2026 pecking order speculation

[Jambier]

Owning the full integration loop will be more important in 2026 than at any point since the sport went to turbo-hybrids in 2014 — and probably since the late 1990s works-team era.

Agreed.
Peak performance of engines, no big differences, but integration and usage yes, and of course aero and weight of the car (we don't speak about that enough)

That's why I think Mercedes, Ferrari, Aston and RB (if they don't fail the engine, especially Ford TBH) are the ones that can do something right and are favorites

[peewon]

ADUO has been there from the start. Your initial point has no merit.

Well that literally has nothing but a heading. They left a provision for a feature like that but did not define it any way shape or form until the latest guideline updates.

Just compare to the latest

https://i.postimg.cc/s23XHtwH/Untitled.png

https://i.postimg.cc/mgYkwbNK/Untitled1.png

[Badger]

ADUO has been there from the start. Your initial point has no merit.

Well that literally has nothing but a heading. They left a provision for a feature like that but did not define it any way shape or form until the latest guideline updates.

Just compare to the latest

https://i.postimg.cc/s23XHtwH/Untitled.png

https://i.postimg.cc/mgYkwbNK/Untitled1.png

A heading you said wasn't there until the "11th hour", that's false. The idea has been there from the start and it hasn't changed meaningfully. Extra dyno time and in season upgrades for teams that are behind. Initially they suggested a 3% power deficit, now it's a dual threshold of 2% and 4%. That is about the only real change and it's not a fundamental one.

[Alo_Fan]

Lots of optimism for Aston Martin, but when was the last time a team went from 7th on the grid to 1st? Even counting for Newey and boat loads of extra Wind tunnel and CFD runs, seems like huge gap to overcome. I think we needed to see more from 25.

With new regs anything is possible, look at Honda to Brawn in 2009.

Red Bull weren't very high up either in 2008. I think they were beaten by Torro Rosso into 7th or 8th. In 2009 they were fighting for the title.

I don't see AM winning the WCC, but it's entirely possible they win a few races.

But the new regs in that case were in 2009, which is similar to what is happening in 2026, I could see something similar to 2009, where AMR start on the back foot a bit and towards the end have the best package.

[Alo_Fan]

Lots of optimism for Aston Martin, but when was the last time a team went from 7th on the grid to 1st? Even counting for Newey and boat loads of extra Wind tunnel and CFD runs, seems like huge gap to overcome. I think we needed to see more from 25.

With new regs anything is possible, look at Honda to Brawn in 2009.

If you looked more into the background of what was happening back then politically between Bernie, Mosley and the big teams, it seems fairly likely that double diffuser would not have passed legality under normal circumstances. So it was an exceptional scenario.

There's always a chance Newey finds a loophole this time around too.

[peewon]

With new regs anything is possible, look at Honda to Brawn in 2009.

If you looked more into the background of what was happening back then politically between Bernie, Mosley and the big teams, it seems fairly likely that double diffuser would not have passed legality under normal circumstances. So it was an exceptional scenario.

There's always a chance Newey finds a loophole this time around too.

But the FIA only allows the loophole if they want the team/driver benefitting from it to win. If they dont, they ban it within 2-3 races. Thats the problem. They allowed double diffuser because they were fighting with McLaren and Ferrari at the time.

[Emag]

People always tend to point to 2009 about the potential of fairytale stories, but 2009 is literally the outlier. What Brawn did is likely to never happen in the sport again. There was a weird set of circumstances that allowed for it to turn out that way. People are also generally wrong about the reasons why Brawn was so dominant early 2009 too. The double diffuser is a contributing factor, but it wasn't really the only or the main thing that made the car so fast. Toyota and Williams both found the loophole too, but they weren't nearly as quick.

The reason why Brawn was so much faster is because Brawn had inherited a car that was "overdeveloped" by Honda for 2009. They had poured a lot of resources into it by sacrificing their budgets for 2007 & 2008 and allocating it to the 2009 new rules to get ahead of the curve (alike to what Mercedes did for 2014). On top of that, I think it's likely the car turned out faster than it would have been with Honda, even with the botched engine integration by Brawn, just because Mercedes offered a much cleaner drive and better traction out of slow corners (which was kind of critical for 2009 cars actually).

In short, it was just a very well designed car from front to rear, it wasn't a single-trick wonder. Many people tend to overlook Brawn's front wing as well. You can go ahead and look at the launch specs of the 2009 cars and notice how different Brawn was in that department. Many had picked up on the idea of using outwash for tire wake management, but nobody had managed to come up with as an extreme of an implementation as Brawn (Honda). They were literally ahead of all other teams development-wise because Honda started working on it way before the others. It is why they could afford to stop developing the car and still win both titles, even though the rest caught up with them from the 2nd half and onwards.

