Silly Season 2018/2019

[Phil]

I know. I was more assuming Hamilton ending his F1 career. I dont believe he will, as he has indicated that whatever deal he’ll make now will be the one that will take him to the end of his f1 career, but you never know.

[hemichromis]

If Mercedes believe Hamilton will quit in the next 2 years they should get a driver who can take over as No 1.
I wonder if Hamilton is asking for a short contract as he seems to always have one eye on things other than F1.

I look forward to hearing some concrete news about any of these contracts

[ScottB]

....It would be interesting though to speculate what Mercedes will do if they cant get Hamilton to resign and how that cascades into other drivers for both seats...

Interesting to speculate, but HAM is a Mercedes boy. He started his career with them, and he'll finish his career with them.

The 2019 driver line-up is based on the movements of RIC and BOT and RAI. Everything else is just a consequence

Apparently DC thinks Hamilton will quit in 2020, so at best two more seasons of him potentially.

Whether that's true or not I don't know, but it's certainly plausible. Hamilton clearly has aspirations for his post F1 life, and seems quite possible that at some point he could well decide he's had enough and want out. To me, it'd be smart long term planning to hire the one guy who is available who could be a viable replacement, as an insurance policy if nothing else.

Plus Danny is the only 'top' driver that's likely to be available in the coming few years, with Max and Vettel tied down long term, and none of the other young guns yet showing that level of potential, Mercedes risk is that, post Hamilton, they don't have a top level driver to take his place.

[FrukostScones]

ROS HAM in Ferrari would be GOAT.

[Manoah2u]

You do know Rosberg is long gone from F1, right? do you even watch?

As for Hamilton's retirement possibilities: i do believe that's becoming more and more believable.
3 years ago that was different, but he then had this Mercedes spree, and batteling with Rosberg kept his motivation up, and kept it exciting.

instead now, he has achieved his dream; Senna's titles, poles, etc.etc.etc.. Obviously, as that was his goal, his motivation for more is now entirely up for grabs.
On top of that, he does not have a teammate that pushes him, so he really doesn't get any motivational boost. He really doesn't care much about Vettel,
so i can see him get bored pretty fast. If any, it's between him and Vettel now to get the 5th title. If Hamilton wins that one, and i do think he will,
then what's left for him?

Ferrari might be interesting, but only because it's Ferrari and quite frankly, what are his goals? i think Danny has a much bigger hunger and goal and as such,
it would be wiser for FER to get him over hamilton, also HAM demands insane paycheck.

lastly indeed, his interst is elsewhere. Rap, Music, Fashion, whatever. MotoGP perhaps? and he might also fancy a go at Indy, LeMans, etc.
this is the time to do it, he's still on a high relatively speaking.

So yeah, Hamilton retiring seems very plausible to me. So who will Mercedes replace him with? he was their 'golden boy' and Rosberg was another great opportunity.
Vettel also has got his spree with RB and now with Ferrari, i don't believe he has any motivation the kind Merc would want.

Wehrlein was a disappointment - perhaps the crash @ ROC damaged him though - and OCON seems their future protegé.
outside of that, who?

Again Alonso is still in the window. But 2 years from now, that ship will have sailed to invest in. Bottas is a number 2, and not even near Jenson's capabilties, nor his motivation.
Sainz could be interesting, but i just don't see the fit so much honestly.

I think Mercedes as a team will find itself in a less advantageous situation after 2020.

[Just_a_fan]

If any, it's between him and Vettel now to get the 5th title. If Hamilton wins that one, and i do think he will,
then what's left for him?

That's easy. If he wins this year, he'll take another 2 year deal with Mercedes and hope to match Michael's 7 title record. That's a huge motivation. Even if he fails to match Michael, he'll want to ensure he leaves F1 with a record that can't be matched for a few years. Vettel and he are likely to retire at the same time, give or take a season - being "the best since Schumacher" would sit well with both and neither would want the other to be that man. Being the best ever - in terms of stats at least - is motivation for every racing driver.

To say that Hamilton has no motivation is silly - he wouldn't be fighting for wins and pushing the team to improve if he didn't care/was unmotivated.

