[ 2020 ] Aston Martin RedBull Racing F1 Team - Honda

[diffuser]

Argh. 0,052 to pole. Such a shame. Hopefully the progress is real and when Merc does indeed loose DAS next year (Toto seemed not so sure) it might finally be on?

I think we should all calm down from seeing that 0.0052 gap. The Merc hasn't been developped in months. You can guarantee that next year's car is going to be a monster again, even with all the downforce restrictions. They have had so much of a head start working on it. Just like every year really.

How much can they improve for next year? Let's say the engine brings .3, and the downforce is clawed back to late 2019 levels. Meaning they lose .1 from the chassis, or by some miracle break even. The RB chassis is on par, the engine has a tall mountain to climb, it needs to gain .6 to be at Mercedes level for next year. Honda's 2021 engine is the biggest step forward it has ever made, where it's usually .3. Really doubt they found .6 from the engine, combined improvement from engine and chassis has to equal half a second improvement to match what Mercedes will do next year.

A normal improvement will only keep them at bay of Mercedes, an incredible improvement would put them closer, it would take a miracle to overtake them. My bet is on the middle one.

This year's RB16 is half a second faster than it's predecessor at this point in the season and they are still a good .2-.5 per lap behind Mercedes on a normal track.

Merc said they're 2021 is already back to early 2020 levels, if you believe that.

[Cassius]

I think we should all calm down from seeing that 0.0052 gap. The Merc hasn't been developped in months. You can guarantee that next year's car is going to be a monster again, even with all the downforce restrictions. They have had so much of a head start working on it. Just like every year really.

How much can they improve for next year? Let's say the engine brings .3, and the downforce is clawed back to late 2019 levels. Meaning they lose .1 from the chassis, or by some miracle break even. The RB chassis is on par, the engine has a tall mountain to climb, it needs to gain .6 to be at Mercedes level for next year. Honda's 2021 engine is the biggest step forward it has ever made, where it's usually .3. Really doubt they found .6 from the engine, combined improvement from engine and chassis has to equal half a second improvement to match what Mercedes will do next year.

A normal improvement will only keep them at bay of Mercedes, an incredible improvement would put them closer, it would take a miracle to overtake them. My bet is on the middle one.

This year's RB16 is half a second faster than it's predecessor at this point in the season and they are still a good .2-.5 per lap behind Mercedes on a normal track.

Merc said they're 2021 is already back to early 2020 levels, if you believe that.

That was an unconfirmed rumour from an unreliable source (Italian Motorsport.com).
Would be hard to believe that you can find 10% of downforce in a few months. Plus, if Mercedes can do it, Red Bull would probably also able to do it, lthough they have less aerodynamicists.

Max is currently 0.4s per lap slower than Ham on a normal circuit. Mercedes has probably found another 0.2-0.3 in the past two months which they haven't put on the car yet as they focused on 2021.
With the Honda engine they could gain maybe 0.1-0.2s over Mercedes engine with ERS improvement (solving clipping), and some other improvements as Mercedes probably will find it a bit more difficult to find gains after this year's major improvements.

Therefore I still think Red Bull will have a 0.5s gap to Mercedes from the start of next year.

Of course I am hoping it will become smaller, but you can't just close a couple of tenths against such a good team as Mercedes.

Some thing RB still needs to improve.
Chicanes - fast change of direction. Currently losing a lot of time against Mercedes. Noticeable in Monza of course, but after aero updates also still visible in chicanes on Nurburgring and Imola - improvements to suspension and attachment of aero
Tyre management - degradation too high - suspension + rear grip, related to chicane issue.
Starts - vibrations with low revs of Honda engine
Clipping - better efficiency of MGU-H

[tangodjango]

How much can they improve for next year? Let's say the engine brings .3, and the downforce is clawed back to late 2019 levels. Meaning they lose .1 from the chassis, or by some miracle break even. The RB chassis is on par, the engine has a tall mountain to climb, it needs to gain .6 to be at Mercedes level for next year. Honda's 2021 engine is the biggest step forward it has ever made, where it's usually .3. Really doubt they found .6 from the engine, combined improvement from engine and chassis has to equal half a second improvement to match what Mercedes will do next year.

A normal improvement will only keep them at bay of Mercedes, an incredible improvement would put them closer, it would take a miracle to overtake them. My bet is on the middle one.

This year's RB16 is half a second faster than it's predecessor at this point in the season and they are still a good .2-.5 per lap behind Mercedes on a normal track.

Merc said they're 2021 is already back to early 2020 levels, if you believe that.

