2026 pecking order speculation

[continuum16]

I think to guess the team pecking order we have to guess the engine/PU pecking order first:

Mercedes
RB-Ford, Honda
Ferrari
Audi

Since Mercedes became a supplier in the 90s, their engines have always been at or near the top of the field; I expect no different. Red Bull I have reliability questions over more than performance, as a new 'OEM' and whatnot, even if there is a lot of staff poached from Mercedes HPP. Honda might not have the peak of RB but they are now much more experienced with 1.6L V6 turbo than 2015. I doubt there will be a repeat of 2015.

Also I believe some of the Honda work is being done by HRC US which has been working on turbo V6s for 13 years in Indycar and also worked on the "shelved" 2.4L hybrid V6 Indycar project that more or less went into the Acura ARX06 prototype LMDh that runs now. Obviously not a 1:1 transfer of info but their knowledge pool is deeper than it was at the last reg change for sure.

Audi might have some Binotto trickery sprinkled in, but as a new OEM to F1 without a lot recent relevant experience I can't rate them above last in good faith. Ferrari is a total mystery box imo. Usually there are lots of "Ferrari is ahead" or "Ferrari is in shambles" "news" that, unless I completely missed something, are not materializing (yet). I don't have a lot of faith in Ferrari in general at the moment, though, so I would not be shocked to see them be slightly behind.

So, that brings us to the teams:

McLaren
Mercedes + VER + ALO
Williams + LEC
HAM + STR + HAD
Alpine
Racing Bulls
Audi
Haas
Cadillac

I separate the Ferrari, AM, and RB teammates because I think you will have at least a 0.3s gap between them which is a delta more than enough to fit one or more teams into.

I reckon the bottom 3 teams will struggle to score points and the average delta from P1 to P22 will be around 2-2.5s/lap.

Whether or not ground effect ('22-25) or flat floor (pre-'22) knowledge will be more relevant is a good point. I wonder if we are headed for another high rake vs. low rake kind of situation. I, like most, have not read the 2026 rules in detail, but I wonder what kind of trickery we could see on the floor edges and in front of the rear tires or if that has been properly guarded against in the new rules. IIRC Vowles (or some other TP) mentioned concerns over front skid wear (in relation to when the front active areo should activate to reduce front load and therefore raise ride height) which would seem to indicate a nose-down/high rake philosophy.

[TimW]

I wouldn't expect RB powertrains above Ferrari. In essence they are in a similar situation as Audi, newcomer which hired some experienced people.

Dark horse for me is Alpine, first time without a power deficit (if Mercedes engine performs as expected)

[bluechris]

I think everyone as matter engine will be almost equal. This is not 2014 where the changes where fundamental. Especially in the electrical side i think Honda will be on top or equal with whichever is the next best. Keep in mind that the most crucial part from 2026 onwards is the electric power/delivery/harvesting.

[sucof]

The fun these days is in that so many rules are changing at once.
Did anyone of you anticipate Mercedes with the separated turbo and compressor in 2014? I doubt that.
In 2026 a lot more things are changing, so no one of us even knows at which part of the new cars will be the key to find the most performance.
And because all these, I am pretty sure half of the field has a chance to dominate next year if they get the right things correctly.
I find this debate here a bit baseless to be honest, because of this.
I mean, guys, just take it easy
I eagerly wait for the now unknown buzz words for the next year, like it was proposing, compression ratio and so on.

[AR3-GP]

It raises the question of what will be the most important performance differentiator in 2026.

“I would expect the engine to be the main factor initially, the ICE. We obviously have newcomers and new ICE regulations, so we expect some initial differentiation,” FIA single-seater director Nikolas Tombazis told select media, including Autosport.

https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/what- ... /10787686/

[r85]

The fun these days is in that so many rules are changing at once.
Did anyone of you anticipate Mercedes with the separated turbo and compressor in 2014? I doubt that.
In 2026 a lot more things are changing, so no one of us even knows at which part of the new cars will be the key to find the most performance.
And because all these, I am pretty sure half of the field has a chance to dominate next year if they get the right things correctly.
I find this debate here a bit baseless to be honest, because of this.
I mean, guys, just take it easy
I eagerly wait for the now unknown buzz words for the next year, like it was proposing, compression ratio and so on.

