As long as Mercedes retains their qualifying advantage Ferrari is going to have a hard time winning on pace alone. If you need 1s+ in performance to be able to overtake Ferrari is not going to have such an advantage in the race. So either winning the start or undercutting at the pit stop is their only chance. And only if on the US tires Mercedes does not open up a 9 second gap.
Interesting choice of tires though between Merc & Ferrari