That was an unconfirmed rumour from an unreliable source (Italian Motorsport.com).
Would be hard to believe that you can find 10% of downforce in a few months. Plus, if Mercedes can do it, Red Bull would probably also able to do it, lthough they have less aerodynamicists.

Max is currently 0.4s per lap slower than Ham on a normal circuit. Mercedes has probably found another 0.2-0.3 in the past two months which they haven't put on the car yet as they focused on 2021.
With the Honda engine they could gain maybe 0.1-0.2s over Mercedes engine with ERS improvement (solving clipping), and some other improvements as Mercedes probably will find it a bit more difficult to find gains after this year's major improvements.

Therefore I still think Red Bull will have a 0.5s gap to Mercedes from the start of next year.

Of course I am hoping it will become smaller, but you can't just close a couple of tenths against such a good team as Mercedes.

Some thing RB still needs to improve.
Chicanes - fast change of direction. Currently losing a lot of time against Mercedes. Noticeable in Monza of course, but after aero updates also still visible in chicanes on Nurburgring and Imola - improvements to suspension and attachment of aero
Tyre management - degradation too high - suspension + rear grip, related to chicane issue.
Starts - vibrations with low revs of Honda engine
Clipping - better efficiency of MGU-H

Best bet for Honda is to work heavily on ERS+MGU-H efficiency. In pure ICE improvements they will be almost certainly though unfortunately be outgunned by Mercedes again who'll be putting a 20 HP minimum increase in next year's car.

[nzjrs]

who is Russels manager BTW anyone know. I did Google it but it seems unsure. is it Toto?

Its Toto, people in here casually saying Russel should join RB while overlooking that fact

Haha, Toto was Bottas manager for a while there too and I'd say those looking from the outside thought those 1 year extensions he kept getting might have showed sub-par managing or a little conflict of interest.

[El Scorchio]

who is Russels manager BTW anyone know. I did Google it but it seems unsure. is it Toto?

Its Toto, people in here casually saying Russel should join RB while overlooking that fact

Haha, Toto was Bottas manager for a while there too and I'd say those looking from the outside thought those 1 year extensions he kept getting might have showed sub-par managing or a little conflict of interest.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe he gave up managing Bottas when Bottas joined Mercedes.

I'd say either way it's less of a conflict of interest than Jean Todt's son managing Leclerc!

[godlameroso]

Merc said they're 2021 is already back to early 2020 levels, if you believe that.

That was an unconfirmed rumour from an unreliable source (Italian Motorsport.com).
Would be hard to believe that you can find 10% of downforce in a few months. Plus, if Mercedes can do it, Red Bull would probably also able to do it, lthough they have less aerodynamicists.

Max is currently 0.4s per lap slower than Ham on a normal circuit. Mercedes has probably found another 0.2-0.3 in the past two months which they haven't put on the car yet as they focused on 2021.
With the Honda engine they could gain maybe 0.1-0.2s over Mercedes engine with ERS improvement (solving clipping), and some other improvements as Mercedes probably will find it a bit more difficult to find gains after this year's major improvements.

Therefore I still think Red Bull will have a 0.5s gap to Mercedes from the start of next year.

Of course I am hoping it will become smaller, but you can't just close a couple of tenths against such a good team as Mercedes.

Some thing RB still needs to improve.
Chicanes - fast change of direction. Currently losing a lot of time against Mercedes. Noticeable in Monza of course, but after aero updates also still visible in chicanes on Nurburgring and Imola - improvements to suspension and attachment of aero
Tyre management - degradation too high - suspension + rear grip, related to chicane issue.
Starts - vibrations with low revs of Honda engine
Clipping - better efficiency of MGU-H

Best bet for Honda is to work heavily on ERS+MGU-H efficiency. In pure ICE improvements they will be almost certainly though unfortunately be outgunned by Mercedes again who'll be putting a 20 HP minimum increase in next year's car.

Honda is bringing a lot of performance over the winter. It's their biggest step forward since they started the hybrid era. Everything has improved, power, efficiency(redundant they're one in the same now) COG, foot-print, drivability, ERS stamina. Everything.

The step they took from 2018 to 2019 was worth around 3 tenths. The step to 2021 is bigger than that, in fact the step is big enough to neutralize the downforce penalty by itself.

However the new power unit also needs less cooling than the current version, this opens up space in the rear for more aero.

Not saying it's going to beat Mercedes, but Honda is confident they can compete.

Also the gap isn't .4 might have been earlier in the year. Might have been greater than that at times. Since Mugello the RB16 has gotten closer, in Bahrain the gap to Hamilton wasn't growing, in the races where it was a straight duel with Mercedes, Hamilton hasn't been able to finish 25 - 30 seconds out in front save for Portimao.

