2017 Championship Permutations

[TAG]

Oh come on Lewis you cannot be without DNF whole season

Since 2007 he´s not gone one single year without a retirement.
So the odds is not in his favor

The odds have never favored him, he'd have a WDC or two more otherwise. One year without a DNF would be the anomaly.

[M greenhouse]

I feel the odds are favouring Hamilton this year. Particularly given Vettels appalling luck since the summer break

[Moose]

It's about time Hamilton got some good luck tbh.

On topic though. Assuming Hamilton wins from here, which seems pretty likely, he'll lead the championship by 59 points.

Vettel will need to gain 15 points per race, so he must win every remaining race with Hamilton finishing 5th or lower in every remaining race. That's not a scenario that seems too likely.

If Hamilton has a single DNF, then Vettel will still need to gain 12 points per race for the remaining 3, so he'd need to win with Hamilton 4th or lower in all of them.

Realistically, the only way for this to become a fight is for Hamilton to suffer 2 DNFs in 4 races.

[Moose]

You know, if the result is as it is, the question we should be asking is not "will Vettel beat Hamilton in the championship", it's "will Bottas make it a Mercedes 1-2 in the championship?"

He'll only be 13 points behind Vettel if he finishes where he is, and given that he started on Softs, and will end on Super Softs while the RBRs are on Softs, I can believe that he'll finish higher than he currently is.

[Sevach]

This turned out into a very anti climatic battle.

[Moose]

So then, this is the first time we can talk seriously about final victory in the championship.

At CotA:
If Hamilton wins, and Vettel is 6th or lower, Lewis is the champion.
If Hamilton is second, and Vettel is 9th or lower, Lewis is the champion.

[Restomaniac]

Well that's both championships done.
145 ahead in the WCC and 59 ahead in the WDC.
What a damn squib that turned out to be.

[i70q7m7ghw]

Can we run the "calculations" again and see if it's still "not good" ?

[Phil]

Who’s, mine?

I am seriously convinced Ferrari have a monster of a car and before this race, i calculated still a rather big chance for Vettel to take the championship. Now however, the odds have shifted significantly.

Prior this race, Vettel could still win by himself. Now its not possible, only if Mercedes/Hamilton stuff up.

Even if we account for bad luck and assume Ferrari and Redbull have stronger cars for the rest of the season, Hamilton can pretty much afford to finish right behind 4 times in a row and still win the WDC. Just. He’ll need a 5th, 5th, 5th and 4th on that account.

I expect Hamilton/Mercedes to be strong in CotA. This will set him up nicely for the WDC i think. Unless, that engine somehow develops a problem...

[ringo]

sooo... looks like we will soon have 3 four time champions. Next year will be the first man to 5 championships to join fangio.

[i70q7m7ghw]

Assuming Vettel/Hamilton fight for the title, nothing to say Verstappen won't be a contender. There are rumblings Hamilton could hang up his racing gloves if he wins this year...

[Phil]

The most damning permutation i can come up with to illustrate how good Vettels chances are of still winning is...

Well, not good.

If Hamilton wins another race and has a 5th place, the title is secured, no matter what Vettel does.


To be slightly more optimistic for Vettel fans and those in the hope of a more exciting season finish...

...assuming Hamilton has a compromized PU coming off Suzuka (the vibrations reported at the end), does anyone know what Mercedes engine allocation is? If i were Mercedes, i would devote resources into securing CotA as that must be surely a strong track for Hamilton and Mercedes. If they win that, they could be more relaxed going into the last 3 races, even with penalties or taking a further PU?

Any thoughts?

[Jolle]

The most damning permutation i can come up with to illustrate how good Vettels chances are of still winning is...

Well, not good.

If Hamilton wins another race and has a 5th place, the title is secured, no matter what Vettel does.


To be slightly more optimistic for Vettel fans and those in the hope of a more exciting season finish...

...assuming Hamilton has a compromized PU coming off Suzuka (the vibrations reported at the end), does anyone know what Mercedes engine allocation is? If i were Mercedes, i would devote resources into securing CotA as that must be surely a strong track for Hamilton and Mercedes. If they win that, they could be more relaxed going into the last 3 races, even with penalties or taking a further PU?

Any thoughts?

That it's hard to find any real chance for Vettel to still win. Hamilton does what he does every season for the past few years, only with a smaller gap: win half the races he's in. He just needs 41 points from 4 races. He, since the hybrids started, always gotten more then 41 points out of 4 races straight, even when everything went wrong (engine fires, exploding brakes, electrical failures, team-mate crashing into him, etc). Vettel on the other hand hasn't won two races straight after 2013 and Ferrari since 2010.

[Restomaniac]

The most damning permutation i can come up with to illustrate how good Vettels chances are of still winning is...

Well, not good.

If Hamilton wins another race and has a 5th place, the title is secured, no matter what Vettel does.


To be slightly more optimistic for Vettel fans and those in the hope of a more exciting season finish...

...assuming Hamilton has a compromized PU coming off Suzuka (the vibrations reported at the end), does anyone know what Mercedes engine allocation is? If i were Mercedes, i would devote resources into securing CotA as that must be surely a strong track for Hamilton and Mercedes. If they win that, they could be more relaxed going into the last 3 races, even with penalties or taking a further PU?

Any thoughts?

My thoughts are that you can stick a fork in it. It's done. Hamilton has 2 DNF's in his pocket with 4 races to go.

Hamilton can win 1, come second in another and park his car and go for a walk in the other 2 and still win the WDC.

[TAG]

On so many levels, this kid has become the symbol for the Ferrari season. Je suis le garçon Ferrari en train de pleurer