As for Alonso - he will retire from F1 where he is now. No top team is going to take him on for two seasons when they have other title winners in the team. In two years, Alonso will be retiring from F1. Perhaps he'll go on to other series such as Indy or LMP.

[Fulcrum]

Probably a bit unrealistic, but I could see Mercedes co-ordinating their exit from Formula 1 to coincide with Hamilton's. There are a number of factors that might influence this decision though:

- The removal of the MGU-H from the 2021 regulations. Mercedes came out strongly against this change. They would be in favour of increasing engine efficiency technologies, not removing them.
- The general 'trend' towards standardisation of parts, which has been hinted at, or suggested occasionally. Mercedes would likely prefer less standardisation.
- Similarly, the introduction of budget caps. Mercedes have spoken out against this practice on several occasions.
- Increased competition. The field has been narrowing every year since 2014 (generally). Will the Mercedes board approve spend if they no longer continue to win championships?
- Objectives achieved. The F1 team have been running at break-even since 2014, not including the huge amount of publicity and brand awareness they have raised by winning the F1 championships so dominantly. Mercedes might consider the end of 2020 and opportune moment to exit the sport.
- Management turnover. The core of Andy Cowell, Niki Lauda and Toto Wolff will likely have run their course by then. Lauda will be over 70, Wolff close to 50. I'm sure Wolff would love to cash out his shares were a buyer to materialise.
- Hamilton retires at the end of the 2020 season. He'd be 35, not the oldest to retire, certainly not the youngest either. Finding a replacement is basically impossible, you certainly wouldn't be able to find a like-for-like replacement.

One significant point against this argument is the potential for teams to turn profits, based on new redistribution of monies from Liberty, increased revenue from the US (if it materialises), increased revenue from OTT streaming (if it materialises), etc... Of course, these are hypothetical profits. Small money for Mercedes, so it might not make much difference in the end.

Historically, manufacturers do not stick around. Once they've achieved what they want - generally a return on investment - or not - e.g. Toyota - boards simply cut the cord. Ultimately, manufacturers have no loyalty to the sport.

I haven't listed a financial crisis as a factor because I can't predict such things, but that would certainly contribute to any decision.

[Just_a_fan]

One significant point against this argument is the potential for teams to turn profits, based on new redistribution of monies from Liberty, increased revenue from the US (if it materialises), increased revenue from OTT streaming (if it materialises), etc... Of course, these are hypothetical profits. Small money for Mercedes, so it might not make much difference in the end.

If Trump's suggestion of a big tariff on German cars materialises, I would think that Mercedes won't be too worried about the US revenue. They'd probably favour more races in non-US places instead.

[Manoah2u]

Yeah, that thought crossed my mind too - Mercedes 'returning' to their former stance in being a engine supplier.
They might even re-sign with Mclaren and bring back those 'glory' days.

Interestingly - if i'm not mistaken, Aston Martin has (good) relationship with (AMG) Mercedes.
They have been vocal about interest in either their own engine or becoming a full-fledged F1 team, 2021 with the new engine formula
would make that an opportunity. With Honda likely pairing up with RedBull as of 2019,
that would provide the possiblity of seeing Aston Martin part with RedBull, and RedBull intensifying Honda relationships,

AMG Mercedes then becoming:

Aston Martin F1 Team - (powered by) AMG Mercedes

RB becoming:

Honda RedBull Racing Team - (powered by) Honda

that could actually see Max Verstappen go to 'Mercedes' in that sense, if RB doesn't provide a winning car soon.
After all, he's with RedBull now, serving a contract, RB has good bond with Aston Martin right now, and they're driving Aston Martin cars,

so it's not unbelievable to see them making an offer to the very potential 'star' driver Max Verstappen to be a Aston Martin NR1 driver,
alongside whomever is there.

would be especially intersting to see Max Verstappen and Ocon together there.

Who would fill the void of Max @ RedBull then?
Assuming Ricciardo is long gone to Ferrari, that would have to be Gasly and Sainz i'd recon.