[tangodjango]

That was an unconfirmed rumour from an unreliable source (Italian Motorsport.com).
Would be hard to believe that you can find 10% of downforce in a few months. Plus, if Mercedes can do it, Red Bull would probably also able to do it, lthough they have less aerodynamicists.

Max is currently 0.4s per lap slower than Ham on a normal circuit. Mercedes has probably found another 0.2-0.3 in the past two months which they haven't put on the car yet as they focused on 2021.
With the Honda engine they could gain maybe 0.1-0.2s over Mercedes engine with ERS improvement (solving clipping), and some other improvements as Mercedes probably will find it a bit more difficult to find gains after this year's major improvements.

Therefore I still think Red Bull will have a 0.5s gap to Mercedes from the start of next year.

Of course I am hoping it will become smaller, but you can't just close a couple of tenths against such a good team as Mercedes.

Some thing RB still needs to improve.
Chicanes - fast change of direction. Currently losing a lot of time against Mercedes. Noticeable in Monza of course, but after aero updates also still visible in chicanes on Nurburgring and Imola - improvements to suspension and attachment of aero
Tyre management - degradation too high - suspension + rear grip, related to chicane issue.
Starts - vibrations with low revs of Honda engine
Clipping - better efficiency of MGU-H

Best bet for Honda is to work heavily on ERS+MGU-H efficiency. In pure ICE improvements they will be almost certainly though unfortunately be outgunned by Mercedes again who'll be putting a 20 HP minimum increase in next year's car.

Honda is bringing a lot of performance over the winter. It's their biggest step forward since they started the hybrid era. Everything has improved, power, efficiency(redundant they're one in the same now) COG, foot-print, drivability, ERS stamina. Everything.

The step they took from 2018 to 2019 was worth around 3 tenths. The step to 2021 is bigger than that, in fact the step is big enough to neutralize the downforce penalty by itself.

However the new power unit also needs less cooling than the current version, this opens up space in the rear for more aero.

Not saying it's going to beat Mercedes, but Honda is confident they can compete.

Also the gap isn't .4 might have been earlier in the year. Might have been greater than that at times. Since Mugello the RB16 has gotten closer, in Bahrain the gap to Hamilton wasn't growing, in the races where it was a straight duel with Mercedes, Hamilton hasn't been able to finish 25 - 30 seconds out in front save for Portimao.

We'll see next year. Hopefully they will be closer than this year but considering the Mercedes was last updated a small amount at Spa it's hard to believe any claims coming out of Red Bull though it's almost certain Honda will bring a good update.

[Marti_EF3]

Also they have one upgrade available during the season?

[godlameroso]

Also they have one upgrade available during the season?

Do they? I thought they had to run the same spec all year.

[bigblue]

Honda is bringing a lot of performance over the winter. It's their biggest step forward since they started the hybrid era. Everything has improved, power, efficiency(redundant they're one in the same now) COG, foot-print, drivability, ERS stamina. Everything.

The step they took from 2018 to 2019 was worth around 3 tenths. The step to 2021 is bigger than that, in fact the step is big enough to neutralize the downforce penalty by itself.

However the new power unit also needs less cooling than the current version, this opens up space in the rear for more aero.

[snip]

Where did you get this information from?

[godlameroso]

A magazine. A kind forum user was nice enough to translate a fair bit. Of course the other OEMs aren't standing still. I expect big upgrades from everyone because of recent developments in a few fields I have knowledge of for one reason or another. Particularly sensors, and materials. I'm sure the petrochems have made a few nice gains as well with the fuel, the lubricants have been in development with OEMs for a while now. So lubricant tech synergizes well with the current efficiency formula. Friction is 1/3rd of the waste heat in these engines, so less friction means less waste heat.

Stupidly lubricants are still tested by putting wear scars on bearings, you'd figure they'd rate them with something more sophisticated, but if it's stupid and works, it isn't stupid I guess.

Anyway way off track, long story short, new sensors, new materials, much better lubricants are a given for everyone. Dino juice, basically figured out a way to make it all burn like 112/87 with n-gasoline energy despite bio-fuel requirement, and likely won't be a problem when it switches to 10%. That's a big gain for everyone.

The rest depends on what the OEMs can do with their hardware, again materials means everyone is making big gains. It all depends on how everything works together, and who did it "better". Honda is pretty confident they have a good "sauce".

