Stradivarius wrote:When looking at the previous 5 races it might give us some idea of what to expect from the next 5 races, although all the contenders have been affect by DNFs. Vettel has taken 80 points, despite his DNF at Monza, where he looked like he could take another 10 points. Alonso has taken only 40 points, as the last 5 races has been the worst 5-race period for him so far this year (with 2 DNFs), comming just after 3 strong races during the middle of the season where he tok two victories and a second place. Hamilton has taken 60 points during the last 5 races and that is actually his strongest 5-race period this year, despite two retirements. Based on the recent results, I would say that Vettel is clear favourite of winning the championship. 80 points in 5 races will give Vettel a total of 270 points. I would say that this is way out of Hamiltons reach. He would have to take 4 victories and a second place in order to reach 270 points.
Excellent numbers. Do keep in mind though that if Hamilton were to score 4 victories and a second place in order to reach 270 points, Vettel wouldn't be close to that benchmark - obviously, because one drivers win is another ones points lost.
I also think Hamilton is the dark horse in this case - he's won the same amount of races as Vettel in the past 5 races - if it weren't for his 3 retirements in the last 6 races, he'd probably have scored more points than any driver in that period. At the very least, that DNF in Singapore must have hurt, not only costing him 25 points, but also gifting Vettel an additional 7 points (25, instead of 18) and Alonso 3 points (15 instead of 12). That would make the numbers 85 for Hamilton, compared to 73 for Vettel. On the other hand, Vettels alternator failure when he was running 6th at Monza with 5 laps to go, cost him 8 points. So it would be closer with 81 points for Vettel and 85 for Hamilton (not counting Hamiltons DNF in Spa).
The last 5 races have been equally difficult for Alonso - with, I would say, 2 potential 3rd places at Spa and Suzuka. If we add that to his total, it would be closer to 70 points.
To recap (points last 5 races without DNFs -- * = fantasy points):
Vettel: HUN 12, SPA 18, ITA *8, SIN *18, JPN 25 = 81
Hamilton: HUN 25, SPA *8, ITA 25, SIN *25, JPN *8 = 91
Alonso: HUN 10, SPA *15, ITA 15, SIN *12, JPN *15 = 67
Bear in mind, these are the points I came up with assuming no DNFs and I made an estimate where they would have finished and rewarded points to the other drivers using that accoardingly. E.g.: in Suzuka, had Alonso finished, I'm pretty sure he would have finished ahead of Hamilton, so I dropped him down from 5th to 6th while awarding Alonso a 3rd place finish. I guess, realistically, I could have dropped Hamilton down another place, because Webber would have scored a higher finish as well. The 2 points difference is not detrimental to the overall pointscore though. I think they are reasonable guesses, assuming a normal race. The numbers show that if a team could get things right and not suffer technical DNF, the race is very close. It also shows that Hamilton and Vettel are very close to each other - too close in results for Hamilton to close the gap to Vettel, assuming no more DNFs for either drivers.
Just for the fun of it:
Kimi: HUN 18, SPA 15, ITA 10, SIN *6, JPN *6 = 55
I personally think this is Vetels to lose now, as I consider RedBull the strongest team. I'm not too sure Hamilton should be counted out though. Some strong finishes could turn the table, although the likelyhood of that happening are slim IMO, since he doesn't only have one gap to close, but two. And the likelyhood of both Vettel and Alonsos having a DNF are slim... I also think there will be at least one more DNF for one of the 3 WDC contenders in the remaining races.
A strong Hamilton/McLaren, could make things even more interesting between Alonso and Vettel though.
It's going to be very interesting indeed.