Norris and Bottas at Mclaren.

[Fulcrum]

One significant point against this argument is the potential for teams to turn profits, based on new redistribution of monies from Liberty, increased revenue from the US (if it materialises), increased revenue from OTT streaming (if it materialises), etc... Of course, these are hypothetical profits. Small money for Mercedes, so it might not make much difference in the end.

If Trump's suggestion of a big tariff on German cars materialises, I would think that Mercedes won't be too worried about the US revenue. They'd probably favour more races in non-US places instead.

I was referring to revenue in the form of TV rights, viewership and so forth; i.e. things that impact F1 directly, not car sales.

[Just_a_fan]

One significant point against this argument is the potential for teams to turn profits, based on new redistribution of monies from Liberty, increased revenue from the US (if it materialises), increased revenue from OTT streaming (if it materialises), etc... Of course, these are hypothetical profits. Small money for Mercedes, so it might not make much difference in the end.

If Trump's suggestion of a big tariff on German cars materialises, I would think that Mercedes won't be too worried about the US revenue. They'd probably favour more races in non-US places instead.

I was referring to revenue in the form of TV rights, viewership and so forth; i.e. things that impact F1 directly, not car sales.

Mercedes are only in F1 to use it as a shop window to raise brand awareness and sell cars. Given the choice between TV revenues in the US (where they might have little market available if tariffs are applied) or elsewhere where their cars can be sold [relatively] tariff free, where would they rather go? TV revenues are probably less than car market revenues in most countries.

[FrukostScones]

You do know Rosberg is long gone from F1, right? do you even watch?

...

You probably never heard of Niki Lauda...
Don't address me if all you have to say is disrespecful tosh.

[Fulcrum]

If Trump's suggestion of a big tariff on German cars materialises, I would think that Mercedes won't be too worried about the US revenue. They'd probably favour more races in non-US places instead.

I was referring to revenue in the form of TV rights, viewership and so forth; i.e. things that impact F1 directly, not car sales.

Mercedes are only in F1 to use it as a shop window to raise brand awareness and sell cars. Given the choice between TV revenues in the US (where they might have little market available if tariffs are applied) or elsewhere where their cars can be sold [relatively] tariff free, where would they rather go? TV revenues are probably less than car market revenues in most countries.

Which is why I suggested:

Once they've achieved what they want - generally a return on investment - or not - e.g. Toyota - boards simply cut the cord.

Mercedes ROI from F1 has likely been positive up to now. 'New' tech investment, a free marketing campaign; better technology for their road cars, better brand awareness, more sales. By 2020, all of the benefits will have plateaud, with or without Trump tariffs, with or without continued dominance in the sport.

There are several factors likely to swing toward the negative (quitting F1), which was basically all I was getting at; Trump tariffs being one I had not listed. A more profitable sport, in general, would not be one of those factors, but it probably wouldn't outweigh the influence of a tariff - if imposed.

[Manoah2u]

You do know Rosberg is long gone from F1, right? do you even watch?

...

You probably never heard of Niki Lauda...
Don't address me if all you have to say is disrespecful tosh.

what on earth are you talking about.
i'll adress whatever i want in an open board.

you bring up Rosberg and Hamilton @ Ferrari.
that makes zero sense with a retired Rosberg whom has zero intention of returning to F1,
especially alongside former archrival Hamilton.

Such a rather curious statement obviously raises some questions.

But be my guest, show me a link where Niki Lauda makes such a bold claim.

[rscsr]

You do know Rosberg is long gone from F1, right? do you even watch?

...

You probably never heard of Niki Lauda...
Don't address me if all you have to say is disrespecful tosh.

what on earth are you talking about.
i'll adress whatever i want in an open board.

you bring up Rosberg and Hamilton @ Ferrari.
that makes zero sense with a retired Rosberg whom has zero intention of returning to F1,
especially alongside former archrival Hamilton.

Such a rather curious statement obviously raises some questions.

But be my guest, show me a link where Niki Lauda makes such a bold claim.

he means that Lauda "retired" after the 1979 season and made a comeback for the 1982 season.