If Ferrari is only 10hp down with their ICE, but lack the ERS capability, then there is some hope that they can make in-roads into Mercedes's advantage.
In pre-season testing at Bahrain, Ferrari managed the fastest, or nearly fastest, straight line speed. That, however, had to be preceeded by a slow lap with little or no ERS usage and followed by another slow lap with little or no ERS.
This would tend to support the ICE being in teh ballpark, but not the overall PU.