Post here all non technical related topics about Formula One. This includes race results, discussions, testing analysis etc. TV coverage and other personal questions should be in Off topic chat.
Not a bad guess. He just underestimated the differences of the 2014 engines but mostly got the pecking order correct on both the chassi and engine side.
It's hard to say if 2026 will be a repeat of 2014 when it comes to the engine. There was really nothing magical about Mercedes' success, they just started earlier and invested more money before 2014. This time around I feel like the other manufacturers will not be caught out as easily, at least not to the same extent as 2014. The newcomers are a question mark.
Well, I think this IS still "a" and the same difference:
- Honda started late. Was out of F1, really started new towards end 22. No one can tell me, that they spend millions on developing the next F1 zylinder while being out.
- Audi started half a year earlier than Honda with their new factory. Still not early and no previous F1 V6.
- RBPT started very late, serious engine developments started in 2023! No one knows if any knowledge from Honda was transferred.
- Merc and Ferrari are all-in since mid 2021, since they know 1.6l V6 without MGUH and especially Merc had a substantial ICE dev program in 2021 of which they still profit today in F1. Hamilton did not go to Ferrari to get a second best engine...this move is still telling.
So, I would be very surprised if we see anything else but Merc and Ferrari upfront.
A lot of untrue statements in your post.
Most important one is on RBPT. They fired up their first 6-cilinder on August 3, 2022 already. In 2021 they already had 197 people being part of RBPT of which 123 in design.
No, my 2023 may be too late, but the numbers you digged up from Racer are just not making sense in this regards.
First of all it is not a number for early 2021 and includes all transferred Honda personal which was mainly there for the E machine. Furthermore in 2021 RBPT was mainly working on getting the 2022 ICE ready on the E10 fuel, as they got the new test facilities, that Honda did not buy because of their exit...add this to the list for Honda above.
The big hiring (220 from Merc) happened in 2022, making them still only half of the employees at HPP.
Whatever they fired up in mid 22 was legacy tech and/or not developed by the main team they hired from Merc. I would bet that was not more than a modified Honda without MGU-H.
But going more into the pecking order, this discussion may fit more to the engine thread:
I think the ICE will be the defining factor. I wonder if anyone (private, not the teams) simulated the 2026 car on a sim and did report on this. From the numbers I would expect that at least the race will be super energy limited with heavy lift and coast like in Indy.
So any percent of ICE efficiency goes directly into the pecking order.
Not only ICE efficiency, but total efficiency. It's going to be a contest about Performance/kWh as there is only so much energy you can get out of a set amount of fuel. While you can make some inroads from further increasing the ICE efficiency, there might be a lot more to harvest and to not loose from drag and having to accelerate more (I. e. cornering faster).
That is going to be a beautifully complex trade off and a pleasure to see how all those gemious minds might tackle this in oh so tiny different ways.
Regarding Brembo I agree with you, as everyone gets a tailored solution.
But regarding Pirelli... everyone will get the same, so lots of Shenanigans at play.
For example, you could enter significantly overestimated downforce levels in the hope of everyone getting too hard tires, for which you coincidentally design your suspension to work them hard enough.
Regarding Brembo I agree with you, as everyone gets a tailored solution.
But regarding Pirelli... everyone will get the same, so lots of Shenanigans at play.
For example, you could enter significantly overestimated downforce levels in the hope of everyone getting too hard tires, for which you coincidentally design your suspension to work them hard enough.
This wouldnt be a viable strategy for a few reasons. By now, Pirelli will have a very good dataset of values submitted preseason and how they correlate to actual performance. One data point will always be treated as an outlier. If other teams are actually approaching those downforce levels, then you are in more trouble anyway.
Designing a core component of your car like the suspension based on misdirection which is unlikely to work also doesn't seem wise. Pirelli can be a lot more flexible with its compound choices than a team can with how its suspension works from race to race and throughout the season.
Regarding Brembo I agree with you, as everyone gets a tailored solution.
But regarding Pirelli... everyone will get the same, so lots of Shenanigans at play.
For example, you could enter significantly overestimated downforce levels in the hope of everyone getting too hard tires, for which you coincidentally design your suspension to work them hard enough.
Agree. Brakes makes sense but I bet a lot of info to Pirelli is all over the place. We did hear that some teams are running larger brake set-ups than others suggesting some will be relying on braking more with the K than others.
Ok so my order is very different to a lot of these predictions; but I first want to explain why and justify.
