Esteban Ocon's future drives

[NathanOlder]

Who was dominant prior to Mercedes?

thats before the biggest rules changes the sport had seen for decades. So its totally irrelevant

Is it? It’s not like RB had lost all their resources..

“Aaaaaaaaaaaaaand it’s gone.”

The V8 Renault had its advantages with the mapping, it worked so well in the RsdBull, they were suddenly down on power massively, and reliability was non existent.

[NathanOlder]

You claimed Max jumped 2 tiers, I assume you were talking Euro F3 to F1.

EuroF3 to F1 is jumping 1 class (F2), which Kvyat and I believe Bottas also did.
From karting to EuroF3 is jumping 2 classes:
1. Formula Ford/regional F4
2. European Formula Renault and regional F3

Yeah Bottas Kvyat Stroll ect as I mentioned earlier and you obviously didnt see.

So if Jumping classes makes a driver better, Kimi puts Max to shame, and as Lewis took pretty much every step and had 2 goes at pretty much all of ot, does that mean he's not so good?

Well done Max for skipping 2 tiers

[Pyrone89]

You claimed Max jumped 2 tiers, I assume you were talking Euro F3 to F1.

EuroF3 to F1 is jumping 1 class (F2), which Kvyat and I believe Bottas also did.
From karting to EuroF3 is jumping 2 classes:
1. Formula Ford/regional F4
2. European Formula Renault and regional F3

Yeah Bottas Kvyat Stroll ect as I mentioned earlier and you obviously didnt see.

So if Jumping classes makes a driver better, Kimi puts Max to shame, and as Lewis took pretty much every step and had 2 goes at pretty much all of ot, does that mean he's not so good?

Well done Max for skipping 2 tiers

I saw it, but it was not relevant as I was talking about the step from karting to EuroF3, not to F1. This can be seen when reading the post better.
1. Yes, Kimi did it even more extreme, he is a world champion now
2. No it doesnt mean you are a worse driver. Leclerc and Hamilton however dominated every step they took up the ladder, which is different.
3. As Vandoorne show junior category success is by no means a perfect indicator of F1 success. Also Michael Schumacher did not have the most stellar junior career.

The main question however was why RB in 2014 and my previous post explains it from the then available perspective. Hindsight is always nice to have.

[NathanOlder]

I think the main question is in fact where will Ocon end up

I still think Mercedes nect season alongside Lewis.

[Pyrone89]

Would be a weird move from Merc.

1. Bottas is literally being the perfect nr.2
2. Ocon’s tendency to crash with teammates
3. Bottas has outqualified Hamilton on a large number of occassions, Ocon had a hard time with Perez who is know more for his race skills than quali pace. This in an age in which qualifying is vital, especially in the top grid slots (in the midfield you can profit from the fellow midfielders who made Q3 and have to start on the softs, in the top teams they can run Q2 on the preffered compound so no benefitting from free spots due to tyre strategy).
4. If they are serious about hiring MV when Hamilton retires or goes to Ferrari, his history with Ocon becomes an obstacle.
5. They surely would like to know first if he is better than Russell or not (and judge how good Russell actually is as he has no real benchmark), and the main team is not the place to do that experiment.
6.There are talks about the board wanting an German driver. MV isnt German either but at least speaks fluent German.
7. He has been out of a race car for over a year. Surely if they want him in the championship challenging team they would have made a bigger effort money wise to buy him a seat this year (KUB place, also to benchmark Russell with him)

[NathanOlder]

He's only been gone 7 months, not over a year? Plus he's been in the Merc garage at almost every race, learning, watching, studying. Bottas has been on these 1yr extensions so its not like Merc see him as a future champion, Ocon has the potential. A year alongside Lewis, then in 2021, Ocon for the title. Russell in to replace the departing Lewis.

Ocons current position means he will bite their hands of for a number 2 status alongside Lewis to help Lewis get to number 7 which everyone at Merc will want.

If they could guarantee Max, then that changes things, but they can't guarantee it. RedBull are on the up, and Ferrari could always poach him.

[nzjrs]

I think Toto has himself in an awkward position as Bottas manager.

I think Bottas would be a perfect #2 at Ferrari.

If Vettel retires I could see Bottas at Ferarri and Ocon at Merc.

If he doesnt retire then I think Bottas will stay.

I could imagine Toto is trying to get the Liberty job so he has an "out of my hands" defence if they take Ocon and just drop Bottas.

[marmer]

Last season I could see why they would drop bottas but I really don't see how this season you could drop him. He is competitive with Hamilton and thru have battles on track without hitting.
Regardless of how good ocon might be while you have Hamilton in the form of his life gobbling up championships having a known quality in bottas to pick up the wins when Hamilton doesn't is all you need. Why risk a change when you might be able to farm ocon somewhere else next year

[Pyrone89]

He's only been gone 7 months, not over a year? Plus he's been in the Merc garage at almost every race, learning, watching, studying. Bottas has been on these 1yr extensions so its not like Merc see him as a future champion, Ocon has the potential. A year alongside Lewis, then in 2021, Ocon for the title. Russell in to replace the departing Lewis.

Ocons current position means he will bite their hands of for a number 2 status alongside Lewis to help Lewis get to number 7 which everyone at Merc will want.

If they could guarantee Max, then that changes things, but they can't guarantee it. RedBull are on the up, and Ferrari could always poach him.

Accepting nr. 2 in the contract is one thing, not having character trades take over in the heat of battle (for example when he can win his first GP or think he has a championship shot) is another.
There is no point for Merc to take this risk, especially because they also run the risk of alienating future nr. 1 prospects that they target (Max)

[Phil]

I see there are quite a few conclusions drawn over Ocon and his future.

I too, assumed Bottas seat is safe, considering the team harmonics work and he is a strong enough of a driver to pull the consistent performances and points that are required of him.

