2026 pecking order speculation

[DDopey]

With the engine loophole I expected RB to move up a bit in the order?

[vorticism]

It will be Mercedes vs Red Bull fight for the title. Aston will be nowhere. Honda is already at disadvantage, because they didn't find that loophole with the engine that Mercedes and Red Bull already did. + Aston have horrible engineering team. Newey is just one person, he cannot change that. It's not a one man sport. Additionally a 45 years old Alonso doesn't have the pace of Russell anymore, and not even close to Verstappen. Yes he's a legend, but you can't define biology. Mclaren will be at huge disadvantage because as a customer team, the aero integration will hurt them bad.

Red Bull have the most complete package overall.

-Top notch aero and engineering department. Way better than Mercedes, only second to Mclaren.

-Best driver by far. Verstappen almost won this year with a car, that was in 70-80% of the times slower than Mclaren. If car is slighly better than RB21, guaranteed Verstappen title.

-Factory team. Engine and chassic designed in basically same building.

-More wind tunnel and CFD time than Mercedes and Mclaren.

-Top notch engine team. 170+ ex Mercedes HPP engineers, including 5 senior staff. + Massive industrial backing from Ford. Ford invested heavily in high discharge battery tech, thermal management, and software, all relevant to the 2026 F1 regs. They have years of advantage in relevant R&D in high discharge batteries. Smashed lap records everywhere with 2000 HP full electric Supervan 4.2. Third best overall lap on top gear test track, beating hypercars easily.
Mercedes, Ferrari, Honda, Audi, they have nothing similar. And that tech is directly relevant to F1, just like Jim Farley Ford CEO said.

So overall I would say Verstappen will win with RB 22. Russell or Antonelli will be second. Then the Mclarens. Aston and Ferrari no chance. Weak engine, weak aero team. Audi will be nowhere too. Customer teams no chance.

This is the sort of brutal honesty we need. Part of me doesn't want this to be true (about AMR) but there is a LOT of optimism around that team heading into next year. Hopium and wishful thinking can lead one astray from acknowledging reality. Time will tell.

A decapitated Red Bull Racing still almost defeated McLaren this year. Think about that.

Merc, McLaren, and Ferrari have had no existing car to copy like they had post 2009 era (cannon, rear pull, coke bottle, high rake, EBD, etc), post 2017 (sort of; RB14 brought the first true 'mid wings'), and post 2022 (obvious convergence toward the RB18 concept field-wide), which is where an AMR advantage might be, but it is not only the aero regs that are changing. Aero, power unit, operations, and drivers. Who will have the best amalgamation of those areas?

[Fred]

It will be Mercedes vs Red Bull fight for the title. Aston will be nowhere. Honda is already at disadvantage, because they didn't find that loophole with the engine that Mercedes and Red Bull already did. + Aston have horrible engineering team. Newey is just one person, he cannot change that. It's not a one man sport. Additionally a 45 years old Alonso doesn't have the pace of Russell anymore, and not even close to Verstappen. Yes he's a legend, but you can't define biology. Mclaren will be at huge disadvantage because as a customer team, the aero integration will hurt them bad.

Red Bull have the most complete package overall.

-Top notch aero and engineering department. Way better than Mercedes, only second to Mclaren.

-Best driver by far. Verstappen almost won this year with a car, that was in 70-80% of the times slower than Mclaren. If car is slighly better than RB21, guaranteed Verstappen title.

-Factory team. Engine and chassic designed in basically same building.

-More wind tunnel and CFD time than Mercedes and Mclaren.

-Top notch engine team. 170+ ex Mercedes HPP engineers, including 5 senior staff. + Massive industrial backing from Ford. Ford invested heavily in high discharge battery tech, thermal management, and software, all relevant to the 2026 F1 regs. They have years of advantage in relevant R&D in high discharge batteries. Smashed lap records everywhere with 2000 HP full electric Supervan 4.2. Third best overall lap on top gear test track, beating hypercars easily.
Mercedes, Ferrari, Honda, Audi, they have nothing similar. And that tech is directly relevant to F1, just like Jim Farley Ford CEO said.

So overall I would say Verstappen will win with RB 22. Russell or Antonelli will be second. Then the Mclarens. Aston and Ferrari no chance. Weak engine, weak aero team. Audi will be nowhere too. Customer teams no chance.

McLaren isn’t really a customer team and won’t have an higher risk of issues with the aero integration. They have an exclusive deal that allows them to be involved with and influence the engine design. It’s the exact same treatment the Mercedes factory team gets, so by all intents and purposes they are a factory team. Mercedes (or any other factory team) doesn’t have any additional advantages over them on this front. Considering McLaren have been consistently and significantly outperforming Mercedes since early 2023, I don’t think I’d be putting money on Mercedes to come out quicker, although it is a major regulation change and perhaps those rules didn’t suit Mercedes that well, so there’s still a decent shot for them to come out on top, I just wouldn’t be betting on them to do so.