Yep, I didn't look too much in the compression ratio loophole for example. Won't necessarily mean much if Honda and/or Ferrari find another way to gain those few tenths back. That said, I'm half-expecting Mercedes to be at the front because they won't have the complex ground effect aero to worry about and their reliably quick engines. I'm not putting McLaren ahead of them, just a gut feeling though

[selvam_e2002]

Basically Honda and Alonso marriage never worked out. So I am predicting struggle for Honda here with AM along with Alonso.
Mercedes will be way ahead for this era of change.. followed by Mclaren,Alphine and Williams.... then RB, Ferrai then comes Honda and Audi.....

I am also not happy with Honda... they are not consistent with F1... it is like come and go mind set they have..... It is too risky for AM if Honda did not deliver good engine....

[AR3-GP]

Basically Honda and Alonso marriage never worked out. So I am predicting struggle for Honda here with AM along with Alonso.
Mercedes will be way ahead for this era of change.. followed by Mclaren,Alphine and Williams.... then RB, Ferrai then comes Honda and Audi.....

I am also not happy with Honda... they are not consistent with F1... it is like come and go mind set they have..... It is too risky for AM if Honda did not deliver good engine....

How do you know that Honda is not doing well?

[Fred]

You mean the guy trying to downplay narratives about Merc being the best? My only read from that article is that Vowles seems content with where Merc is at and he doesn't want any rule changes. As for Honda they were never THE benchmark, they got close but never surpassed.

They dethroned mercedes and won four championships in a row .they could have won the fifth one is Max head was not down his ass.the echochamber on merc superiority is getting tedious no one knows what's going to happen until the cars start running in February. The lazy media is acting like merc marketing team,they are not breaking any inside info on different manufacturers just same story same narrative recycled over and over again.

I think your confidence is misplaced. Last time Honda made a late decision to join they created what is perhaps the worst engine in F1 history, the Honda RA615H "GP2". This time around they've made yet another late decision to join, losing them valuable development time. It shouldn't be anywhere near as bad as 2015 given all the legacy development from the previous era but I don't see them being as good as Mercedes or Ferrari in 2026. Let's hope for their sake they don't end up behind RBPT, that would be embarrassing to put it mildly.

To add to this, there was a rumour that Newey asked Honda to completely rebuild their engine so he can have much tighter packaging after he saw what they had in mind. It sounds a lot like history repeating itself to me.

That said, while I don’t think they’ll be one of the best, I don’t think it’ll be as bad as 2015. We’ll also probably see the Honda engine improving the most again and I have no doubts that it’ll be on par again come the start of 2028 at the latest.

Ferrari is the one that’ll be interesting. It’s a bit of a dark horse if they’re on the backfoot like Honda, or if things are going along smoothly like they are at Mercedes. I’m inclined to think it’s more a case of the latter, not the former, though and I think they’ll come out fairly strongly as they always do. I don’t think the spread between these 3 engines will be as big as people are expecting though. I think Ford and Audi will likely struggle a bit, but Honda, Ferrari, and Mercedes should all produce fairly decent engines. Only one I can see maybe struggling is Honda, but that’s just because they’re on the backfoot and I suspect they’ll quickly catch up if they do struggle.

[Bill]

They dethroned mercedes and won four championships in a row .they could have won the fifth one is Max head was not down his ass.the echochamber on merc superiority is getting tedious no one knows what's going to happen until the cars start running in February. The lazy media is acting like merc marketing team,they are not breaking any inside info on different manufacturers just same story same narrative recycled over and over again.

I think your confidence is misplaced. Last time Honda made a late decision to join they created what is perhaps the worst engine in F1 history, the Honda RA615H "GP2". This time around they've made yet another late decision to join, losing them valuable development time. It shouldn't be anywhere near as bad as 2015 given all the legacy development from the previous era but I don't see them being as good as Mercedes or Ferrari in 2026. Let's hope for their sake they don't end up behind RBPT, that would be embarrassing to put it mildly.

To add to this, there was a rumour that Newey asked Honda to completely rebuild their engine so he can have much tighter packaging after he saw what they had in mind. It sounds a lot like history repeating itself to me.

That said, while I don’t think they’ll be one of the best, I don’t think it’ll be as bad as 2015. We’ll also probably see the Honda engine improving the most again and I have no doubts that it’ll be on par again come the start of 2028 at the latest.

