2023 Aston Martin | Aramco | Cognizant F1 Team

[KimiRai]

Great pitstops lately.

[KimiRai]

Fernando Alonso: “But I think it’s more up to us to understand why at certain circuits we seem to struggle more than the others and in a way we know beforehand and that’s the most frustrating thing.”

Lewis Hamilton: “It’s confusing for us to have such strong performances one day and then be nowhere the next. But when you really care about what you’re doing you brush it off and keep fighting!”

Aston's not the only one who has swings of performance. Even Red Bull do but they're so far ahead it's not as noticeable.

[diffuser]

I Agree Miami was an error. Monaco, I disagree. If it had stopped raining, people would have said, "Oh what a great strategy". Strategy isn't checking the weather forcast.

If it stopped raining, they would've finished exactly where they did anyway because they already had a pit stop gap to Ocon. Which is why it was an obvious call. Strategy is evaluating the risk reward matrix in real time and making optimal decisions. Here they were presented with no risk and highest reward possible scenario and they botched it. Even if there was a scenario where they could've lost 2nd place to gamble for a race win, I would go for it. For a guy like Fernando, he may not get that opportunity ever again. There's only maybe 1 or 2 races a season which has a fluke winner.

So Max pitted on the next lap and narrowly escaped disaster. If someone was closer to him on inters or the collision with the wall harder it could have caused damage and he could have been done for. So we both agree, the timing was right with the pit stop. Although, by the time Max pitted, it was obviously inters weather.

Now as far as the tire choice, the conversation between the engineer and Alonso the deciding factor was their weather forcast saying it was gonna stop raining. Why would put on inters if you know it's gonna stop raining?

We know weather forecasts and we know they never say black or white. They always deal in ranges of Grey(ie 45%, 50%, 55% etc chance of rain). I think you're getting caught up on a flip of coin decision

[diffuser]

Great pitstops lately.

Sure the double Stacking for AMR cost them time as well. Stroll was right behind Alonso. You add 2.something time to Stroll's pit-stop while waits for Alonso to get serviced.

[KimiRai]

Radio comment during the first stint with the Hards: "Little bit understeer [in] high speed but then the rest is oversteer"




Radio when the VSC came out:

Cronin: Virtual safety car, virtual. Stay out please, stay out.
Cronin: You can go to...
Alonso: Sure?
[several seconds]
Cronin: Pit! Box! Stay out!
Cronin: That's okay mate, that's okay.

[diffuser]

.
Radio comment during the first stint with the Hards: "Little bit understeer [in] high speed but then the rest is oversteer"

https://i.imgur.com/YSwDHVE.png


Radio when the VSC came out:

Cronin: Virtual safety car, virtual. Stay out please, stay out.
Cronin: You can go to...
Alonso: Sure?
[several seconds]
Cronin: Pit! Box! Stay out!
Cronin: That's okay mate, that's okay.

ok what's your point?

[KimiRai]

ok what's your point?

There was confusion at the entry of both pitstops, the vsc one and the next one as well where he had to wait another lap. He told the team to not call him that late. Someone else I think said the mediums seemed better for the car and he's right. Not much more.

[diffuser]

ok what's your point?

There was confusion at the entry of both pitstops, the vsc one and the next one as well where he had to wait another lap. He told the team to not call him that late. Someone else I think said the mediums seemed better for the car and he's right. Not much more.

yeah, that was me. He didn't have the oversteer underteer issues after he went to the Mediums. That being said, after the race he said the Balance was "OK". I've notice though that Alonso answers post race don't match up with what he's said in the cockpit during the race.

[AR3-GP]

ok what's your point?

There was confusion at the entry of both pitstops, the vsc one and the next one as well where he had to wait another lap. He told the team to not call him that late. Someone else I think said the mediums seemed better for the car and he's right. Not much more.

yeah, that was me. He didn't have the oversteer underteer issues after he went to the Mediums. That being said, after the race he said the Balance was "OK". I've notice though that Alonso answers post race don't match up with what he's said in the cockpit during the race.

Interesting. It was the opposite in Canada. Car was a struggle on mediums, but really well balanced on the hards.

The C3-C5 was used in both Canada and Austria.

[Bisonas]

I Agree Miami was an error. Monaco, I disagree. If it had stopped raining, people would have said, "Oh what a great strategy". Strategy isn't checking the weather forcast.

If it stopped raining, they would've finished exactly where they did anyway because they already had a pit stop gap to Ocon. Which is why it was an obvious call. Strategy is evaluating the risk reward matrix in real time and making optimal decisions. Here they were presented with no risk and highest reward possible scenario and they botched it. Even if there was a scenario where they could've lost 2nd place to gamble for a race win, I would go for it. For a guy like Fernando, he may not get that opportunity ever again. There's only maybe 1 or 2 races a season which has a fluke winner.

