like incident with red flags in qualy could destroy the weekend. Of course, it also increases the chances of a big point swing but if the floor works, I'd take a dry weekend but that's looking unlikely with rain forecasted for qualy.

In Mexico, Helmut apparently said they didn’t have time to make the changes necessary to make the car quick, so I'm assuming the numbers they saw from the new floor were good but they didn't get time to sort everything out.



There also this photo of them working on the floor edge, might lead to some credence the Helmuts quote.

[Vettel165]

A copy-paste of 2024 results would do nicely...

[Badger]

Yeah, Cota sector 3 performance was very strong, esp. in the race. If the new floor generates more load as it's supposed to, it could push Max above the McLarens. Rain brings too much luck into play, a Stroll like incident with red flags in qualy could destroy the weekend. Of course, it also increases the chances of a big point swing but if the floor works, I'd take a dry weekend but that's looking unlikely with rain forecasted for qualy.

Max needs big point swings so anything that increases the chance of that (like rain) is good for him. It's not a guarantee of anything, but it creates opportunities.

Rain looks most likely for Friday actually, with potential for some drizzle on Saturday. Crucially Sunday looks to be quite cold and overcast.

[Emag]

Yeah, Cota sector 3 performance was very strong, esp. in the race. If the new floor generates more load as it's supposed to, it could push Max above the McLarens. Rain brings too much luck into play, a Stroll like incident with red flags in qualy could destroy the weekend. Of course, it also increases the chances of a big point swing but if the floor works, I'd take a dry weekend but that's looking unlikely with rain forecasted for qualy.

Max needs big point swings so anything that increases the chance of that (like rain) is good for him. It's not a guarantee of anything, but it creates opportunities.

Rain looks most likely for Friday actually, with potential for some drizzle on Saturday. Crucially Sunday looks to be quite cold and overcast.

If it's dry and cold then qualifying will be super important. They need to get on top of whatever issues they had in Mexico because Max will need the front row at the very least for best chances to win here.

[AR3-GP]

With exception of Hungary (Mclaren stuffing Piastri), I don't think anyone has won a race from off the front row this year.

[rbirules]

With exception of Hungary (Mclaren stuffing Piastri), I don't think anyone has won a race from off the front row this year.

Oscar won from 4th in Miami, and Lando won from 3rd at Silverstone.

[Emag]

With exception of Hungary (Mclaren stuffing Piastri), I don't think anyone has won a race from off the front row this year.

Combination of McLaren being overpowered for most of the season and the racing being pure sh*t with these cars this final year of these regulations, but yeah I meant it more in contrast to a wet Brazil, which Max can win it from anywhere assuming chaos works out in his favor.

A dry race removes some variability and you’re back to the season’s norm. Would be interesting to see if they keep the Mexico floor or not though.

[euv2]

With exception of Hungary (Mclaren stuffing Piastri), I don't think anyone has won a race from off the front row this year.

Combination of McLaren being overpowered for most of the season and the racing being pure sh*t with these cars this final year of these regulations, but yeah I meant it more in contrast to a wet Brazil, which Max can win it from anywhere assuming chaos works out in his favor.

A dry race removes some variability and you’re back to the season’s norm. Would be interesting to see if they keep the Mexico floor or not though.

Whatever floor they use in FP1 is the one they'll stick with for the week, I think. I don't think they'll try to switch floors without data from Max on both.

[Paa]

Yeah, Cota sector 3 performance was very strong, esp. in the race. If the new floor generates more load as it's supposed to, it could push Max above the McLarens. Rain brings too much luck into play, a Stroll like incident with red flags in qualy could destroy the weekend. Of course, it also increases the chances of a big point swing but if the floor works, I'd take a dry weekend but that's looking unlikely with rain forecasted for qualy.

Max needs big point swings so anything that increases the chance of that (like rain) is good for him. It's not a guarantee of anything, but it creates opportunities.

Rain looks most likely for Friday actually, with potential for some drizzle on Saturday. Crucially Sunday looks to be quite cold and overcast.

Friday rain would be the worst as they need data to set up the car.

[AR3-GP]

Yeah, Cota sector 3 performance was very strong, esp. in the race. If the new floor generates more load as it's supposed to, it could push Max above the McLarens. Rain brings too much luck into play, a Stroll like incident with red flags in qualy could destroy the weekend. Of course, it also increases the chances of a big point swing but if the floor works, I'd take a dry weekend but that's looking unlikely with rain forecasted for qualy.

Max needs big point swings so anything that increases the chance of that (like rain) is good for him. It's not a guarantee of anything, but it creates opportunities.

Rain looks most likely for Friday actually, with potential for some drizzle on Saturday. Crucially Sunday looks to be quite cold and overcast.

Friday rain would be the worst as they need data to set up the car.

So does everyone else.

[Paa]

So does everyone else.

You are technically right, but still the sentiment is that RedBull needs more time/data to find the sweetspot compared to others, especially with their new floor. So losing time can potentially be more harmful for RedBull, than others.

Similarly the sentiment is that Max is very good in rain, so a Sunday rain can benefit him more vs the competitors.

Neither is necessarily true, but this is the general expectation. So based on this Sunday rain is better Max,.while Friday rain is worse.

[Badger]

I'm really not too concerned about rain either way, Max looked pretty good in the dry sprint last year. What would be nice to avoid is another scorching hot race like the last two rounds. Cloudy and cool with the odd shower will make the competitive picture a lot more interesting across the board.

[napoleon1981]

So does everyone else.

You are technically right, but still the sentiment is that RedBull needs more time/data to find the sweetspot compared to others, especially with their new floor. So losing time can potentially be more harmful for RedBull, than others.

Similarly the sentiment is that Max is very good in rain, so a Sunday rain can benefit him more vs the competitors.

Neither is necessarily true, but this is the general expectation. So based on this Sunday rain is better Max,.while Friday rain is worse.

The strange part is that sprint weekend results dont fit that narrative.

[euv2]

Latest forecast:
Practice 1: 0%
Sprint Qualifying: 30%
Sprint Race: 50%
Qualifying: 40%
Race: 20%

Saturday is still low confidence.