Yet, there is a but:

Apparently, according to insiders and paddock people, Ocon is rated extremely highly.

“Future WDC material.”

This to me, sounds “better than Bottas”. Possibly at Hamiltons level.

Assuming this is true (this is where i am critical, but lets go with the thesis for a second); Mercedes is faced with 3 options:

1.) place him in Bottas seat 2020 and retain him
2.) find another seat for him
3.) let him go and lose him completely

Lets ignore the first one. Option 2, depends on what Mercedes negotiated with him. Could they retain Ocon if they stuck him in a Williams against Russel? Not sure. Would another team take him for a single year? Doubtful. Alternative would be option 3, but then they possibly would lose him for good, which Mercedes may be unwilling to do if they really rate him that highly.

So we are back to option 1. What’s the worst that could happen if they replace Bottas if this is how they could retain their future star driver?

[Manoah2u]

because they made that contract before and wanted to investigate how it went down, which is normal.
i don't get why you are diving into that 1 year contract so much.

Because if they definitely wanted him to stay, why not offer him a contract as happens with other drivers up and down the grid both now, and historically. If 'Bottas is Wolf's in-house molded 'protogé'' and the 'chemistry works' why not offer him a contract? Why wait two years?

i don't know how you are reading, i also suggesteed you look at the race, if you do, you would have noticed that if vettel hadn't taken out max, he would have ended up P2. that's finishing faster than the mercedes of bottas...you're asking questions you already have the answer for yourself if you actually focused on the race.

I did. Mercedes pulled away easily at the start. Following the Safety Car, they dropped Max by 10 seconds within a handful of laps. That gap grows by, typically, an average of half a second every lap until the Vettel crash. The gap then grows faster, every lap until the end of the race. Bottas stays pretty much at the same distance from Hamilton all the way through the race until he makes his third pitstop. At which point he holds at around 22 seconds.

So, again. Apart from Max being slower every lap and Mercedes pulling a gap easily whenever they needed to and that Bottas would have spent the last part of the Grand Prix on fresher, faster tyres (with track position), what evidence do you have that Max was faster?

where do i claim that. dont accuse me with things you invent from thin air.

I didn't 'accuse you', I asked you to clarify. Note the question mark at the end instead of an unsubstantiated statement followed by insults. Please don't use Strawmen, it undermines your position.

wow, take a chill pill. breathe.

i think you're behaviour here right now is pretty childish to put it mildly, so, really, i don't know what has gotten into you. honestly, i think your reply breaths and shows a very, very aggressive and hostile composure.

calm down.

Hmm, the person politely requesting you leave personal insults at the door is the childish one who is 'very, very aggressive and hostile' and needs to calm down?

You a) continue to avoid any attempt to support your assertions and b) continue to attack me as a result. Thanks for proving my point so clearly and effectively.

you know what, keep living in your dreamworld and think what you want from this reply, i know you'll accuse me from having no substantial response but it seems there is no normal discussion with you possible, so i won't let me get dragged to such a low level again. Have a good one.

[GPR-A]

There are two options for Toto.
One, to continue with Bottas where he is fully aware that Bottas is not the championship material and he can't fight with the likes of Max and Leclerc when they have even cars, which in future might be the case. For as long as Lewis is there, Toto is safe. The problem with this approach is, Toto cannot evaluate what are his best in-house options, before chasing Max or even Leclerc.
Second option is, to let Bottas go and put Ocon in his seat and see if he can show the brilliance of Max or Leclerc, who grabbed their opportunities with both hands. If Ocon proves that he can do what the other two have done, then Toto has hit the jack pot. If that doesn't happen, then he can put Russell in that place and measure.

With both Red Bull and Ferrari having managed to find good internal options, Mercedes can't stop having to explore it for themselves and who knows, may be Ocon might surprise with a good car OR may be Russell would shine and become the next great driver. There is every possibility that, Lewis is going to continue until 2022 with another 2 year extension. So, the next 3 years are a good opportunity for Toto to experiment with the second driver.

[bill shoe]

This interesting discussion comes from Merc having great development drivers (Ocon and Russell) but no good B-team to evaluate them in. As a contrast, last year Red Bull had no good development drivers but an excellent B-team in which to evaluate them. Ocon and Russell should be occupying both seats at either Williams or Racing Point.

As it is, Merc are spending lots of money on Russell without any useful teammate to compare him to, and they are letting Ocon languish for a year without giving him significant driving experience.

[Sieper]

Maybe when Kubica retires (I don't think returning to F1 delivered him what he hoped for) Ocon and Russell can drive alongsides at Williams (next year?). In that way Merc will have real data on who is better. I personally don't feel Russell is worse than Ocon. Merc would have to invest in Williams so that they can become more competitive again and Williams would have to accept that as well of course. So far they have absolutely not been wanting to go down that path.

This would guarantee Hamilton at least one more year beside Bottas (who is doing fine this year) and one more WDC?

RacingPoint has went the Stroll way. Renault might be an option as well, Hulkenberg is not happy and being defeated by Ricciardo.

[Jolle]

I don’t think it’s fair to compare Verstappen his career to this point with Ocon (or how other champions went trough junior ranks). Mercedes has other ideas how to handle and promote their talent then RedBull. Plus, Verstappen has been slightly lucky that the seats opened up at the right time. In 2014 Verstappen had three offers, from Mercedes, Ferrari and RedBull. If he went for the other two, good chance he’ll be in either Leclec’s position now or even been in Ocon’s position, having done F2 and DTM.

Mercedes and Ferrari have a preference for drivers with experience, Ferrari even going so far that they prefer world champions. I remember when Mercedes put Hamilton next to Alonso, the critics thought he was too young and not enough experience and he should do on other team first.