So Max pitted on the next lap and narrowly escaped disaster. If someone was closer to him on inters or the collision with the wall harder it could have caused damage and he could have been done for. So we both agree, the timing was right with the pit stop. Although, by the time Max pitted, it was obviously inters weather.

Now as far as the tire choice, the conversation between the engineer and Alonso the deciding factor was their weather forcast saying it was gonna stop raining. Why would put on inters if you know it's gonna stop raining?

We know weather forecasts and we know they never say black or white. They always deal in ranges of Grey(ie 45%, 50%, 55% etc chance of rain). I think you're getting caught up on a flip of coin decision

It's well analyzed, even by AMR, that the pit timing was perfect but the tire choice (with hindsight) was wrong.
Now if you want to blame the whether forecast, as AMR did, again, that doesn't absolve them of blame.
After all it's their fault for having an inaccurate forecast, while others obviously (with AMRs logic) had a more accurate one and at the end, it's their choice. Team choice. Weather forecast is only one variable. Other viarables and other data where in play also.
Now, let's put some logic into this.
Even if, let's say everybody had the same forecast with a 50/50 chance of rain stopping or not.
1st) We are talking about Monaco. Running around on a wet and then damp track with slicks, hopping for the rain to stop and then dry out, is dangerous and risky. If they wanted to play safe, going intermediate first, re evaluating and making a second stop for slicks if necessary was the safest bet. They had the margin to do it without compromising 2nd place. And they had Intermediate runners already on track.
2nd) As i said they had intermediate runners running around and they had data to analyze. They knew what gains to expect from a new set of Inters and they had the margin to pit again if necessary.
3rd) They pitted first, compared to Verstappen, so Verstappen could just copy the move if he wanted. Meaning that putting slicks was not some magical inspirational move that RBR wouldn't be able to counter in the race. That's another reason to play it safe, and put inters, do 1-3 laps on them and re evaluate. You know Inters are faster at that point. Even if inters remain the faster tire for only 1,2 or 3 laps, going Inters first is the obvious and safest choice, even if the forecast is 50%/50%.

Both AMR and RBR did strategic mistakes on that race. They can blame what ever they want, but mistakes where made by both. AMR for choosing the wrong tire and RBR for bringing VER in, at least one lap l8r from what they should have. I do agree with Horner that AMR had RBR on the robes, forcing them to take big risks in the race. If VER had put it on the wall on his in lap we would be talking about how AMR pushed RBR to take unnecessary risks, that cost them a DNF.
RBR was a bit lucky in Monaco and AMR had a real chance to win it if they had gone for inters.
Those are not just assumptions. Those by now are facts, after putting hindsight into the analysis.
I am not saying they would win it for sure, i don't have a crystal ball, but the chance was there (to end up ahead of VER) and they missed it.

I am not criticizing the team in a bad way. I am aware of the complexity of such decisions. But i am also aware that in order to improve the decision making process first you need to acknowledge your bad decisions and then analyze them. Just blaming the weather forecast is not helping. As i said, other variables where in play also at that point. It was not just the weather.

[diffuser]

There was confusion at the entry of both pitstops, the vsc one and the next one as well where he had to wait another lap. He told the team to not call him that late. Someone else I think said the mediums seemed better for the car and he's right. Not much more.

yeah, that was me. He didn't have the oversteer underteer issues after he went to the Mediums. That being said, after the race he said the Balance was "OK". I've notice though that Alonso answers post race don't match up with what he's said in the cockpit during the race.

Interesting. It was the opposite in Canada. Car was a struggle on mediums, but really well balanced on the hards.

The C3-C5 was used in both Canada and Austria.

Think both races had gusty wind, maybe it had more to do with that than the tires or balance?

[Sevach]

Silverstone, Hungary have long corners.. if this really is a weakness of the car it could be a tricky few races

Hungary is a "very balanced diet", it has a little of everything, i think they are gonna be competing for best of the rest there.
Silverstone might be a weekend of mediocrity however.
Spa and Suzuka not that great either.

[KimiRai]

Those halo bits tested in Spain haven't appeared again. Was it that they didn't work as hoped? The million dollar question of the halo bits enigma...

[NAPI10]

There was talk of a few upgrades at Silverstone; any news on the same?

[selvam_e2002]

New Tyre from Silverstone-UK. will help AMR? or it is going to to disaster.

Also who is going to get benefit with new tyre?

If RB slow they may cry. They already crying for 2026 engine rule.