LHamilton wrote: ↑09 May 2021, 06:20
Russell jumps into a Mercedes and qualifies there or thereabouts with Bottas in Sahkir, in a car that is to small for him. Russell complained about parts being sore, but still was able to put a competitive lap in. Hamilton was ill in qualifying for the German GP 2019, but managed to stick it on pole despite that. Roughly .350 to second and third place. Perez has "a bit" of shoulder pain and qualifies 9 tenths behind his teammate in his fourth race in the team, with testing included as well. I'm not buying that this shoulder thing is a big reason as to why he is 9 tenths off. He was struggling all weekend by the looks of it in the practice sessions.
I'll give him that some things worked against him. Second run was generally a bit slower than the first and some parts of that pain he had might've had some influence on him. So ideally, he would've probably been fourth given the time difference between the top two cars and the other field. So maybe in the realms of 0,5-0,7 off Verstappen. He was often something like 0,8 off in the quali runs in the practice sessions, so I even give him the benefit of doubt that he improves himself from practice to qualy. But I guess the excuses will come thick and fast. After the race he will say that his race was compromised due to being in traffic, and next race in Monaco (if things still doesn't go his way) he will say that he hasn't had a clean weekend yet, and that he needs time. Wasn't time on of the factors as to why Perez was chosen? So that the bedding-in-time would be a lot smaller than the less experience ones (i.e Albon).
This was for me the race where the 'newer' guys became more comfortable in their cars, because the next two races are both street circuits with one being Monaco. So things aren't to get any easier. After Baku we have Turkey, which might still be struggling with grip issues due to the new resurface. So that might also be tricky. And that's almost a third of the calendar.
Sainz seems to have slotted in nice at Ferrari. Been competitive from testing onwards. Alonso has been away from the sport for two years, so I would give him more time than the others. Don't really know what happend in Q3, but looked overall in the weekend to have edged closer to Ocon. Ricciardo looks closer to Norris this weekend. Vettel seems like he generally hasn't. So that would probably lean towards that most of the newer guys have made steps bar Vettel and Perez, who ironically is probably the guys you expected to be on top of things the quickest to due their experience levels. Hopefully for their sake the race will give them enough information to take it into the next rounds which will be tough.
In regards to the race, I'm looking forward to the strategy aspect. I'm not sure we will see a whole lot of overtaking, but it just might be interesting from the tyre situation and the fact that the tyres aren't getting to much rest given the new turn 10. On top of that we might see some difference in tyre selection given that Ferrari seemlingly don't liken the medium tyre too much. I'm expecting a Hamilton win here. I think they just might have the superior tyre management thus far, and that will be key. Verstappen I feel must jump Hamilton at the start to have any chance at the win, especially since he seems to be on his own against the two Mercs. In terms of the battle behind the podium, it's really hard to say. So close that it just might come to what tyres are used on which cars.
The reality is that we have seen the struggle of the second seat AGAIN! Let's not forget Albon also had a decent ousting initially in the team. Right after they dropped Gasly. The factor to consider here, is actually how MUCH better is the car this year both in comparison with the Grid and with Mercedes. Not only that, Sergio is not Albon or Gasly. He's about three levels above. Then you factor in the years of experience and the picture paints itself really. Why is it now for some people so hard to both accept and realise that despite all the talk the entire team revolves around Max. I'm talking car development and set-up.
If you ask me, this is the year the Bulls can do it ( with a big "if" ), or at least get as close to it as possible.
Going back to Sergio, there are a million factors to take into consideration, but as far as i can see this is driver number 3 in the second car ( Gasly/Albon/Perez) that has the same behaviour, the same layout of performances, the same results at the end. I know that Max wasn't outqualified since Ricc, but like i said, you can factor in Sergio's experience there. When it comes to Sunday's though, the reality speaks volumes.
In regards to this race, unless Max gets ahead of Hamilton at start it's Merc 3 - RedBull 1. It's as simple as that.
PS: Remember the start of 2019? I can smell the same thing here. As well as, Merc hasn't upgraded their car yet. That's when things will get funny for real. If they can close the gap, just by understanding, it will be a different ball game when they properly invest in it.
