diffuser wrote: ↑08 Dec 2020, 05:04
godlameroso wrote: ↑06 Dec 2020, 02:40
Hammerfist wrote: ↑06 Dec 2020, 02:11
I think we should all calm down from seeing that 0.0052 gap. The Merc hasn't been developped in months. You can guarantee that next year's car is going to be a monster again, even with all the downforce restrictions. They have had so much of a head start working on it. Just like every year really.
How much can they improve for next year? Let's say the engine brings .3, and the downforce is clawed back to late 2019 levels. Meaning they lose .1 from the chassis, or by some miracle break even. The RB chassis is on par, the engine has a tall mountain to climb, it needs to gain .6 to be at Mercedes level for next year. Honda's 2021 engine is the biggest step forward it has ever made, where it's usually .3. Really doubt they found .6 from the engine, combined improvement from engine and chassis has to equal half a second improvement to match what Mercedes will do next year.
A normal improvement will only keep them at bay of Mercedes, an incredible improvement would put them closer, it would take a miracle to overtake them. My bet is on the middle one.
This year's RB16 is half a second faster than it's predecessor at this point in the season and they are still a good .2-.5 per lap behind Mercedes on a normal track.
Merc said they're 2021 is already back to early 2020 levels, if you believe that.
That was an unconfirmed rumour from an unreliable source (Italian Motorsport.com).
Would be hard to believe that you can find 10% of downforce in a few months. Plus, if Mercedes can do it, Red Bull would probably also able to do it, lthough they have less aerodynamicists.
Max is currently 0.4s per lap slower than Ham on a normal circuit. Mercedes has probably found another 0.2-0.3 in the past two months which they haven't put on the car yet as they focused on 2021.
With the Honda engine they could gain maybe 0.1-0.2s over Mercedes engine with ERS improvement (solving clipping), and some other improvements as Mercedes probably will find it a bit more difficult to find gains after this year's major improvements.
Therefore I still think Red Bull will have a 0.5s gap to Mercedes from the start of next year.
Of course I am hoping it will become smaller, but you can't just close a couple of tenths against such a good team as Mercedes.
Some thing RB still needs to improve.
Chicanes - fast change of direction. Currently losing a lot of time against Mercedes. Noticeable in Monza of course, but after aero updates also still visible in chicanes on Nurburgring and Imola - improvements to suspension and attachment of aero
Tyre management - degradation too high - suspension + rear grip, related to chicane issue.
Starts - vibrations with low revs of Honda engine
Clipping - better efficiency of MGU-H