Firstly some “guiding principles” -
This is the first time ever really that the Chassis and Power Unit regulations have changed simultaneously, and this of course has the potential to mix up the grid in possibly the most severe way we may see for a while. Some teams might be really well prepared for this but through bad luck end up chasing the “wrong” solution in terms of both pace and development opportunities. It will also of course mean that there will be a lot of flex with the pecking order throughout the season, and different cars will suit different tracks. So as you may imagine there is quite a bit of chance with this; and at this stage it’s so hard to make a prediction. Nevertheless …
There are actually three things to consider when it comes to the final “product” itself - chassis, power unit and fuel. I think people are clued up on the first two, but the new sustainable fuel will be a performance differentiator between the teams. Five different companies will provide fuel, for their respective engine partner. Petronas - Mercedes, Shell - Ferrari, Esso / Mobil 1 - Red Bull Ford, BP / Castrol - Audi and Aramco / Valvoline - Honda. Out of these only Aramco is new; BP previously supplied Renault engines. You would imagine that the existing fuel providers would have an advantage over the new one, especially those that have pursued this sort of technology previously. Binotto has said that he’s impressed with the BP fuel, ditto Mercedes with Petronas; I genuinely have not heard anything from the other teams.
There is of course also, the aerodynamic restrictions to take into account as well as the cost cap. For 2022, some of this was in place but the sliding scale it has been adjusted more so in favour of the smaller teams. Sauber have been allowed to have a higher cost cap, to account for cost of living in Switzerland compared to the UK. The medium and longer term effects of the cost cap have begun to show, with a lot of medium management engineers moving to smaller teams or even out of the sport in order to get a higher salary. Several of the smaller teams (Williams, Aston Martin, Audi) have been allowed to have increased spending on capital expenditure in order to match the facilities of the top teams. Compared to 2014 with the engines, for the first time there is a cost cap on development; so you’re more unlikely to end up in a 2014 situation where Mercedes were massively ahead, in part, because they spent much more money than the other manufactures. There’s also the point that somewhere in 2016, it became illegal for an engine supplier to favour their works team, through better engine modes and parts etc - I think this more so shows that particularly with Mercedes, it is very possible that a customer is faster than them out of the blocks. I think all of this highlights how turbulent the order could be, there is a genuine chance that 5 or 6 of the teams could be the pace setter by Australia.
This is my order of car performance based on a mixture of evidence and gut feeling:
- This is not a championship order prediction as obviously some teams have better drivers and are just better operationally to capitalise on a good car. I also think it will change quite a bit. I’ll reveal the next three teams tomorrow.
1. Mercedes.
- Why? Engineering stability, proven capabilities of getting the powertrain right (2014), manufacturer team so benefit in designing the engine for the car and vice versa, low wind tunnel and CFD time BUT I think despite this they can produce something impressive.
2. Williams
- Ok so this is the first surprise option I have. Since 2021, Williams have invested massively into Grove - they now have a headcount of around 1,000 so just slightly less than the big teams, capex spending as well. They’ve had a lot of wind tunnel / CFD time and started developing the 26’ car very early. They take not just Mercedes engines, but also transmission and hydraulics systems, so they’ll benefit from Mercedes work and also get an insight into their rear suspension. Williams took on a lot of engineering talent in the summer of 24’ (Matt Harman, Angelos Tsipiras, Juan Molina, Fabrice Moncade, Richard Frith, Steve Winstanley) and this whilst not really having an impact in 25’ will show up next year. Harman in particular was the guy who’s team came up with the split turbo - compressor systems that was one of the key reasons for Merc’s dominance from 14 - 16; he’ll know how to engineer the car seamlessly with the PU. This is a bit of a wild shot and I don’t think they’ll be able to develop the car as much as other teams, but I genuinely think a very strong season is on the cards.
3. McLaren
- McLaren are coming off the back of a super successful spell, having mastered the ability to make a stable car aerodynamically in these ground effect regulations. There new wind tunnel has helped with this, as has an engineering super team and excellent leadership from Andrea Stella. Now because they finished 1st in the constructors at the mid point of this year and last year; they have the least amount of wind tunnel / CFD time out of any of the teams. This is coupled with the fact that they did develop this years car (not massively) in order to secure a first in a generation drivers title. I think McLaren could easily be no1 by the end of the season - especially as they’ll have the Merc powertrain (with their own transmission) I just think that it might take a little while for them to get the ball rolling as the two other teams have some structural advantages at the start.
Let me know what you guys think, and the next part will prob be the “controversial” bit as I have much higher expectations from one team and much lower from another that people are rating highly on here.