That is, they have all the right ingredients, all the technology is in place to deliver something very reliable and reasonably powerful, now it's a matter of engineering everything to the limit.

[diffuser]

How much can they improve for next year? Let's say the engine brings .3, and the downforce is clawed back to late 2019 levels. Meaning they lose .1 from the chassis, or by some miracle break even. The RB chassis is on par, the engine has a tall mountain to climb, it needs to gain .6 to be at Mercedes level for next year. Honda's 2021 engine is the biggest step forward it has ever made, where it's usually .3. Really doubt they found .6 from the engine, combined improvement from engine and chassis has to equal half a second improvement to match what Mercedes will do next year.

A normal improvement will only keep them at bay of Mercedes, an incredible improvement would put them closer, it would take a miracle to overtake them. My bet is on the middle one.

This year's RB16 is half a second faster than it's predecessor at this point in the season and they are still a good .2-.5 per lap behind Mercedes on a normal track.

Merc said they're 2021 is already back to early 2020 levels, if you believe that.

That was an unconfirmed rumour from an unreliable source (Italian Motorsport.com).
Would be hard to believe that you can find 10% of downforce in a few months. Plus, if Mercedes can do it, Red Bull would probably also able to do it, lthough they have less aerodynamicists.

Max is currently 0.4s per lap slower than Ham on a normal circuit. Mercedes has probably found another 0.2-0.3 in the past two months which they haven't put on the car yet as they focused on 2021.
With the Honda engine they could gain maybe 0.1-0.2s over Mercedes engine with ERS improvement (solving clipping), and some other improvements as Mercedes probably will find it a bit more difficult to find gains after this year's major improvements.

Therefore I still think Red Bull will have a 0.5s gap to Mercedes from the start of next year.

Of course I am hoping it will become smaller, but you can't just close a couple of tenths against such a good team as Mercedes.

Some thing RB still needs to improve.
Chicanes - fast change of direction. Currently losing a lot of time against Mercedes. Noticeable in Monza of course, but after aero updates also still visible in chicanes on Nurburgring and Imola - improvements to suspension and attachment of aero
Tyre management - degradation too high - suspension + rear grip, related to chicane issue.
Starts - vibrations with low revs of Honda engine
Clipping - better efficiency of MGU-H

I heard it on sky sports, not sure where they got it.

I will say Merc have more manpower and spend more $$. The odds suggest that they increasing the GAP on both PU and aero fronts. They have not shown in the past, unlike Ferrari, to waste thier $$$$s.

I don't mean to be insulting but you can play your game with make beleive .5 here .2 there. It comes down to $$$$ and Merc will be further up the road from RBR but everything is possible, just not likely. IMHO good luck untill 2022. Even then it will take some tweaking of those rules to close some loopholes. Atleast 2022 will be a start.

The odds suggest, the closer fight will come from behind. RP will have the 2020 Merc with a new floor. If RBR stay with Albon, the Odds go up for RP. If the two RP drivers and team can get thier acts together, look out.

[godlameroso]

We don't know how much this team can improve the chassis, we don't know how much Honda can improve. All it takes is for RB's upgrades to pan out, or for Mercedes to make a misstep somewhere for that .5 gap to evaporate, at least on certain tracks.

[diffuser]

We don't know how much this team can improve the chassis, we don't know how much Honda can improve. All it takes is for RB's upgrades to pan out, or for Mercedes to make a misstep somewhere for that .5 gap to evaporate, at least on certain tracks.

That's what I said. Just the odds are against everyone else for said reasons. You can add to that, Merc probably have a 3 month head start.

I guess you can say Merc have executed 8 years in a row. They have to screw up some time.

[Big Tea]

We don't know how much this team can improve the chassis, we don't know how much Honda can improve. All it takes is for RB's upgrades to pan out, or for Mercedes to make a misstep somewhere for that .5 gap to evaporate, at least on certain tracks.

That's what I said. Just the odds are against everyone else for said reasons. You can add to that, Merc probably have a 3 month head start.

I guess you can say Merc have executed 8 years in a row. They have to screw up some time.

Even if they do, I cant help thinking we have not seen full beanz from it this year. A balls up losing them 10% would mean 10% of chassis performance, which would put them back into the clutches of Red Bull, but if they turn the engine up to 11, and Hamilton feels he is being challenged, and turns him self up to 11, and the Merc team which is usually cursing at 9 (except this week) would still be hard work for Red Bull to chase down, especially with one car in the fight.

If RBR win the first 5, Merc would probably be close enough to be stil in it until the fix comes through.
They are not just good in one area, they are very good in all areas. A genuine hard battle would be nice though.