Ferrari is the one that’ll be interesting. It’s a bit of a dark horse if they’re on the backfoot like Honda, or if things are going along smoothly like they are at Mercedes. I’m inclined to think it’s more a case of the latter, not the former, though and I think they’ll come out fairly strongly as they always do. I don’t think the spread between these 3 engines will be as big as people are expecting though. I think Ford and Audi will likely struggle a bit, but Honda, Ferrari, and Mercedes should all produce fairly decent engines. Only one I can see maybe struggling is Honda, but that’s just because they’re on the backfoot and I suspect they’ll quickly catch up if they do struggle.

These is 2026 not 2015 the engine is the same as the one from 2025 less some complex sensors and a reduction in compression ratio and turbo boost. So basically no current manufacturer should struggle on the engine front. The only battle front will be on batteries and electronic systems. Other than that stroll does not seem to have big problem hiring top talent that's a vote of confidence on honda, compared to redbull were people are taking flight.

[Badger]

Worries around AMR and Honda. Looks like The Race has been digging around in this thread looking for narratives.
https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/worr ... tin-honda/

Basically hits on most of the things I’ve said in here. Honda started late, they dismantled their previous engine group, they have previous form failing under similar circumstances, the shake-up at the top of the organisation before the end of the season is a bad sign.

Additional points made in the article: more constraints on spending than their previous programme, missed a trick with the compression ratio, rumours that they are behind on the electrical side, wide geographical spread between team, engine, and fuel suppliers, and Aramco have not supplied F1 fuel before.

Some points I agree with, others are overstated. What I will say is they are vastly overrated in this poll.

[sucof]

Worries around AMR and Honda. Looks like The Race has been digging around in this thread looking for narratives.
https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/worr ... tin-honda/

Basically hits on most of the things I’ve said in here. Honda started late, they dismantled their previous engine group, they have previous form failing under similar circumstances, the shake-up at the top of the organisation before the end of the season is a bad sign.

Additional points made in the article: more constraints on spending than their previous programme, missed a trick with the compression ratio, rumours that they are behind on the electrical side, wide geographical spread between team, engine, and fuel suppliers, and Aramco have not supplied F1 fuel before.

Some points I agree with, others are overstated. What I will say is they are vastly overrated in this poll.

These are still only rumours.

[Badger]

Worries around AMR and Honda. Looks like The Race has been digging around in this thread looking for narratives.
https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/worr ... tin-honda/

Basically hits on most of the things I’ve said in here. Honda started late, they dismantled their previous engine group, they have previous form failing under similar circumstances, the shake-up at the top of the organisation before the end of the season is a bad sign.

Additional points made in the article: more constraints on spending than their previous programme, missed a trick with the compression ratio, rumours that they are behind on the electrical side, wide geographical spread between team, engine, and fuel suppliers, and Aramco have not supplied F1 fuel before.

Some points I agree with, others are overstated. What I will say is they are vastly overrated in this poll.

These are still only rumours.

Definitive conclusions about performance are rumour but circumstantial facts are not. It's a fact they started late, it's a fact they dismantled much the F1 engine department before rejoining, it's a fact the FIA has been queried on compression ratios by Honda amongst others, it's a fact they reshuffled their management only a few months ago, it's a fact Aramco has never produced an F1 fuel. It can inform our expectations even if it's not definitive proof, which seems apt in the "pecking order discussion" thread.

[madridista]

Worries around AMR and Honda. Looks like The Race has been digging around in this thread looking for narratives.
https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/worr ... tin-honda/

Basically hits on most of the things I’ve said in here. Honda started late, they dismantled their previous engine group, they have previous form failing under similar circumstances, the shake-up at the top of the organisation before the end of the season is a bad sign.

Additional points made in the article: more constraints on spending than their previous programme, missed a trick with the compression ratio, rumours that they are behind on the electrical side, wide geographical spread between team, engine, and fuel suppliers, and Aramco have not supplied F1 fuel before.

Some points I agree with, others are overstated. What I will say is they are vastly overrated in this poll.

Looks like plain gpt slop and a low effort article to me.

But it isn't, and so all of those things are not just a threat: they are Honda's reality.

Nothing of substance and the general stuff we all know already, eg. Honda not exploiting the compression ratio, nothing new there. Main performance differentiator is still going to be the aero and the electrical stuff. The Ice is largely carryover from the current ones, so their later entry shouldnt be a topic. No, the circumstances are not comparable to their previous entry at all.

The guy knows there is lots of hype around the team and tries to shock/generate a headline, which is ok but nothing of value.

[dren]

I like how they are really trying to make this CR thing a make or break issue for the teams.