Other than 2009, you probably have to go back many years to find a regulation change that didn't maintain the same top 3-4 teams fighting for the top positions. At most jumbling up the order between them.

[Farnborough]

If you looked more into the background of what was happening back then politically between Bernie, Mosley and the big teams, it seems fairly likely that double diffuser would not have passed legality under normal circumstances. So it was an exceptional scenario.

There's always a chance Newey finds a loophole this time around too.

But the FIA only allows the loophole if they want the team/driver benefitting from it to win. If they dont, they ban it within 2-3 races. Thats the problem. They allowed double diffuser because they were fighting with McLaren and Ferrari at the time.

This is just a fabrication, and a fantasy.

Theres first hand account of it from Brawn, in that he specifically asked the FIA technical team (I'll paraphrase this) if they thought the rules were essentially watertight in this aspect of application, suggesting to them that he thought they were insufficient, that without disclosure of what the team had been developing and how it would be viewed against the rules proposed. They didn't think it necessary, and didn't change, or enhance the rules pertaining to this topic.

It was a "cute" move certainly, but once underway they really had no option to stand by what they'd said prior to season.

They couldn't realistically switch under that technical and moral position to ban the double diffuser. Its nothing to do with favouring or fixing outcome. They were effectively cornered, to their embarrassment.

As its a non safety issue, or couldn't be shoved into that box easily, it would then need team vote to be absolute if it where to be changed, and with three teams which wouldn't vote that way, it could only happen for the next season. Thats as I understand it from RB account of that season.

[peewon]

There's always a chance Newey finds a loophole this time around too.

But the FIA only allows the loophole if they want the team/driver benefitting from it to win. If they dont, they ban it within 2-3 races. Thats the problem. They allowed double diffuser because they were fighting with McLaren and Ferrari at the time.

This is just a fabrication, and a fantasy.

Theres first hand account of it from Brawn, in that he specifically asked the FIA technical team (I'll paraphrase this) if they thought the rules were essentially watertight in this aspect of application, suggesting to them that he thought they were insufficient, that without disclosure of what the team had been developing and how it would be viewed against the rules proposed. They didn't think it necessary, and didn't change, or enhance the rules pertaining to this topic.

It was a "cute" move certainly, but once underway they really had no option to stand by what they'd said prior to season.

They couldn't realistically switch under that technical and moral position to ban the double diffuser. Its nothing to do with favouring or fixing outcome. They were effectively cornered, to their embarrassment.

As its a non safety issue, or couldn't be shoved into that box easily, it would then need team vote to be absolute if it where to be changed, and with three teams which wouldn't vote that way, it could only happen for the next season. Thats as I understand it from RB account of that season.

Well Adrian Newey believes that they told different things to different for political reasons so its quite possible that Brawn got that answer but doesnt negate the point.

“In the end, it wasn’t a matter of whether it was legal or not. The real thing is that it became a political tool for Max Mosley. After we realised three teams, Brawn, Toyota and Williams had a double diffuser, I spoke to both Charlie Whiting and Max about it,” said Newey.

“Max assured me that he did not want the team turning up to Melbourne with a double diffuser, he viewed it as illegal. Then he realised he was in conflict with both McLaren and Ferrari, and he wanted to teach them a lesson. So he decided that the double diffuser would be legal after all to penalise McLaren and Ferrari, and we got caught up in the crosspath.”

There are many other people who share that opinion that only an extremely perverse interpretation of the wording of the rules allowed for a double diffuser. Language is a very versatile tool and intent can shape it in many forms.

[hsg]

Mercedes will make best engine, Newey best chassis, but difference from engine will be bigger so I think Mercedes will be fastest car, so Russell will be 2026 champion.
Red Bull will fall down and Max will be in other team in 2027, Mercedes or Aston.

[pantherxxx]

It will be Mercedes vs Red Bull fight for the title. Aston will be nowhere. Honda is already at disadvantage, because they didn't find that loophole with the engine that Mercedes and Red Bull already did. + Aston have horrible engineering team. Newey is just one person, he cannot change that. It's not a one man sport. Additionally a 45 years old Alonso doesn't have the pace of Russell anymore, and not even close to Verstappen. Yes he's a legend, but you can't define biology. Mclaren will be at huge disadvantage because as a customer team, the aero integration will hurt them bad.

Red Bull have the most complete package overall.

-Top notch aero and engineering department. Way better than Mercedes, only second to Mclaren.