I think you’re overestimating Red Bull a lot too. The news coming from them isn’t positive and despite finding the same engine loophole, they’re expected to have a bit of a disadvantage to Mercedes. I agree that they’ll probably be strong aero and chassis wise, but the engine will let them down. They’ve also lost a lot of their leadership and have facilities that are becoming outdated, which won’t typically hurt a team immediately, but a huge regulation change may expedite that. They’ll still be at the front, but it’s unlikely that they’ll have the best car. Regarding Max, I agree that if it’s close enough he’ll have a decent chance even if it isn’t the best.

I agree regarding the Aston’s though.

[pantherxxx]

I also realized that from 2026 onwards, the factor that has been the biggest obstacle for Red Bull's aerodynamic engineers could disappear.

It's fact that Red Bull uses a Cold War-era wind tunnel at Bedford, while McLaren recently commissioned a state of the art facility at Woking. Older tunnels often struggle with "belt-to-floor" simulation at extremely low ride heights. If the "rolling road" (the treadmill the car sits on) doesn't perfectly match the air speed, the floor data becomes "noisy." When you are looking for tiny gains, that "noise" makes it impossible to tell if a new floor winglet actually works.

By 2024-2025, the cars were operating in such a narrow, low-ride-height window (stiff setups, minimal flex, hyper-sensitive floor sealing) that tiny inaccuracies in wind tunnel data—especially rolling road simulation, temperature stability, and floor-to-belt fidelity—became amplified. Red Bull's Bedford facility, for all its upgrades, simply couldn't deliver the clean, repeatable data needed to confidently chase those final 5-10 points of downforce from micro floor tweaks (edge winglets, porosity, rake optimization). This led to correlation issues, upgrades that didn't translate on-track, balance swings, and higher tyre degradation—allowing McLaren (with their pristine new Woking tunnel) to outdevelop them consistently.

Pierre Waché and Christian Horner have been explicit about this: the tunnel was a limiting factor for the "small delta" development war that defined the end of this regs cycle. It's not that Red Bull's aero team forget how to design winning aero overnight; they were fighting with one hand tied behind their back on the tools side.

For 2026, that same Bedford tunnel becomes perfectly adequate again—maybe even an asset in the early phase.

Why? Ground effect is deliberately toned down (flatter floors, shorter tunnels, higher ride heights, ~30% less overall downforce), reducing the extreme sensitivity and "noise" that punished older facilities.

Focus shifts to upper-body aero, active front/rear wings, and wake management—areas where big conceptual ideas dominate over hyper-precise floor micro-gains.

New regs reset means the field starts hunting macro gains (30-40+ points of DF from bold layouts), exactly where legacy tunnels like Bedford have historically performed well for Red Bull (early 2022 dominance as proof).

The transition to the 2026 regulations are effectively eliminating Red Bull’s most significant bottleneck. In the early stages of a new ruleset, the development race is defined by finding massive 'macro' gains—30 to 40 points of downforce—rather than the microscopic optimization of floor-to-asphalt interaction. Because the 2026 cars will rely less on extreme ground-effect sensitivity, Red Bull’s legacy wind tunnel will once again be a perfectly viable tool for aero development. Additionally, I think this could also be an advantage for Mercedes, as they were the strongest before the introduction of ground effect, which confirms that Red Bull and Mercedes could battle it out for the title in 2026.

In 2026 teams will have to compete on pure conceptual innovation, an area where Red Bull’s aero team has historically been the best. Fans love the "hero" narrative of Newey, but departmental depth is more important. These cars are designed by hundreds of people. If you take one person out of a 120-person aero team, the team is still 99% intact. And that 99% still knows how to win. If they could win 8 races in 2025 and keep the 2025 title fight alive while their tools were "telling the time on two different watches" (as Christian Horner famously put it), then their engineering talent is clearly still in place.

[FittingMechanics]

I like that you are optimistic for your team but you are exhibiting incredible amounts of wishful thinking.

It would be best to manage expectations as a Red Bull fan. The engine is the biggest liability and if it's good, that will be a massive feat.

[SealTheRealDeal]

I have faith in RB's aero and engineering departments despite the brain drain all top teams have had since the cost-cap.

I remain skeptical of their engine though, despite recent news/rumours. A trick component/layout does not a good engine make. Pundits and technical enthusiasts alike spent years talking about Merc's split turbo being the magic bullet for the previous generation of engines, yet when Honda made the switch in 2017 their reliability got worse and it still took them until 2021 to reach engine parity with Mercedes, and when Renault made the switch in 2022 they also had many reliability issues and they never made up their power deficit. Not saying that *will* happen to Red Bull, but I think it's worth keeping in mind.

