Sayeman wrote: ↑30 Aug 2017, 16:17
Mclaren just doesn't want a divorce, they want a divorce and another 200 million dough from Honda to pay for Renault engines for the next 2-3 years. Laughable really, you berate your business partner every day and then expect him to butter you up with bunch of money when you kick him out of f1.
This.
I've been trying to wrap my head around this for a while now. Honda is paying a lot of money to McLaren. Not only that, but they are also making up for the losses in sponsorship, they are paying a large part of the driver salaries (Alonso's) and they are supplying the free engines. It's nearly like a blank check, with the tiny disadvantage that the engine is the weak link and preventing the team to actually score.
If we assume McLaren and Honda part ways by mutual agreement (e.g. neither will have to pay the other damages), McLaren is left in an arguably worse state than before Honda entered. Their image has suffered as a result of non-existing results and progress, still not a major sponsor to be found. Then they would need to cover the expenses of retaining Alonso and Stoffel as well as also financing engines. From receiving +100M to invest into all sorts of areas and build a better car, suddenly they'd be faced with spending ~+70M (engines+Alonso). That's a mighty swing and I'm just speculating with very moderate numbers here. I'd imagine Honda to be paying quite a bit more currently.
If you ask me, it can't work. McLaren would have to make huge compromises. Could they even afford to retain Alonso?
So termination by mutual agreement doesn't exactly work. This is where it gets tricky. Whoever breaches the contract would probably have to pay large amounts of money to the other. If McLaren terminates the contract one-sided, they'd have to pay Honda. Imagine the situation Honda would be in: Having invested millions into them re-entering F1 only to be shown the door without reaching anything? Not left with a single other team to supply and stay within the sport? You can bet that they wouldn't like this.
On the other hand, if Honda terminates the agreement, money would obviously have to flow in the other direction to cover the "damage". I would imagine this sum of money to be quite substantial - enough for McLaren to bridge the cost to pay for a deal with a different engine manufacturer (Renault), pay for Alonso and keep their technical staff and facilities for maybe 1 or 2 years before another sponsor would need to step in to foot some of those costs. Either way, it's a high stakes game. They need results.
This is probably the reason why McLaren is adamant race in and race out to showing the world that they are doing everything right, while Honda is doing every wrong. Publicly humiliating your partner and mobbing them out of the sport in other words, until some day, Honda just has enough and walks away, willingly paying McLaren for their damages and expenses. Or that would be (must be) the plan.
Alonso is probably one of the pawns who is willingly playing along. Which may be good for McLaren (if the grand master plan works out), but I still retain it can't be good for Alonso's image. Alonso (just as any driver), like it or not, is expendable. And it might backfire too.
If McLaren fail to mob Honda into leaving, they're pretty much stuck with them. I could well imagine a point that Honda could basically force Alonso out (if he doesn't leave by himself).
On the Sky Spa report show, Will Paxton mentioned that there could be an opening at Indy for a regular seat and could give Fernando a good opportunity to leave F1 for at least a year. As for McLaren... well, personally, I think their best bet is to stay with Honda. At some point, they will improve surely and as Schuttelberg mentioned, I agree that they have made strides this year. With the clamp down on burning oil etc, it's only a matter of time until the gap between the engine manufacturers narrow. And with the amount of money Honda has been investing into McLaren, they do have the means to pay for high quality staff, maintain those facilities and build a strong car.
As for Alonso - well, either way, I don't think he'll be in F1 much longer. If McLaren are forced to stick it out with Honda, Alonso will either be eating his words or he'll leave for Indy. If McLaren succeed by mobbing Honda out, the question is if McLaren are keen to retain Alonso for $40M a year. No doubt, Alonso brings a lot of performance to the table, but how crucial is that "performance" if the car is too far behind as a result of a handicapped engine? E.g. how much do i.e. 3 tenths gain you if your car is lagging behind by seconds? Changing engine partners does not seem to be the only factor - they'll also have to design and develop the car to suit that engine. Only the biggest optimist would consider McLaren to be anything close to winning-contenders next year, regardless which engine sits in the back... (IMO)