-Best driver by far. Verstappen almost won this year with a car, that was in 70-80% of the times slower than Mclaren. If car is slighly better than RB21, guaranteed Verstappen title.

-Factory team. Engine and chassic designed in basically same building.

-More wind tunnel and CFD time than Mercedes and Mclaren.

-Top notch engine team. 170+ ex Mercedes HPP engineers, including 5 senior staff. + Massive industrial backing from Ford. Ford invested heavily in high discharge battery tech, thermal management, and software, all relevant to the 2026 F1 regs. They have years of advantage in relevant R&D in high discharge batteries. Smashed lap records everywhere with 2000 HP full electric Supervan 4.2. Third best overall lap on top gear test track, beating hypercars easily.
Mercedes, Ferrari, Honda, Audi, they have nothing similar. And that tech is directly relevant to F1, just like Jim Farley Ford CEO said.

So overall I would say Verstappen will win with RB 22. Russell or Antonelli will be second. Then the Mclarens. Aston and Ferrari no chance. Weak engine, weak aero team. Audi will be nowhere too. Customer teams no chance.

[selvam_e2002]

It will be Mercedes vs Red Bull fight for the title. Aston will be nowhere. Honda is already at disadvantage, because they didn't find that loophole with the engine that Mercedes and Red Bull already did. + Aston have horrible engineering team. Newey is just one person, he cannot change that. It's not a one man sport. Additionally a 45 years old Alonso doesn't have the pace of Russell anymore, and not even close to Verstappen. Yes he's a legend, but you can't define biology. Mclaren will be at huge disadvantage because as a customer team, the aero integration will hurt them bad.

Red Bull have the most complete package overall.

-Top notch aero and engineering department. Way better than Mercedes, only second to Mclaren.

-Best driver by far. Verstappen almost won this year with a car, that was in 70-80% of the times slower than Mclaren. If car is slighly better than RB21, guaranteed Verstappen title.

-Factory team. Engine and chassic designed in basically same building.

-More wind tunnel and CFD time than Mercedes and Mclaren.

-Top notch engine team. 170+ ex Mercedes HPP engineers, including 5 senior staff. + Massive industrial backing from Ford. Ford invested heavily in high discharge battery tech, thermal management, and software, all relevant to the 2026 F1 regs. They have years of advantage in relevant R&D in high discharge batteries. Smashed lap records everywhere with 2000 HP full electric Supervan 4.2. Third best overall lap on top gear test track, beating hypercars easily.
Mercedes, Ferrari, Honda, Audi, they have nothing similar. And that tech is directly relevant to F1, just like Jim Farley Ford CEO said.

So overall I would say Verstappen will win with RB 22. Russell or Antonelli will be second. Then the Mclarens. Aston and Ferrari no chance. Weak engine, weak aero team. Audi will be nowhere too. Customer teams no chance.

joke of the year 2025.

[FittingMechanics]

If RBPT manages to produce a great engine that will be an incredible feat. Comparable to a team building a new factory from scratch (think Cadillac) and immediately being a top team.

I just don't see it. I know they brought over a lot of talent but these things usually take a lot of time. RBPT guy in the interview said that one of the challenges was that they had to design every single component while other manufacturers don't have to redesign everything from scratch.

Ford is pretty much just a branding exercise. If you listen to RBPT people that much is clear.

[SealTheRealDeal]

Chadillac will place ahead of Ferrari, they've been working all in on the 2026 car for the longest of anyone, and customer engines are supposed to be the same as factory engines now.

Ok probably not, but I wouldn't be too shocked if Cadillac wasn't the worst team on the grid. An overpowered Merc engine couldn't save Manor, and I have negative faith in Alpine's leadership.

[Fred]

To include an actual pecking order likes been done previously, this is my general thoughts:

1. McLaren

2. Mercedes (~0.2s)

3. Ferrari / Red Bull (~0.4s)

5. Williams / Alpine (~1.0s)

7. Aston Martin (~1.1s)

8. Haas / Racing Bulls (~1.3s)

10. Audi Sauber (~1.5s)

11. Cadillac Andretti (~2.0s)

Here’s my predictions from last year too:

https://www.f1technical.net/forum/viewt ... 4#p1270874

That’s after testing though, and the rules were of course stable, so I don’t think I’ll be as close as I was then. I’ll also update my prediction after testing, but again it’s a new rule set so it’s hard to know too much beforehand, and the order typically changes a lot during the first year as different teams develop at very different rates. That said, I’m proud of how close I was with the last predictions, although I didn’t predict the order like this.