[Emag]

I have faith in RB's aero and engineering departments despite the brain drain all top teams have had since the cost-cap.

I remain skeptical of their engine though, despite recent news/rumours. A trick component/layout does not a good engine make. Pundits and technical enthusiasts alike spent years talking about Merc's split turbo being the magic bullet for the previous generation of engines, yet when Honda made the switch in 2017 their reliability got worse and it still took them until 2021 to reach engine parity with Mercedes, and when Renault made the switch in 2022 they also had many reliability issues and they never made up their power deficit. Not saying that *will* happen to Red Bull, but I think it's worth keeping in mind.

The new regulations are a big test for the remaining Red Bull technical staff in my opinion, and I am very curious to see how they fare. Red Bull cars have usually had a certain flair, often quite extreme and full of clever details.

That said, during the ground effect era they have lost several key people, like Dan Fallows, Rob Marshall, and of course Adrian Newey just to name a few. It remains to be seen whether this will have a lasting impact on future car development. Were these individuals truly that important, or does Red Bull have a lot of engineering talent that has simply been overshadowed by a few big names?

There were some encouraging signs with Wache as technical director this season, since they managed to bring the car to a level where Max could challenge and beat a very strong McLaren. However, there are other factors to consider. The launch spec was weak and inconsistent, arguably costing Max a real shot at the title. Then, after the turnaround with the Monza package, they ran into another setback with the Mexico floor, which caused unnecessary headaches.

In any case, the ground effect era in general has been messy ad very tricky for teams to deal with. I cannot really recall any team other than McLaren that did not revert at least one upgrade package between 2022 and 2025. With a return to a flat floor, one could argue that Red Bull, Mercedes, and Ferrari have more experience than McLaren in that area. Still, the 2026 rules are a strange mix of pre 2009 concepts and more modern ideas, so it is unclear how much of that experience will carry over.

Overall, it is shaping up to be a very intriguing season from a development perspective. I am really hoping power units do not end up being the decisive factor. Makes it boring imo. At the moment I am really looking forward to the first official test to see what the teams have produced. My guess is that the initial private tests will feature underdeveloped or mule cars, so we may not get a clear picture until later in February.

[AR3-GP]

Mclaren has to prove the same thing. They've only developed a good car under 1 set of rules. We don't know if they are a one hit wonder.

[Vettel165]

My prediction is Red Bull will suprise everyone, Max destroying the field in 2026 and getting that fifth title... The season is just good 2 months away.

[Zhouvinazzi]

I also realized that from 2026 onwards, the factor that has been the biggest obstacle for Red Bull's aerodynamic engineers could disappear.

It's fact that Red Bull uses a Cold War-era wind tunnel at Bedford, while McLaren recently commissioned a state of the art facility at Woking. Older tunnels often struggle with "belt-to-floor" simulation at extremely low ride heights. If the "rolling road" (the treadmill the car sits on) doesn't perfectly match the air speed, the floor data becomes "noisy." When you are looking for tiny gains, that "noise" makes it impossible to tell if a new floor winglet actually works.

By 2024-2025, the cars were operating in such a narrow, low-ride-height window (stiff setups, minimal flex, hyper-sensitive floor sealing) that tiny inaccuracies in wind tunnel data—especially rolling road simulation, temperature stability, and floor-to-belt fidelity—became amplified. Red Bull's Bedford facility, for all its upgrades, simply couldn't deliver the clean, repeatable data needed to confidently chase those final 5-10 points of downforce from micro floor tweaks (edge winglets, porosity, rake optimization). This led to correlation issues, upgrades that didn't translate on-track, balance swings, and higher tyre degradation—allowing McLaren (with their pristine new Woking tunnel) to outdevelop them consistently.

Pierre Waché and Christian Horner have been explicit about this: the tunnel was a limiting factor for the "small delta" development war that defined the end of this regs cycle. It's not that Red Bull's aero team forget how to design winning aero overnight; they were fighting with one hand tied behind their back on the tools side.

For 2026, that same Bedford tunnel becomes perfectly adequate again—maybe even an asset in the early phase.

Why? Ground effect is deliberately toned down (flatter floors, shorter tunnels, higher ride heights, ~30% less overall downforce), reducing the extreme sensitivity and "noise" that punished older facilities.

Focus shifts to upper-body aero, active front/rear wings, and wake management—areas where big conceptual ideas dominate over hyper-precise floor micro-gains.

New regs reset means the field starts hunting macro gains (30-40+ points of DF from bold layouts), exactly where legacy tunnels like Bedford have historically performed well for Red Bull (early 2022 dominance as proof).

