RS200E wrote: ↑07 Sep 2017, 14:01
Actually diminishing returns isn't appropriate in this situation. There are other factors at work in F1 and these PU's are the most complex ever, so diminishing returns might not arise for another 10 years when there will be new engines anyway. In the V8 era there was imposed equalisation when Renault were allowed to catch up. Kers introduction also threw in a massive differentiator. V10 era Illmor tried to introduce beryllium with McLaren Mercedes which was banned immediately but could have been a great performance boost.
I'd argue
diminishing returns can be quite an ambiguous term. What I understand it to mean, is that with every year moving forward, the expected increase in performance will decrease.
Example:
Year 1: 70% of the true potential of the given engine Formula
Year 2: 85% ""
Year 3: 92% ""
Year 4: 95% ""
Year 5: 97% ""
Year 6: 97.7% "
These are just hypothetical numbers to illustrate the point in an exaggerated way, mind you. The point being, once you reach a certain efficiency, the improvement and increase in performance become marginal. Engine A might be at 97.7%, Engine B at 96.3%, Engine C at 95.7%. At that point, the difference in chassis, aero-efficiency and other factors become more important.
This should technically be feasible with the current engine formula because it's not an "open engine formula". There are restrictions in place to ensure where the development takes place. For example: There's the cap on fuel flow and fuel capacity as we all know it. There's also a cap on the ERS component. This makes it an efficiency formula. For the best results, you want the best efficiency, lower weight, less friction/losses etc. How much energy that is inside the fuel is also a factor, especially with teams obviously exploring other means for more power for example, by adding additives to the oil.
Many of these venues will be blocked and addressed by the FIA at the latest next year. The oil limit is being reduced, most recently at Monza, but the methods of measuring how much oil is being used is still rudimentary (According to AMuS they use a oil dipstick). Apparently going into next year, this will be addressed. Also only 1 spec of oil will be allowed for the entire weekend, potentially closing potential loop holes to get more power for quick laps during qualifying.
Of course, there's no way to know how many of these venues Honda has been pursuing with their engine, but it's clear that the steps the FIA is taking will potentially further decrease the gap between engines. While I don't expect all engines to reach parity, I fully expect them to be close enough to each other that on most tracks, chassis and aero will be more important and only at tracks like Spa and Monza to continue to be an advantage to those with more efficient engines.
The fact that only 3 engines can be used next year will also mean that those fighting for championships will only have 3 specs to homolgate. Honda, if they are behind, can still bring more engines (and will) but of course will simply have to endure grid penalties, to further close that gap. This means that the teams at the top will be limited in their engine development throughout their season, unless they are happy to risk penalties as well.