Auto-Motor-und-Sport's (AMuS) analysis of Winter Testing is in, and clears up a little why perhaps Ferrari could be finding themselves in position 3.
https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... ite-woche/
Translation by me:
We analyzed the two testing weeks in Barcelona and come to the following conclusion:
1.) Mercedes
2.) Red Bull-Renault
3.) Ferrari
4.) HaasF1-Ferrari
5.) Renault
6.) Toro Rosso-Honda
7.) McLaren-Renault
8.) Force India-Mercedes
9.) Williams-Mercedes
10.) Sauber-Ferrari
Mercedes
Mercedes didn't attempt any qualy runs. They only stood at the top of the timesheets on day 4. The championship wining team didn't even bring hyperssoft tires to the winter-test. And the Mercedes never did any low fuel runs. In the standings over the 8 winter testing days, the best times by Hamilton and Bottas were for rank 8 and 10. Hamilton was with a timed-best of 1:18.400 1.3 seconds slower than the best time Ferrari did. Despite this, it looks like Mercedes will be heading to Melbourne as clear favorites. The race simulations are the true indicator of performance and here Bottas and Hamilton were around a second per lap quicker than their competitors under similar conditions.
Bottes tried to downplay expectations a little: "We are surely not a second quicker than the rest. We completed our testing program already on day 7, so day 8 was a bonus for us. It wouldn't have made any sense to compete for best-times. We know what our car is capable of.". Lewis explained that he couldn't find the erratic behaviour from last years car. "But we are still getting to learn the traits of this new car. Things worked great in Barcelona, but it doesn't have to mean this will apply to other tracks too".
The minor worry that the drivers and engineers will take from Barcelona is the blistering of the rear tires. Bottas said: "We didn't solve the problem, but we were able to minimise it. We believe that the others will have had similar problems when attacking with these softer tires on this circuit."
Red-Bull
Similar like Mercedes, Redbull didn't join in with competing for best times. Despite this, we see last years 3rd best team at this time as the team in position 2. GPS-Data shows that the RB14 is as quick as the Mercedes in the corners. It all depends now how much power Renault can still unleash with their engine. For the last two test-days, Renault unlocked some performance of their engine with another identical improvement expected for Melbourne, if Renault deems it reliable enough. The turbo-damage that McLaren suffered on the last day of testing could mean that this improvement may be delayed to a later point though.
RedBull chief Helmut Marko believes: "We have the better chassis than Mercedes. The difference lies in the engine". Technical-chief Adrian Newey suspects that the competition still burns way more oil than Renault. "Our oil usage over 100km is at 0.1l. Both Mercedes and Ferrari use the limit at 0.6l." How big the gap is to the best is difficult to assess. Some seem to think between 3 and 5 tenths per lap. In the long runs (race sim), RedBull were driving at a similar pace to Ferrari, which would be quite a bit off what Mercedes was showing too. Renault was also saving fuel. More than Mercedes but less than Ferrari. The problem could reoccur in Melbourne.
Ferrari
Ferrari achieved the best time on 4 testing days. Sebastian Vettel marked the best time with a 1:17.182. Ferrari also worked flawless and did 849 laps without any big issues. Despite all this, there was little reason to be euphoric. Vettels best time is not worth much if Mercedes had attempted to break it. We suspect that even RedBull could have broken it. Even Ferrari customer Haas was only 2 tenths slower. That isn't enough if you want to be world champions. Vettel concluded the two weeks of testing with "There are still some riddles that we need to understand". The wording is rather worrying, as it would imply they still need to understand some issues and are poking around in the dark.
According to GPS-data, the Ferrari are especially losing time in the corners. Track side observers saw that the Ferrari is inclined to lock up under breaking and that the drivers often used strange driving lines. Ex-driver Pedro de la Rosa concluded after observing T1, T2 and T3 that "Mercedes and RedBull corner very well and more stable than the Ferrari". But what could be the issue with the SF71H? Is it the 7cm longer wheelbase? The HaasF1 has that too. Maybe Ferrari traded-off some aerodynamic efficiency for a bit less drag and a higher top-speed. One of the goals from last year was that they wanted to be more competitive at the high-speed tracks. That wouldn't be ideal for a track like Barcelona which is high downforce and which might explain some of their issues.
Haas F1 (shortened)
The American Ferrari team may be the big surprise in 2018. Both Renault and Mclaren see Haas in position 4 currently. Chief Günther Steiner is careful: "Position 4 would be an optimistic conclusion". Magnuses quoted "The balance of the car is very good. It's easy to drive and to set-up".
Renault (shortened)
After a very good end to the first week Renault already saw itself in position 4. Meanwhile, they conclude that HaasF1 and McLaren look quite good. Hulkenberg confirmed this by saying that he felt the balance was missing in the second testing week. Some of the issues are related to spare parts. Renault hopes to make this up with a better development rate [than Haas].
McLaren (shortened)
The quick laps by Alonso on the last day of testing came as a big positive surprise and puts them probably ahead of Torro-Rosso. The speed is there. Even if the car was loaded with 20kg of fuel, you still need to do those times. But reliability could still be a concern. The car stopped on track 6 times. Eric Boullier conceded that they gave their aerodynamicists too much freedom. "The whole concept evolves around being able to optimize our aerodynamic platform. It could well be that we went a bit over the limit here and there. But we have a lot of catching up to do and therefore, we needed to take a few risks".
Torro-Rosso-Honda (shortened)
Torro Rosso achieved over 8 days 819 laps or 3812 km. That is very respectabkle and almost as good as Ferrari. Apparently Honda used 3 different engine specifications in the first week to find the best one. That one was then used in week 2. It stayed in the car for the entire 2nd week and is proof that Honda has gotten better. Even the performance of the engine seems to be there, reaching top-speeds of 324kmh. At the moment, Torro-Rosso may even look like a serious contender for position 4.
DISCLAIMER: Sorry for the rough translation in parts. Tried to smooth it out a bit, but some of the stuff or how the german article is written are a bit difficult to translate word-for-word. And I am have run out of time to do the other teams, but I hope I covered the most interesting aspects of the top 6 teams. Ugh, my fingers hurt now.