The transition to the 2026 regulations are effectively eliminating Red Bull’s most significant bottleneck. In the early stages of a new ruleset, the development race is defined by finding massive 'macro' gains—30 to 40 points of downforce—rather than the microscopic optimization of floor-to-asphalt interaction. Because the 2026 cars will rely less on extreme ground-effect sensitivity, Red Bull’s legacy wind tunnel will once again be a perfectly viable tool for aero development. Additionally, I think this could also be an advantage for Mercedes, as they were the strongest before the introduction of ground effect, which confirms that Red Bull and Mercedes could battle it out for the title in 2026.

In 2026 teams will have to compete on pure conceptual innovation, an area where Red Bull’s aero team has historically been the best. Fans love the "hero" narrative of Newey, but departmental depth is more important. These cars are designed by hundreds of people. If you take one person out of a 120-person aero team, the team is still 99% intact. And that 99% still knows how to win. If they could win 8 races in 2025 and keep the 2025 title fight alive while their tools were "telling the time on two different watches" (as Christian Horner famously put it), then their engineering talent is clearly still in place.

Why are you using ChatGPT to write slop replies in all these threads? It’s very obvious and doesn’t really add much.

[Emag]

Mclaren has to prove the same thing. They've only developed a good car under 1 set of rules. We don't know if they are a one hit wonder.

True, but McLaren is the opposite of RedBull in the sense that they have to prove all those changes/investments and new hires will have an effect no matter the regulation set.

Somehow I don't have high expectations for McLaren at the start of the season though. Would be very impressive if they're fighting for wins right from the get go. Similar to what my expectations were of RedBull in 2022 actually, but we all know how that turned out. Remains to be seen. McLaren definitely has the people and the infrastructure. On paper, there is no reason why they should fumble. Anything less than a frequent podium contender should be considered a huge failure imo.

[dren]

Thoughts on Williams? They might surprise.

[Badger]

McLaren isn’t really a customer team and won’t have an higher risk of issues with the aero integration. They have an exclusive deal that allows them to be involved with and influence the engine design. It’s the exact same treatment the Mercedes factory team gets, so by all intents and purposes they are a factory team. Mercedes (or any other factory team) doesn’t have any additional advantages over them on this front.

HPP can design one engine that gives full factory benefits to two different teams? How does one serve two masters?

As long as Mercedes has a factory team in the sport HPP's purpose will be to win with that team.

[Chuckjr]

Thoughts on Williams? They might surprise.

True that. They are my dark horse pick for 2026 biggest improvement team.
I would not be surprised if the 18:1 conspiracy is true, that Williams usurps Ferrari, which would be incredible to witness.

[FittingMechanics]

McLaren isn’t really a customer team and won’t have an higher risk of issues with the aero integration. They have an exclusive deal that allows them to be involved with and influence the engine design. It’s the exact same treatment the Mercedes factory team gets, so by all intents and purposes they are a factory team. Mercedes (or any other factory team) doesn’t have any additional advantages over them on this front.

HPP can design one engine that gives full factory benefits to two different teams? How does one serve two masters?

As long as Mercedes has a factory team in the sport HPP's purpose will be to win with that team.

I believe this factory advantage is overblown. This is the age of engines that are much smaller than the bodywork that covers them, most of engines have plenty of room under the cover and the bodywork is used to help with the aero. This is not the age when the engines were big so if you wanted to pursue a certain aero direction you needed to adapt the engine to it.

McLaren may have to accept general layout of Mercedes engine but this is not the penalty it used to be. McLaren also build their own gearbox and suspensions so they have more freedom than if they just accepted Mercedes built ones.

I guess we will see, but I just don't think it is a factor it used to be.

In addition, 2026 cars were not supposed to have been developed earlier than mid 2025. So legally, Mercedes couldn't really push their engine department toward a specific aero design they have. Even if they did, they couldn't have large amount of data to base this on as they couldn't run simulations or use wind tunnels for 2026 cars before that moment (and engines need more time than that to design). So 2026 should be even less of an advantage for Mercedes as they probably started to work on the car on the same day as McLaren and they both got the packaging information at that time.

My thoughts on the matter (I am a McLaren fan so not objective) is that it seems that McLaren realized their advantage very early on and predicted an easy WDC/WCC for McLaren, they switched development as early as possible to 2026. If true this is a plus for McLaren. Their correlation in last 3 years was perfect, all updates worked well and the car was improving faster than most other cars. If this holds, this is another good point for 2026.

But it's always hard to stay at the top. Realistically speaking someone else will probably get there, it could easily be Mercedes or Ferrari. Red Bull I would be surprised if they stay at the top, I think they sacrificed 2026 development to keep Max happy and to win political games, engine is a big question mark, their correlation wasn't very good and they struggled to understand their car. This makes me feel it's unlikely they get it right in 2026.